Good evening to you from SCW!
After a strong cold front crossed the state on Saturday morning, it certainly has felt more like winter the past two days with well below normal temperatures. The only thing missing to make it truly feel like winter is snow on the ground, and if you’re looking to complete the winter package, you’ll like this forecast. If you wish temps were back into the 50s again, don’t worry, you’ll like this forecast as well, you’ll just have to wait a little bit longer than the snow lovers!
Monday
Chilly and mostly calm weather for tomorrow, but keeping an eye out for some scattered flurries or snow showers from ocean effect snow to our east in Massachusetts. Most likely we won’t see anything more than a flurry or two in our eastern areas, but if winds were to align just right we could see some snow showers make their way into the state, again best chance for a coating would be in the eastern portion of the state. Otherwise, partly to mostly cloudy skies and highs in the low to mid 20s.
Here’s a look at the 3km NAM for tomorrow afternoon showing both the bands of ocean effect snow to our east and our system approaching from our west that will impact us from Tuesday into Wednesday.
After a strong cold front crossed the state on Saturday morning, it certainly has felt more like winter the past two days with well below normal temperatures. The only thing missing to make it truly feel like winter is snow on the ground, and if you’re looking to complete the winter package, you’ll like this forecast. If you wish temps were back into the 50s again, don’t worry, you’ll like this forecast as well, you’ll just have to wait a little bit longer than the snow lovers!
Monday
Chilly and mostly calm weather for tomorrow, but keeping an eye out for some scattered flurries or snow showers from ocean effect snow to our east in Massachusetts. Most likely we won’t see anything more than a flurry or two in our eastern areas, but if winds were to align just right we could see some snow showers make their way into the state, again best chance for a coating would be in the eastern portion of the state. Otherwise, partly to mostly cloudy skies and highs in the low to mid 20s.
Here’s a look at the 3km NAM for tomorrow afternoon showing both the bands of ocean effect snow to our east and our system approaching from our west that will impact us from Tuesday into Wednesday.
Tuesday-Wednesday
Here is the forecast snowmap for this period.
Here is the forecast snowmap for this period.
An Alberta Clipper system will provide the main chance of wintry weather in this forecast period. Low pressure tracks south of the area tomorrow evening, bringing a period of light snow to the entire state. The models have gradually been trending towards a more amplified scenario which allows for a bit stronger of a system and therefore some more snow. The NECP guidance (NAM and GFS) is a bit weaker than the foreign guidance, but all are in pretty good agreement on an advisory level snowfall for most of the state. Here’s a look at the system Tuesday evening on the GFS(weaker solution) and GGEM(stronger solution).
Modeled QPF ranges from a quarter to a half an inch across most of the state, with each model being slightly different in where it focuses the heavier precipitation. Most of the models agree that there will be a stronger band or two embedded somewhere in the system and it will be there that gets the highest totals, but consensus on where that band will develop is low so leaving that possibility out of the forecast for now. As far as temps go, a solution similar to the GFS should be cold enough for all snow in most areas of the state with mixing confined to far SE areas if at all, while a more amplified solution would bring mixing issues to most of the southeast portion of the state, but additional QPF in that scenario would probably allow for similar snow totals.
Given the forecast QPF, the temperature possibilities, and the tenet that a coastal low is more likely to favor eastern areas all else equal, will go with a 2-4” forecast across most of the state, but increase to 3-6” in the northeastern portion of the state to account for the increased likelihood of additional QPF combined with the high probability of remaining all snow there. It is worth pointing out that should we continue to see a trend stronger with the coastal development and/or the GFS/NAM cave to the foreign guidance, we will have to upgrade snow totals a bit, but we’ll wait until tomorrow to make that call as this event is still ~48 hours out.
As far as timing goes, expect snow to start later Tuesday afternoon and last through the overnight hours into early Wednesday morning. Could see some impacts to the commute Tuesday evening and Wednesday morning, and some school delays look likely on Wednesday (and with the way districts have been pulling the trigger to cancel school so far this year we could even see some cancellations depending on the exact timing of the system). Snowfall rates should remain relatively light except in any heavier banding that develops, and wind doesn’t look to be a major issue.
Here's the impact scale for the event.
Given the forecast QPF, the temperature possibilities, and the tenet that a coastal low is more likely to favor eastern areas all else equal, will go with a 2-4” forecast across most of the state, but increase to 3-6” in the northeastern portion of the state to account for the increased likelihood of additional QPF combined with the high probability of remaining all snow there. It is worth pointing out that should we continue to see a trend stronger with the coastal development and/or the GFS/NAM cave to the foreign guidance, we will have to upgrade snow totals a bit, but we’ll wait until tomorrow to make that call as this event is still ~48 hours out.
As far as timing goes, expect snow to start later Tuesday afternoon and last through the overnight hours into early Wednesday morning. Could see some impacts to the commute Tuesday evening and Wednesday morning, and some school delays look likely on Wednesday (and with the way districts have been pulling the trigger to cancel school so far this year we could even see some cancellations depending on the exact timing of the system). Snowfall rates should remain relatively light except in any heavier banding that develops, and wind doesn’t look to be a major issue.
Here's the impact scale for the event.
All in all, a relatively classic clipper system that will whiten up the landscape and make it really feel like winter. We’ll have a final call out on this system tomorrow evening and additional updates as necessary.
Thursday-Sunday
Warming trend looks to take hold behind the storm for the end of the week into next weekend as high pressure moves in from the south and brings warmer air with it. There is a low probability storm chance for Thursday if a coastal low currently modeled to pass offshore can move further west into the area as shown by some members of the ensemble guidance, but otherwise expecting cloudy skies for Thursday giving way to mostly sunny skies by the weekend. Temps should continuously warm each day, with highs near 30 on Thursday, in the mid 30s on Friday, in the low to mid 40s on Saturday and in the upper 40s to lower 50s on Sunday(I told you it would be worth the wait)!
The Dailies
Monday: A slight chance of snow showers, otherwise, mostly cloudy, with highs in the low to mid 20s. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Tuesday: Mostly cloudy with snow developing late. Highs in the upper 20s to lower 30s. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Light to moderate snow accumulation expected.
Wednesday: Snow ending in the morning, than mostly cloudy, with highs in the mid to upper 20s. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Light snow accumulation expected.
Thursday: Mostly sunny, with highs in the low 30s.
Friday: Mostly sunny, with highs in the mid 30s.
Saturday: Mostly sunny, with highs in the low to mid 40s.
Sunday: Mostly sunny, with highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s.
Have a great week and thank you for reading SCW!
-SA
Thursday-Sunday
Warming trend looks to take hold behind the storm for the end of the week into next weekend as high pressure moves in from the south and brings warmer air with it. There is a low probability storm chance for Thursday if a coastal low currently modeled to pass offshore can move further west into the area as shown by some members of the ensemble guidance, but otherwise expecting cloudy skies for Thursday giving way to mostly sunny skies by the weekend. Temps should continuously warm each day, with highs near 30 on Thursday, in the mid 30s on Friday, in the low to mid 40s on Saturday and in the upper 40s to lower 50s on Sunday(I told you it would be worth the wait)!
The Dailies
Monday: A slight chance of snow showers, otherwise, mostly cloudy, with highs in the low to mid 20s. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Tuesday: Mostly cloudy with snow developing late. Highs in the upper 20s to lower 30s. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Light to moderate snow accumulation expected.
Wednesday: Snow ending in the morning, than mostly cloudy, with highs in the mid to upper 20s. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Light snow accumulation expected.
Thursday: Mostly sunny, with highs in the low 30s.
Friday: Mostly sunny, with highs in the mid 30s.
Saturday: Mostly sunny, with highs in the low to mid 40s.
Sunday: Mostly sunny, with highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s.
Have a great week and thank you for reading SCW!
-SA
