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Forecaster's Discussion--5/14/17

5/14/2017

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Good evening from Southern Connecticut Weather!
 
Happy Mother’s Day! All things considered, today was a solid day. Saturday was messy and cold, as a nor’easter made its way north, but we saw a mix of clouds and sun today with rain for some. For those of you longing for a string of warm and nice days, I have the forecast for you!
 
Monday
Monday is probably the worst day of the workweek. That said, I don’t expect a washout. The pesky area of low pressure that dominated our weekend will still be a player in our weather, with it spinning in the Gulf of Maine. That means that showers remain likely for much of Connecticut tomorrow. We should see a drying trend over the course of the day however, and I expect tomorrow to be as warm, if not a touch warmer, than today.
 
One thing to keep in mind—tomorrow will be breezy. The pressure gradient will be at play, making tomorrow a bit cooler than it might otherwise feel. 
Picture
​GFS showing the potential for showers tomorrow afternoon.
 
Tuesday-Thursday
Here comes the good part! After the storm departs for good, we see ridging taking hold. That means that mostly clear and warm conditions will dominate midweek. It feels like forever since we strung together a few good warm days, so get out there and enjoy it!
 
The warming trend really begins in earnest on Tuesday. Wednesday we see temperatures inland shoot into the 80s but by Thursday, we’re at the peak of the warm streak. Temperatures on Thursday could approach the low 90s in our typical warm spots. Who is up for a taste of summer!
 
Wednesday brings the low potential for showers, and Thursday brings the potential for thunderstorms as a cold front approaches. Chances remain low right now however.
Picture
EPS depiction of the upper level pattern over the next few days. Note the unusual nor'easter departing Monday being replaced with higher heights and strong ridging. Can you say warm up?
​Friday-Saturday
The first half of the weekend looks nice for a change. There may be a question of timing with regard to the cold front, but I think the pattern will be progressive enough to keep the flow moving and with it, the cold front. I expect Friday to be a nice day. With northwest flow coming in the wake of the front, I expect a cooler and less humid day. This will continue into Saturday. 
Sunday
Next Sunday looks like it could be wet, as an area of low pressure passes through the region. How strong it is, how quickly it moves, and how much precipitation may fall is still to be determined. I’ll introduce chances for it, but it’s not something to be concerned about right now.
 
The Dailies:
Monday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. Breezy. Highs in the mid 60s. Chance of rain 40%.
 
Tuesday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid to upper 70s.
 
Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid 80s inland and upper 70s at the shore. Chance of showers 10%.
 
Thursday: Mostly sunny with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 80s to low 90s inland. Highs in the mid 80s at the shore. Chance of rain 30%.
 
Friday: Sunny and warm. Highs in the mid to upper 70s.
 
Saturday: Sunny and warm. Highs in the low to mid 70s.
 
Sunday: Increasing clouds with a chance of rain showers. Highs in the low 70s. Chance of rain 30%.
 
Final Note
This will be my last discussion for a few weeks as I am traveling. I will be participating in a meteorology field studies program for two weeks in the Midwest. In addition to fulfilling a lifelong desire, I am hoping this opportunity will help me become a better severe weather forecaster. Yes, we will be storm chasing. Yes, I’m super excited. No, I do NOT hope it plays out like a Twister sequel.
 
Maybe I’ll be able to post a few pictures or videos! Stay tuned.
 
-DB
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    Southern Connecticut Weather is brought to you by Timothy Wrightington Jr. (TW), Spencer Aronstein(SA), Greg Petridis (GP), and Don Bell (DB).

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