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Forecaster's Discussion--8/27/17

8/27/2017

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Good morning from Southern Connecticut Weather.
 
Before talking about the week ahead, let’s talk about the week that was. Two major events impacted the country. First, the total solar eclipse. For the first time in decades, millions of Americans were able to see the moon align itself in front of the sun, bringing the breathtaking sight of totality to millions. I was in South Carolina and able to take in the sight, and it was a truly incredible moment.
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​Unfortunately, a devastating weather event quickly overtook the eclipse coverage—Hurricane Harvey. For those that follow tropical season closely, you know that Harvey is now one of the newest additions to the list of Cape Verde systems—waves that start off the coast of Africa and travel all the way across the Atlantic to hit land. Harvey rapidly strengthened to a category four hurricane as it hit Texas, becoming the first major (category 3+) storm to hit America since the historic 2005 season and the first category four storm to hit the US since 2004. 
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Harvey was incredibly strong as it was making landfall, bringing legitimate category four conditions to areas like Port Aransas and Rockport. In this image I captured right before landfall, you can see the true power of Harvey. Note how the eye isn't round. The eye became a home for vortex rossby waves, a sign of an exceptionally powerful core. 

​Now, Harvey is entering an even more deadly phase. With the steering currents weak, Harvey is bringing exceptional flooding to southeast Texas. Some areas will receive feet of rain. Years’ worth of rain is falling in Texas. The images are heartbreaking and we're just getting started. 
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Harvey is a reminder that everyone in a hurricane zone must be prepared now for tropical systems. Do not wait for a threat to have the supplies needed to handle a hurricane. We are only now getting close to the peak of hurricane season, which happens in September. From Irene to Sandy, Connecticut is not immune to being impacted. I doubt that this will be the only threat to the US this season…
 
Which brings me to the week ahead.
  
Today-Tuesday
The first few days of the week continue our stretch of beautiful and seasonable weather. High pressure remains in place, bringing sunny conditions and temperatures in the 70s. There really isn’t a whole lot to say other than enjoy!
 
Wednesday-Thursday
By Tuesday night however, we’re watching an area to our south. In fact, it may be tropical in nature. Currently designated as Invest 92L by the National Hurricane Center, this tropical wave like Harvey came from the African coast. Unlike Harvey, it is languishing in very hostile conditions off the coast of Florida. Over the next few days, we expect it to move north, and hug the coast of South Carolina and North Carolina. By the time it reaches North Carolina, it is expected to merge with a cold front, and begin to move northeast and out to sea. Good for us, because this would have been a powerful storm. 
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Currently, we do NOT expect any direct impacts, though watch for high surf and potential rip currents. It is something that we will continue to watch however, and will keep you informed if things change. 
We expect rain showers to approach the region on Thursday, as a cold front begins to push through the area. It doesn’t look like a washout currently, and I’ll leave it to future forecasts to hone in on timing, which currently look to be the afternoon hours.
 
Friday-Saturday
As we begin September and Labor Day Weekend, the forecast looks like fall. The cold front moves through the region and we see below normal temperatures. Sunny, cool, and low humidity is a great way to start a holiday weekend!
 
The Dailies
Sunday: Sunny and seasonably warm. Highs in the mid to upper 70s.
 
Monday: Sunny and seasonably warm. Highs in the mid to upper 70s.
 
Tuesday: Increasing clouds but still nice. Highs in the low to mid 70s.
 
Wednesday: Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of showers from the southern system. Highs in the low to mid 70s. Chance of rain 10%.
 
Thursday: Partly cloudy with a chance of showers. Highs in the mid to upper 70s. Chance of rain 50%.
 
Friday: Sunny and cool. Highs in the upper 60s.
 
Saturday: Sunny and slightly warmer. Highs in the low to mid 70s.
 
As always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts! Hit the buttons below to join!
 
Have a great week!
 
-DB
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    Southern Connecticut Weather is brought to you by Timothy Wrightington Jr. (TW), Spencer Aronstein(SA), Greg Petridis (GP), and Don Bell (DB).

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