Good afternoon from Southern Connecticut Weather!
Another day, another scorcher. As we roll into the last week of July, we continue our big heat wave—the strongest and longest in years—and look ahead toward more thunderstorm chances.
First things first. Today will likely be another day in the heat wave for much of Connecticut. We’re still under a northwest flow regime, which will keep the humidity down. Although a touch cooler, most spots should still touch the lower 90s.
Another day, another scorcher. As we roll into the last week of July, we continue our big heat wave—the strongest and longest in years—and look ahead toward more thunderstorm chances.
First things first. Today will likely be another day in the heat wave for much of Connecticut. We’re still under a northwest flow regime, which will keep the humidity down. Although a touch cooler, most spots should still touch the lower 90s.
HRRR showing low to mid 90s away from the shore today. Image courtesy of WeatherBell Analytics.
Latest GFS showing pretty toasty 850mb temperatures, but northwest flow keeping humidity at bay.
The real story for the week is Monday, and we have two big headlines which I alluded to yesterday…
Monday—Big Heat and Big Storms
Tomorrow is the peak of the heat wave and could very well be the hottest day of the summer. Heat Advisories have already been issued for much of the state, as we expect heat indices hovering around and over 100 with dew points pushing 70--tomorrow will be oppressive and heat related illnesses could happen to anyone. Although the entire state is not currently covered by a Heat Advisory, I anticipate the rest of the state being covered by tomorrow.
Monday—Big Heat and Big Storms
Tomorrow is the peak of the heat wave and could very well be the hottest day of the summer. Heat Advisories have already been issued for much of the state, as we expect heat indices hovering around and over 100 with dew points pushing 70--tomorrow will be oppressive and heat related illnesses could happen to anyone. Although the entire state is not currently covered by a Heat Advisory, I anticipate the rest of the state being covered by tomorrow.
The GFS showing the heat index in Connecticut tomorrow afternoon reaching near 100 for most and 100 in Hartford.
Even if the entire state isn't eventually covered, take the heat seriously!
In the interest of continuity, below are some of the graphics I posted yesterday on identifying heat related illnesses. As someone who has suffered and seen family suffer first hand from sudden heat illnesses even when not really exerting themselves, it is critical to hydrate, take breaks, and do everything you can to check on the elderly and others.
In the interest of continuity, below are some of the graphics I posted yesterday on identifying heat related illnesses. As someone who has suffered and seen family suffer first hand from sudden heat illnesses even when not really exerting themselves, it is critical to hydrate, take breaks, and do everything you can to check on the elderly and others.
850mb temperatures tomorrow should be able to support temperatures in the mid to upper 90s, especially in our urban centers. What could hinder the temperatures though will be cloud debris in the region. I think we will have enough clearing to really heat things up, especially in the CT River valley.
Aside from the heat, tomorrow could also be the most active day of the week in terms of thunderstorm activity. With this hot and moist airmass in place, we will see a shortwave pass through the region, potentially sparking scattered thunderstorms. The CAPE will be there, and although shear will be lacking early, I expect it to increase a bit during the day. The afternoon and evening will be the target time period, and any convection that forms could last through the evening and overnight hours. Some of these storms could be strong to severe, with wind being the biggest severe hazard. This bears close monitoring, and you can bet that SCW will be here to provide important updates should tomorrow turn stormy.
Aside from the heat, tomorrow could also be the most active day of the week in terms of thunderstorm activity. With this hot and moist airmass in place, we will see a shortwave pass through the region, potentially sparking scattered thunderstorms. The CAPE will be there, and although shear will be lacking early, I expect it to increase a bit during the day. The afternoon and evening will be the target time period, and any convection that forms could last through the evening and overnight hours. Some of these storms could be strong to severe, with wind being the biggest severe hazard. This bears close monitoring, and you can bet that SCW will be here to provide important updates should tomorrow turn stormy.
The latest high resolution NAM showing the potential for some pretty potent storms tomorrow afternoon and evening.
Tuesday-Thursday
The cold front associated with the shortwave passes through Monday night, and although you’d usually think that the cold front and storms would signal the end of our heat wave, not so this time. The heat wave continues, though in less extreme fashion, with highs in the lower to mid 90s in the warmest areas and lower humidity when compared to Monday. This heat wave does not go out with a bang, rather, it slowly fades away.
The cold front associated with the shortwave passes through Monday night, and although you’d usually think that the cold front and storms would signal the end of our heat wave, not so this time. The heat wave continues, though in less extreme fashion, with highs in the lower to mid 90s in the warmest areas and lower humidity when compared to Monday. This heat wave does not go out with a bang, rather, it slowly fades away.
It’s a subtle thing to look at, but over time, the 850mb temperatures begin to decline, heralding the end of the blowtorch and a return to…seasonably hot conditions.
Friday-Saturday
By Friday, we could be talking about *gasp* rain! I know a lot of you have been reaching out about this abnormally dry pattern recently. Overall, I don’t see a significant change in the overall pattern to bring us consistent precipitation, but Friday may just provide the opportunity for some rain showers for our parched gardens and lawns. I currently don’t expect much however as we return to dry conditions Saturday.
Friday-Saturday
By Friday, we could be talking about *gasp* rain! I know a lot of you have been reaching out about this abnormally dry pattern recently. Overall, I don’t see a significant change in the overall pattern to bring us consistent precipitation, but Friday may just provide the opportunity for some rain showers for our parched gardens and lawns. I currently don’t expect much however as we return to dry conditions Saturday.
GFS for Friday afternoon.
Latest drought update. Now, we don't dry out like California, but this has been an unusually dry period by New England standards.
Overall, the main story is the continuation of the heat wave, which will reach its peak tomorrow. Heat is an underrated weather event which can have a quick and severe impact on people exerting themselves outside or people who are unable to get cool. Contact your local officials for information on cooling centers and if you see pets or children locked inside cars.
The Dailies
Sunday: Sunny and hot. Highs in the low to mid 90s away from the immediate shore.
Monday: Hazy, hot, and humid. Highs in the mid to upper 90s statewide with widespread heat indices over 100. An isolated spot could reach 100. Chance of strong to severe thunderstorms late in the afternoon and during the evening. Chance of rain 50%.
Tuesday: Sunny and hot with decreased humidity. Highs in the low to mid 90s statewide.
Wednesday: Sunny and hot. Highs in the low to mid 90s inland with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s at the shore.
Thursday: Sunny and hot. Highs in the upper 80s to low 90s inland with highs in the mid to upper 80s at the shore.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. Highs in the mid to upper 80s. Chance of rain 30%.
Saturday: Sunny and seasonably warm. Highs in the mid to upper 80s.
Please like, share, ask questions and follow us for continuing updates on the heat and the potential for thunderstorms on Facebook and Twitter @SouthernCTWX.
Thank you!
-DB
The Dailies
Sunday: Sunny and hot. Highs in the low to mid 90s away from the immediate shore.
Monday: Hazy, hot, and humid. Highs in the mid to upper 90s statewide with widespread heat indices over 100. An isolated spot could reach 100. Chance of strong to severe thunderstorms late in the afternoon and during the evening. Chance of rain 50%.
Tuesday: Sunny and hot with decreased humidity. Highs in the low to mid 90s statewide.
Wednesday: Sunny and hot. Highs in the low to mid 90s inland with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s at the shore.
Thursday: Sunny and hot. Highs in the upper 80s to low 90s inland with highs in the mid to upper 80s at the shore.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. Highs in the mid to upper 80s. Chance of rain 30%.
Saturday: Sunny and seasonably warm. Highs in the mid to upper 80s.
Please like, share, ask questions and follow us for continuing updates on the heat and the potential for thunderstorms on Facebook and Twitter @SouthernCTWX.
Thank you!
-DB
