Good afternoon from Southern Connecticut Weather!
Welcome to the dog days of summer. Hazy, hot, humid; rinse and repeat. I fully admit that I am an interesting character—this time of year I love tracking heat, but with us losing sunlight each day and just 50 days until Labor Day, I’m starting to long for the fairs, football, and fun of fall.
We’re approaching the peak of what is historically our warmest part of the year, and the heat is on. Many of our inland locations have seen three of our last four days top 90 degrees. We’ll get close again today, and really warm up tomorrow, but what I’m tracking is the possibility of what I call “big heat” temperatures above 95, by the end of the week.
Today
Similar to yesterday, expect a warm to hot day across most of the state with southwest flow dominating. This will bring the humidity as well, but unlike yesterday, I’m not sure we get widespread 90s. If that is the case, that’ll keep us from achieving an official heat wave, which consists of three consecutive days over 90.
By mid afternoon, we should be keeping an eye to the sky for the possibility of typical summertime thunderstorms. I think the odds that people see anything are relatively low.
Welcome to the dog days of summer. Hazy, hot, humid; rinse and repeat. I fully admit that I am an interesting character—this time of year I love tracking heat, but with us losing sunlight each day and just 50 days until Labor Day, I’m starting to long for the fairs, football, and fun of fall.
We’re approaching the peak of what is historically our warmest part of the year, and the heat is on. Many of our inland locations have seen three of our last four days top 90 degrees. We’ll get close again today, and really warm up tomorrow, but what I’m tracking is the possibility of what I call “big heat” temperatures above 95, by the end of the week.
Today
Similar to yesterday, expect a warm to hot day across most of the state with southwest flow dominating. This will bring the humidity as well, but unlike yesterday, I’m not sure we get widespread 90s. If that is the case, that’ll keep us from achieving an official heat wave, which consists of three consecutive days over 90.
By mid afternoon, we should be keeping an eye to the sky for the possibility of typical summertime thunderstorms. I think the odds that people see anything are relatively low.
Short term guidance (HRRR) showing the potential for showers and thunderstorms, especially in southern Connecticut, later this afternoon.
Monday
Expect more of everything tomorrow. More humidity, more heat, and our best chance for rain of the week. Temperatures away from the shore should rise in the low to mid 90s.
Expect more of everything tomorrow. More humidity, more heat, and our best chance for rain of the week. Temperatures away from the shore should rise in the low to mid 90s.
High resolution NAM showing widespread 90s along the east coast tomorrow. The valleys of CT are the best spot to see another hot day tomorrow.
By afternoon, the forecast becomes a bit more difficult in determining how much of a chance we have for widespread thunderstorms. A cold front is likely to be hung up well to our west, but with a little instability and some shear, we could see a little activity. Currently, guidance weakens most storms before they reach Connecticut, and with marginal parameters at best I do not anticipate a significant severe weather threat. Strong thunderstorms cannot be ruled out however.
High resolution NAM representation for tomorrow. Hot, then stormy as the cold front moves through.
Tuesday/Wednesday
Tuesday and Wednesday are the pick of the week, with reduced humidity and lower temperatures after the cold front passes early Tuesday morning. Expect plenty of sun and dry conditions!
Tuesday and Wednesday are the pick of the week, with reduced humidity and lower temperatures after the cold front passes early Tuesday morning. Expect plenty of sun and dry conditions!
GFS 850 temps and streamlines. Note the lower 850 temps, high pressure, and northerly/northwest flow Wednesday morning!
Thursday
Thursday is a transition day for Connecticut, as the strong high pressure that gives us nice weather positions itself offshore and allows for the return of a warmer and more humid flow. The chance of rain and storms still looks very low, with the main story being the return of temperatures approaching 90. This is only the beginning.
Friday/Saturday
As I mentioned at the start of this post, I’m closely watching Friday and the weekend for the arrival of big heat. The “heat dome” many of you have heard of develops this week in the central US, and will provide us with the potential of some real summertime scorcher days. Currently, I am not terribly confident that we’ll see it play out as currently projected, but I have higher confidence that the flow from this massive ridge will put us in a position to see increased shower and thunderstorm chances as we head into the weekend.
Thursday is a transition day for Connecticut, as the strong high pressure that gives us nice weather positions itself offshore and allows for the return of a warmer and more humid flow. The chance of rain and storms still looks very low, with the main story being the return of temperatures approaching 90. This is only the beginning.
Friday/Saturday
As I mentioned at the start of this post, I’m closely watching Friday and the weekend for the arrival of big heat. The “heat dome” many of you have heard of develops this week in the central US, and will provide us with the potential of some real summertime scorcher days. Currently, I am not terribly confident that we’ll see it play out as currently projected, but I have higher confidence that the flow from this massive ridge will put us in a position to see increased shower and thunderstorm chances as we head into the weekend.
GFS Ensemble representation of the development of the Midwest ridge over the course of the week. It doesn't need to be right over us to get hot weather in this region.
A GEFS snapshot of how the upper level pattern translates to the surface. The notable thing about the above two images is the expanse of heat.
The dailies:
Sunday: Mostly sunny with a chance of showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and early evening. Highs in the upper 80s inland and mid 80s at the shore. Chance of rain 30%.
Monday: Hot and humid. Breezy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms by the afternoon and evening. Highs in the low to mid 90s (except SE CT). Chance of rain 50%.
Tuesday: Sunny with lower humidity. Highs in the low to mid 80s.
Wednesday: Sunny and nice. Highs in the low 80s.
Thursday: Sunny with increasing humidity. Highs in the mid to upper 80s.
Friday: Sunny, hot, and humid. Highs in the low to mid 90s inland with highs near 90 at the shore.
Saturday: Sunny, hot, and humid with a chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening. Highs in the mid to upper 90s inland with highs in the lower 90s at the shore. Chance of rain 30%.
Thank you for reading SCW. Get out to enjoy the beach and pool!
-DB
The dailies:
Sunday: Mostly sunny with a chance of showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and early evening. Highs in the upper 80s inland and mid 80s at the shore. Chance of rain 30%.
Monday: Hot and humid. Breezy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms by the afternoon and evening. Highs in the low to mid 90s (except SE CT). Chance of rain 50%.
Tuesday: Sunny with lower humidity. Highs in the low to mid 80s.
Wednesday: Sunny and nice. Highs in the low 80s.
Thursday: Sunny with increasing humidity. Highs in the mid to upper 80s.
Friday: Sunny, hot, and humid. Highs in the low to mid 90s inland with highs near 90 at the shore.
Saturday: Sunny, hot, and humid with a chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening. Highs in the mid to upper 90s inland with highs in the lower 90s at the shore. Chance of rain 30%.
Thank you for reading SCW. Get out to enjoy the beach and pool!
-DB
