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Forecasters Discussion--6/26/16

6/26/2016

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Hello all,

This forecast will be short and sweet, as we continue to enjoy this stretch of quiet weather. The week ahead looks mostly dry, though there are rain chances as a front reaches the region and is slow to exit during the middle of the week. 

Monday
Tomorrow looks like another beautiful day, with mostly sunny conditions for the majority of the day and increasing clouds toward the late afternoon and evening hours. There is a very slight chance of showers, but as you will see in this forecast, I lean toward the drier end of the spectrum.

Tuesday/Wednesday
This period looks a bit unsettled as a frontal boundary approaches and takes its time to move through the area. Tuesday evening looks most unsettled, but I think there could be a chance of showers--some heavy at times--Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday afternoon.  By evening, I expect the front to move through, which will usher in less humid and nicer conditions. To be clear, Tuesday and Wednesday do not look like washouts, but you should have the umbrella handy.
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GFS simulation of Monday evening through Wednesday evening. I think it is overdone at both ends of the timeline, but I think the overall idea of shower chances Tuesday and Wednesday is correct. 
Thursday/Friday
Thursday and Friday are beautiful summertime days in the wake of the front passing. Thursday currently looks a little cooler and drier humidity wise than Friday, as we probably see more southerly flow ahead of another system. 

Saturday/Sunday
The holiday weekend looks fine at this point, but we should keep a close eye out on a potential northern stream system that could bring showers Saturday afternoon and a potential low to our south. Again, I'm thinking we stay mostly dry at this point, but stay tuned for forecasts later this week. 

First look at July 4th
For those wondering...first indications are that Independence Day will be dominated by northwest flow and no large storms in the area. Could we see nice temperatures, low humidity, and sunny skies on the 4th? I like our chances right now!
Picture
It's early, but here's the Euro highlighting the potential with nice 850mb temperatures, NW flow, and no storm systems in the area early on the 4th of July. Hopefully it's right!

The dailies
Monday: Mostly sunny skies and breezy, with increasing clouds by evening. Highs in the low to mid 80s. Chance of rain 20%. 

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms by afternoon. Highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Chance of rain 50%.

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. Some could be heavy at times. Highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Chance of rain 50%.
 
Thursday: Sunny. Highs in the mid 80s. 

Friday: Mostly sunny and more humid. Highs in the mid to upper 80s. 
 
Saturday: Partly sunny with a chance of showers late. Highs in the low to mid 80s. Chance of rain 30%. 

Sunday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the low to mid 80s. 

Thanks for reading!

-DB
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    Southern Connecticut Weather is brought to you by Timothy Wrightington Jr. (TW), Spencer Aronstein(SA), Greg Petridis (GP), and Don Bell (DB).

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