Good evening from SCW.
October is almost here! The leaves are starting to change in a more noticeable way, and although we're still a bit warmer than we should be this time of year overall, the step down toward colder conditions continues. As we head into October, the average high temperature for inland areas is just below 70. Keep that in mind as we forecast warmer than normal temperatures...that are plenty comfortable!
The forecast for the week ahead is a bit lower confidence than usual, with multiple rain chances but none looking like a washout.
Monday/Tuesday
October begins wet, as a cold front approaches the region on Monday bringing increasingly cloudy conditions. I expect a mostly dry day, with isolated showers possible. Things will change during the evening hours, as the cold front approaches and gets hung up.
Tuesday looks a bit more wet, though I am not leaning toward a washout. We should see an increase of showers during the afternoon and evening hours, and some rain could be heavy at times. Temperatures are tricky because we're not quite sure where the front will hang up, but my current guess is that we remain relatively warm.
October is almost here! The leaves are starting to change in a more noticeable way, and although we're still a bit warmer than we should be this time of year overall, the step down toward colder conditions continues. As we head into October, the average high temperature for inland areas is just below 70. Keep that in mind as we forecast warmer than normal temperatures...that are plenty comfortable!
The forecast for the week ahead is a bit lower confidence than usual, with multiple rain chances but none looking like a washout.
Monday/Tuesday
October begins wet, as a cold front approaches the region on Monday bringing increasingly cloudy conditions. I expect a mostly dry day, with isolated showers possible. Things will change during the evening hours, as the cold front approaches and gets hung up.
Tuesday looks a bit more wet, though I am not leaning toward a washout. We should see an increase of showers during the afternoon and evening hours, and some rain could be heavy at times. Temperatures are tricky because we're not quite sure where the front will hang up, but my current guess is that we remain relatively warm.
High resolution NAM depicting shower and heavier rain chances from Monday morning to early Wednesday morning.
Wednesday/Thursday
The middle of the week looks warm, as we return to dry and quiet conditions on Wednesday. However, a cold front will approach again on Thursday, and in advance of it we should see shower chances. I don't think we're looking at a washout here either, but we'll keep an eye on it.
Friday/Weekend
Unfortunately, the next weekend is uncertain. The overall pattern remains something of interest. We're still seeing a lot of ridging, that makes conditions favorable for warmer (and at times, much warmer than normal) temperatures. This weekend we see another big ridge slide toward and over the region. Looking at multiple layers of the atmosphere show that we could see a much warmer than normal weekend, but this far out, I think this is overdone and we stay on the edge of things.
Bottom line? Stay tuned to our midweek forecast.
Wednesday/Thursday
The middle of the week looks warm, as we return to dry and quiet conditions on Wednesday. However, a cold front will approach again on Thursday, and in advance of it we should see shower chances. I don't think we're looking at a washout here either, but we'll keep an eye on it.
Friday/Weekend
Unfortunately, the next weekend is uncertain. The overall pattern remains something of interest. We're still seeing a lot of ridging, that makes conditions favorable for warmer (and at times, much warmer than normal) temperatures. This weekend we see another big ridge slide toward and over the region. Looking at multiple layers of the atmosphere show that we could see a much warmer than normal weekend, but this far out, I think this is overdone and we stay on the edge of things.
Bottom line? Stay tuned to our midweek forecast.
Above, the 500mb depiction of Friday-early Sunday on the European Model. Below, the 850mb depiction of temperature anomalies. Well above normal above the ground could easily translate to above normal temperatures at the surface, but I lean cooler at this time.
The Dailies
Monday: Increasing clouds over the course of the day with a chance of showers late in the day and during the evening. Highs in the upper 60s to low 70s. Chance of rain (late) 30%.
Tuesday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. Some may be heavy at time. Highs in the low to mid 70s. Chance of rain 60%.
Wednesday: Partly cloudy. Highs in the low to mid 70s.
Thursday: Increasing clouds with a chance of showers. Highs in the mid to upper 70s. Chance of rain 30%.
Friday: Partly cloudy and cooler. Highs in the upper 60s to low 70s.
Saturday: Partly cloudy with a slight chance of showers. Highs in the mid to upper 60s. Chance of rain 20%
Sunday: Partly cloudy with a slight chance of showers. Highs in the upper 60s to low 70s. Chance of rain 20%.
As always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.
Thank you for reading SCW.
-DB
Monday: Increasing clouds over the course of the day with a chance of showers late in the day and during the evening. Highs in the upper 60s to low 70s. Chance of rain (late) 30%.
Tuesday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. Some may be heavy at time. Highs in the low to mid 70s. Chance of rain 60%.
Wednesday: Partly cloudy. Highs in the low to mid 70s.
Thursday: Increasing clouds with a chance of showers. Highs in the mid to upper 70s. Chance of rain 30%.
Friday: Partly cloudy and cooler. Highs in the upper 60s to low 70s.
Saturday: Partly cloudy with a slight chance of showers. Highs in the mid to upper 60s. Chance of rain 20%
Sunday: Partly cloudy with a slight chance of showers. Highs in the upper 60s to low 70s. Chance of rain 20%.
As always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.
Thank you for reading SCW.
-DB
