Woof. My last few forecasts have been awful. Hopefully I get better this week. Instead of a rainy period, summer came back with a vengeance last week, giving much of Connecticut a heat wave. The ridge that brought big heat to much of the Mid-Atlantic and Midwest was strong and expansive enough to push heat into Connecticut. It should be no surprise that it happened as our hottest period of the season historically just passed.
When comparing years, I like to look at the number of heat waves and 90 degree days. It’s kind of like snowfall to me—unless something else big happens, it’s what everyone remembers. Compared to last year, inland Connecticut has had a similar summer, with one more 90 degree day than last year at this time. The shoreline however, has been much hotter, with shoreline locations having more than double the number of 90 degree days so far compared to last year.
We’re into the last third of July. Labor Day and back to school season is closer than you think! If you’re starting to long for fall prepare for a taste this week.
The daytime hours look pretty good. Today started cloudy, but drier air moving in has allowed for much of the cloud cover to pull back. I think we’ll see a mix of sun and clouds today, with a slight chance of showers later in the afternoon and evening and a greater chance overnight. With the sun breaking through right now, temperatures are already in the upper 70s in most places. I expect temperatures to be in the low to mid 80s today. Still humid, but not as bad as during the heat wave.
Tomorrow looks wet and cool. This will be a taste of fall, with temperatures struggling to rise into the 70s. The guidance is locked onto a period of rain overspreading the area tomorrow, with the heaviest occurring during the morning. There may be a few rumbles of thunder but nothing strong or severe. Guidance is a bit split on how much the rain lingers, but I would expect off and on showers most of the day. It’s an umbrella day.
Tuesday is a less wet version of Monday. The flow remains northeasterly, keeping us cool. I expect the chance of showers to continue, but diminish over time as high pressure noses in and begins to take over. It’s probably worth holding onto the umbrella, though I think most folks won’t see anything substantial.
Wednesday is the pick of the week. High pressure takes full control, and with it, comes a real nice summer day. Thursday looks nice too, continuing the stretch of seasonable to below average temperatures and lower humidity. Enjoy it! By Thursday evening we are watching our next rainmaker.
Unfortunately, by Friday and maybe even Saturday we are seeing a cold front slowly move through the region, sparking showers and potential thunderstorms. Questions remain over how quickly this front moves and timing. Saturday looks more uncertain than Friday in terms of rain chances, and I’ll leave the details to future shifts.
Sunday: Mix between sun and clouds. Chance of showers late this evening. Highs in the low to mid 80s. Chance of rain 20%.
Monday: Rain, some of which may be heavy at times. Highs in the mid to upper 60s. Chance of rain 90%.
Tuesday: Mostly cloudy with lingering showers. Highs in the mid 60s to low 70s in the typically warmer spots. Chance of rain 30%.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 70s to low 80s.
Thursday: Partly sunny early with increasing clouds and showers overnight. Highs in the low 80s. Chance of rain late 40%.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain and thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Chance of rain 50%.
Saturday: Mostly cloudy early with improving conditions. Highs in the mid to upper 70s. Chance of rain 30%.
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Have a great week!