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Forecaster's Discussion and Extended Forecast 12/14/2014

12/14/2014

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Good afternoon from Southern Connecticut Weather!

Currently we have sunny and cool across the state with temperatures ranging from the upper 30s inland, to the low to mid 40s at the shore. As we head through this evening, mostly clear , dry conditions should persist with temperatures dropping back through the 30s at the shore and into the 20s inland. Dry conditions remain the rule as we head through your back to work day on Monday, but changes are on the horizon as a low pressure system moves through the Great Lakes region  from late Monday through early Wednesday. 
At this juncture, it does not look to be a major event, just some nuisance showers and raw conditions. The consensus among all models is for a low-pressure system to track through the Great Lakes, with light to moderate precipitation, mostly falling during the day on Tuesday. The Canadian GGEM and NCEP GFS show the most QPF of all models for Connecticut, mostly centered in southwest CT, but all of the state does look to get the most rain.
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For the rest of next week, from Wednesday afternoon on through next weekend, temperatures become colder with dry conditions prevailing. The area does look to stay clear of any major storms through the start of next weekend, but there is a signal for two separate storms as we approach Christmas, one towards the end of next weekend and one towards the middle of next week. Far too early to make any definitive forecasts in terms of track, timing, impacts, or precipitation types, but this is a definitely a period to watch as holiday travel could be impacted.
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It is Sunday, we haven't done it in a while, but here's your 7-day forecast:

Tonight:  Mostly clear, temps 20-25 inland, 25-30 shore, chance of precip 0%

Monday: Partly cloudy, temps low to mid 40s, chance of precip 10%

Monday night: Partly cloudy early then increasing clouds late with possible showers developing, temps 35-40, chance of precip 20%

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy with showers throughout the state, temps 40-45, chance of precip 50%

Tuesday night: Mostly cloudy with showers, temps 35-40, chance of precip 40%

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy early with showers, clearing late in the afternoon, temps 40-45 inland, 45-50 at the shore, chance of precip 30%

Wednesday night: Mostly cloudy early becoming mostly clear late and becoming colder, temps dropping through the 30s and into the 20s inland, chance if precip 10%

Thursday: Mostly sunny, colder, temps in the mid 30s inland, upper 30s shore, chance of precip 10%

Thursday night: Mostly clear, temps mid to upper 20s inland, low 30s shore, chance of precip 0%

Friday: Partly cloudy, possibly a stray flurry, temps 35-40, chance of precip 10%

Friday night: Partly cloudy, temps 25-30, chance of precip 10%

Saturday: Partly cloudy, temps 35-40, chance of precip 10%

Saturday night: *watching for a potential storm*  A chance of rain and snow, temps 25-30, chance of precip 30%

Sunday:*watching for a potential storm*  A chance of rain and snow, temps mid to upper 30s inland, low to mid 40s at the shore, chance of precip 40%

Sunday night: *watching for a potential storm* A chance of rain and snow, temps 30-35, chance of precip 30%
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Have a good rest of your Sunday and weekend everyone! Look for another update tomorrow night. Stay tuned!- Tim

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