Good evening from Southern Connecticut Weather!
Stop me if you’ve heard this before: rain is possible this weekend. The up and down pattern that has allowed us to see periods of wonderful weather and periods of meh continues into this weekend, with a coastal storm taking shape.
We’re ten days away from Memorial Day, the unofficial start to summer, and just a few additional days away from the start of meteorological summer on June 1. Summer lovers, take heart! I might have some good news for you at the end of the forecast…
Saturday
Tomorrow our coastal low takes shape and begins its crawl up the coast. Fortunately for us, the models have really backed off of a significant rain event across the state. This is still a close call to me, so I think everyone should expect showers and periods of heavier rain all weekend. For Saturday, the morning hours look fine, but we could be dealing with showers by early afternoon.
At this time, I think most events will be ok. The shoreline is the place most likely to see consistent rain, and that is far from a lock.
Stop me if you’ve heard this before: rain is possible this weekend. The up and down pattern that has allowed us to see periods of wonderful weather and periods of meh continues into this weekend, with a coastal storm taking shape.
We’re ten days away from Memorial Day, the unofficial start to summer, and just a few additional days away from the start of meteorological summer on June 1. Summer lovers, take heart! I might have some good news for you at the end of the forecast…
Saturday
Tomorrow our coastal low takes shape and begins its crawl up the coast. Fortunately for us, the models have really backed off of a significant rain event across the state. This is still a close call to me, so I think everyone should expect showers and periods of heavier rain all weekend. For Saturday, the morning hours look fine, but we could be dealing with showers by early afternoon.
At this time, I think most events will be ok. The shoreline is the place most likely to see consistent rain, and that is far from a lock.
GFS simulation of the coastal storm on Saturday. Note that little precipitation makes it into the state.
Contrast that with the high resolution NAM, which has a closer track and more significant precipitation. I’m not totally buying this model or run for this event, but it illustrates the uncertainty that still exists for the weekend. Umbrellas will be good thing to keep on hand.
Sunday
Overnight Saturday and early Sunday will see rain, cooler temperatures, and breezy conditions. Much of Sunday morning after sunrise and the afternoon will be dry as the storm departs, but a deep trough bringing cooler temps and the chance of showers will be around to make it feel more like a dreary mid-Spring day. Again, the closer to the coast you are, the more likely you are to see rain.
Monday/Tuesday
Monday and Tuesday are nearly identical. In the wake of the departing coastal, another area of low pressure is expected to form, bringing the chance of showers. Temperatures slowly recover, but the slow recovery is worth it as we move into a warmer regime.
GFS showing another cutoff low slowly meander up the coast. The track of this little bugger has been all over the place, but the slight chance of showers and cloudy conditions are remain regardless of the track.
Wednesday-Friday
There is strong agreement that Wednesday is the first day of a fast break toward summer. The pattern that allowed repeated shots of cooler than normal weather begins a (temporary?) fade, and in its place come a regime southwest flow as a result of a building ridge. The result? Summer like conditions by the end of the week! Rain may be on the table by Friday, but I’m not biting yet.
Sunday
Overnight Saturday and early Sunday will see rain, cooler temperatures, and breezy conditions. Much of Sunday morning after sunrise and the afternoon will be dry as the storm departs, but a deep trough bringing cooler temps and the chance of showers will be around to make it feel more like a dreary mid-Spring day. Again, the closer to the coast you are, the more likely you are to see rain.
Monday/Tuesday
Monday and Tuesday are nearly identical. In the wake of the departing coastal, another area of low pressure is expected to form, bringing the chance of showers. Temperatures slowly recover, but the slow recovery is worth it as we move into a warmer regime.
GFS showing another cutoff low slowly meander up the coast. The track of this little bugger has been all over the place, but the slight chance of showers and cloudy conditions are remain regardless of the track.
Wednesday-Friday
There is strong agreement that Wednesday is the first day of a fast break toward summer. The pattern that allowed repeated shots of cooler than normal weather begins a (temporary?) fade, and in its place come a regime southwest flow as a result of a building ridge. The result? Summer like conditions by the end of the week! Rain may be on the table by Friday, but I’m not biting yet.
In a special sneak peak of Memorial Day weekend take a look at the Euro Ensembles of 500mb heights (top) and the GFS Ensembles (bottom) showing warmer than normal temperatures. Summer time temps inbound for the unofficial start of summer? Like Greg, I am wary of these long range phantom warm ups, but I think that the one from Wednesday through Friday at least is the real deal.
The dailies:
Saturday: Chance of rain showers during the afternoon, with a steadier rain possible overnight. Otherwise, mostly cloudy. Highs in the upper 60s to low 70s inland. Chance of rain 60%.
Sunday: Chance of rain before 10am, with off and on showers possible through the remainder of the day. Otherwise, fog early, mostly cloudy, breezy and seasonably cool. Highs in the low to mid 60s. Chance of rain 50% early and 30% in the afternoon.
Monday: Chance of rain showers in the afternoon. Otherwise, mostly cloudy. Highs in the mid to upper 60s. Chance of rain 30%.
Tuesday: Chance of rain showers in the morning. Otherwise, mostly cloudy. Highs in the mid to upper 60s. Chance of rain 40%.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny and warm. Highs in the upper 70s to low 80s.
Thursday: Mostly sunny and warm. Highs in the low to mid 80s.
Friday: Partly cloudy and warm. Highs in the low to mid 80s.
Thank you for reading!
-DB
Saturday: Chance of rain showers during the afternoon, with a steadier rain possible overnight. Otherwise, mostly cloudy. Highs in the upper 60s to low 70s inland. Chance of rain 60%.
Sunday: Chance of rain before 10am, with off and on showers possible through the remainder of the day. Otherwise, fog early, mostly cloudy, breezy and seasonably cool. Highs in the low to mid 60s. Chance of rain 50% early and 30% in the afternoon.
Monday: Chance of rain showers in the afternoon. Otherwise, mostly cloudy. Highs in the mid to upper 60s. Chance of rain 30%.
Tuesday: Chance of rain showers in the morning. Otherwise, mostly cloudy. Highs in the mid to upper 60s. Chance of rain 40%.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny and warm. Highs in the upper 70s to low 80s.
Thursday: Mostly sunny and warm. Highs in the low to mid 80s.
Friday: Partly cloudy and warm. Highs in the low to mid 80s.
Thank you for reading!
-DB
