Good evening from Southern Connecticut Weather!
After a seasonably chilly, but beautiful day, tomorrow is poised to be an even nicer day as we move toward the end of meteorological winter and the beginning of March.
Although we are experiencing an early taste of spring, winter is not over! Additional chances for wintry precipitation are likely to remain through the middle of the month. In this discussion, I look at the week ahead, the month that’s been, and will try to give you a sense of the large scale pattern through the middle of March.
Sunday
Pick of the week? Morning clouds should gradually give way to partly sunny skies as a backdoor cold front lifts north. Should it clear the state, with a southwest flow temperatures will climb into the 50s. Guidance isn’t as bullish on temperatures, but I think it will be a nice day overall. It will be breezy, especially near the shore.
Monday
Unlike the day before, Monday brings the chance of showers as a storm system passes well to our north and a cold front clears the state. It looks to be another day in the 50s. Any rain that falls during the morning and afternoon it should clear the state by the evening hours. Breezy conditions continue.
Tuesday
Most of Tuesday looks decent, with increasing clouds over the course of the day as our next storm system approaches from the west. A cold front will setup somewhere in New England, and there will be a pretty sharp temperature gradient. We will need to watch where the front ends up, but my money is on the front being north of the state, resulting in mild temperatures for the third straight day.
After a seasonably chilly, but beautiful day, tomorrow is poised to be an even nicer day as we move toward the end of meteorological winter and the beginning of March.
Although we are experiencing an early taste of spring, winter is not over! Additional chances for wintry precipitation are likely to remain through the middle of the month. In this discussion, I look at the week ahead, the month that’s been, and will try to give you a sense of the large scale pattern through the middle of March.
Sunday
Pick of the week? Morning clouds should gradually give way to partly sunny skies as a backdoor cold front lifts north. Should it clear the state, with a southwest flow temperatures will climb into the 50s. Guidance isn’t as bullish on temperatures, but I think it will be a nice day overall. It will be breezy, especially near the shore.
Monday
Unlike the day before, Monday brings the chance of showers as a storm system passes well to our north and a cold front clears the state. It looks to be another day in the 50s. Any rain that falls during the morning and afternoon it should clear the state by the evening hours. Breezy conditions continue.
Tuesday
Most of Tuesday looks decent, with increasing clouds over the course of the day as our next storm system approaches from the west. A cold front will setup somewhere in New England, and there will be a pretty sharp temperature gradient. We will need to watch where the front ends up, but my money is on the front being north of the state, resulting in mild temperatures for the third straight day.
GFS projection of temperatures around 1pm on Tuesday, can you spot the front? Image courtesy of WeatherBell Analytics.
Wednesday
Wednesday gets active again. A storm system will approach from the southwest. Guidance has been consistent on showing an inland track that is less than ideal for wintry precipitation. It is something worth casually watching, though. Odds are that this is an all rain event, and I don’t see much reason that will change over the next few days. It is interesting to note however, that the GFS earlier today did bring period of icing to northwest Connecticut on Wednesday morning. Again, worth watching, but I tend to think that the euro has the evolution more or less correct and that a storm to our west will not be able to produce a significant winter weather event.
Wednesday
Wednesday gets active again. A storm system will approach from the southwest. Guidance has been consistent on showing an inland track that is less than ideal for wintry precipitation. It is something worth casually watching, though. Odds are that this is an all rain event, and I don’t see much reason that will change over the next few days. It is interesting to note however, that the GFS earlier today did bring period of icing to northwest Connecticut on Wednesday morning. Again, worth watching, but I tend to think that the euro has the evolution more or less correct and that a storm to our west will not be able to produce a significant winter weather event.
The GFS showing a period of wintry precipitation in the Litchfield hills on Wednesday morning. The european model, by comparison, is less bullish.
Thursday/Friday
Thursday is our period of interest. With the prior system exiting, colder air comes in on the backside. This is key, as there are indications that a coastal storm may try to develop and approach from the south. Unlike the Wednesday event, this is a much more favorable track for a winter weather event, but currently it looks like a scrape to or miss. Given how far away we are, this bears watching. The euro is a bit slower with the progression of the coastal storm, but has a relatively similar idea as the GFS. The ensembles, which should be taken more seriously than the operational runs right now, are split on the evolution during this period.
Saturday
Depending on the timing of the prior system, we are cleared out and back to seasonably cold conditions by Saturday.
Thursday/Friday
Thursday is our period of interest. With the prior system exiting, colder air comes in on the backside. This is key, as there are indications that a coastal storm may try to develop and approach from the south. Unlike the Wednesday event, this is a much more favorable track for a winter weather event, but currently it looks like a scrape to or miss. Given how far away we are, this bears watching. The euro is a bit slower with the progression of the coastal storm, but has a relatively similar idea as the GFS. The ensembles, which should be taken more seriously than the operational runs right now, are split on the evolution during this period.
Saturday
Depending on the timing of the prior system, we are cleared out and back to seasonably cold conditions by Saturday.
Above is the GEFS individual member plot for snowfall. Remember that the ensembles essentially tweak initial conditions in each individual simulation to account for inherent errors. The mean, which is the average of these solutions, is the most important result and is the last image. It suggests that a few inches of accumulated snow falls between now and Saturday afternoon. It is not a robust signal for snow, but a signal nonetheless.
The dailies:
Sunday: Mostly cloudy early with clearing during the day. Highs in the lower to mid 50s.
Monday: Rain showers during the morning and early afternoon, with clearing by evening. Highs in the low to mid 50s. Chance of precipitation 50%.
Tuesday: Partly cloudy with increasing clouds and showers by evening. Highs in the low to mid 50s. Chance of precipitation 50%.
Wednesday: Rain most of the day. Highs in the upper 40s to low 50s. Chance of precipitation 60%.
Thursday: SCW period of interest. Much colder. Highs near 40. Chance of wintry precipitation 20%.
Friday: Sunny and cold. Highs in the low to mid 30s.
Saturday: Sunny and seasonably cool. Highs in the upper 30s to low 40s.
Long Range Outlook
I have to admit, I am looking toward spring at this point. February has been an interesting month, and this has been a season of oddities in this Super Nino. Between a meager subtropical jet, conditions that have allowed southwest CT to receive far more snow than climatologically favored areas in the state, and persistently warm temperatures, the winter of 2015-16 has been a challenging one for forecasters and snow lovers alike.
Sunday: Mostly cloudy early with clearing during the day. Highs in the lower to mid 50s.
Monday: Rain showers during the morning and early afternoon, with clearing by evening. Highs in the low to mid 50s. Chance of precipitation 50%.
Tuesday: Partly cloudy with increasing clouds and showers by evening. Highs in the low to mid 50s. Chance of precipitation 50%.
Wednesday: Rain most of the day. Highs in the upper 40s to low 50s. Chance of precipitation 60%.
Thursday: SCW period of interest. Much colder. Highs near 40. Chance of wintry precipitation 20%.
Friday: Sunny and cold. Highs in the low to mid 30s.
Saturday: Sunny and seasonably cool. Highs in the upper 30s to low 40s.
Long Range Outlook
I have to admit, I am looking toward spring at this point. February has been an interesting month, and this has been a season of oddities in this Super Nino. Between a meager subtropical jet, conditions that have allowed southwest CT to receive far more snow than climatologically favored areas in the state, and persistently warm temperatures, the winter of 2015-16 has been a challenging one for forecasters and snow lovers alike.
Although the state received more snow than average in the month of February, many parts of the state are below normal, and February is likely to end above normal in temperatures, again.
It is at this point in the year where two fundamental truths must be stated:
The annual march toward spring has begun.
March is a transition month.
March is a month in which Connecticut can definitively break toward spring, or it can be a month where winter fiercely holds on. Most of the time however, we rapidly move toward a warmer regime where it becomes harder for sustained wintry weather and temperatures.
Hartford Area
March 1 Average High—42
March 1 Average Low—24
March 31 Average High—54
March 31 Average Low—33
Average snowfall—8.3”
Bridgeport Area
March 1 Average High—43
March 1 Average Low—28
March 31 Average High—52
March 31 Average Low—36
Average snowfall—5.2”
In the long term, I see more of a roller coaster ride, with no definitive indications of extended wintry or spring like conditions. I see a few chances for wintry precipitation, as well as periods were we are above normal temperature wise. You can see this evolution in the 500mb GEFS plot posted below. Overall, there is no reason to call for colder than normal temperatures on balance during the first half of March.
It is at this point in the year where two fundamental truths must be stated:
The annual march toward spring has begun.
March is a transition month.
March is a month in which Connecticut can definitively break toward spring, or it can be a month where winter fiercely holds on. Most of the time however, we rapidly move toward a warmer regime where it becomes harder for sustained wintry weather and temperatures.
Hartford Area
March 1 Average High—42
March 1 Average Low—24
March 31 Average High—54
March 31 Average Low—33
Average snowfall—8.3”
Bridgeport Area
March 1 Average High—43
March 1 Average Low—28
March 31 Average High—52
March 31 Average Low—36
Average snowfall—5.2”
In the long term, I see more of a roller coaster ride, with no definitive indications of extended wintry or spring like conditions. I see a few chances for wintry precipitation, as well as periods were we are above normal temperature wise. You can see this evolution in the 500mb GEFS plot posted below. Overall, there is no reason to call for colder than normal temperatures on balance during the first half of March.
GEFS temperatures in the Hartford area. Aside from a short period below normal, the pattern suggests temperatures near to above normal through the middle of March. The same applies for Bridgeport, which is plotted below.
In the GEFS animation below, you see a seesaw like pattern, with no definitive large scale signal for deep winter or a fast break toward spring.
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-DB
-DB
