Good evening to you from Southern Connecticut Weather!
After the past few days have produced record highs across the state, the mercury is about to take a plunge heading into next week. However, before we get there, we’ve got a storm system to deal with for tomorrow into Saturday that will bring a chance of rain and strong winds to the state.
Friday-Saturday
A large area of low pressure is moving north to our west, however, instead of cutting into the Great Lakes and placing us in the warm sector, it will transfer to a secondary low off the coastline, which will generate a deformation band to it’s west as it passes just to our east. Both the primary and the secondary will bring rain, however, between the two lows, there will be a dryslot area that will see little to no rain. Here’s a panel of the GFS that shows the two jackpot area well; all guidance is in general agreement on the layout. You can see the primary low hanging on on the western flank, while the new secondary is forming on the eastern edge.
After the past few days have produced record highs across the state, the mercury is about to take a plunge heading into next week. However, before we get there, we’ve got a storm system to deal with for tomorrow into Saturday that will bring a chance of rain and strong winds to the state.
Friday-Saturday
A large area of low pressure is moving north to our west, however, instead of cutting into the Great Lakes and placing us in the warm sector, it will transfer to a secondary low off the coastline, which will generate a deformation band to it’s west as it passes just to our east. Both the primary and the secondary will bring rain, however, between the two lows, there will be a dryslot area that will see little to no rain. Here’s a panel of the GFS that shows the two jackpot area well; all guidance is in general agreement on the layout. You can see the primary low hanging on on the western flank, while the new secondary is forming on the eastern edge.
Eventually the primary dies and the secondary becomes the dominant low, winding up essentially due north of us. However, by that time, the deformation rains associated with the low may be too far north to bring heavy rain to the area. This GFS panel shows that, with the heaviest rains winding up in northern New York and Vermont. We still see some rain, but it is lighter and more scattered.
What determines how much rain we end up seeing will be the track of the initial primary low and resulting placement of the dryslot. Guidance is split between the transfer taking place to our west and the dryslot ending up over New Jersey and PA vs. the transfer taking place right over us and putting the state in the dryslot. As the trend has been for a slight shift to the east over the past several runs, I am inclined to lean a bit drier than the model consensus. I still expect to see a moderate to heavy rainfall across the state, with totals between half an inch and an inch statewide. We could see some higher amounts in the eastern portion of the state depending on where the band of rain sets up, but I’m not confident enough in that to call for higher totals.
As the storm exits to our north, it will tug down cold air from Canada, leading to a chilly Saturday. It will also be windy as the midlevel low moves over us, with gusts of up to 40mph possible. Further to the north, upslope snow showers will develop over the Berkshires, Greens and Adirondacks(bringing the first significant snowfall of the year there); while I don’t expect any snow of significance in Connecticut, the Litchfield hills could see some non-accumulating first flakes Saturday evening and Sunday depending on temperatures.
Sunday-Thursday
Behind the storm, much colder air moves into the area, with highs only making it to the mid 50s on Sunday and then steadily trending colder over the course of the week. The cold peaks on Thursday morning, when guidance currently sends the whole state below freezing except for the immediate coastline; that will likely end the growing season across the state for anywhere that has not frozen already. Generally calm weather throughout the forecast period; some sort of system looks to approach towards the end of next week, but right now it’s too far out to get into it with any sort of detail.
As the storm exits to our north, it will tug down cold air from Canada, leading to a chilly Saturday. It will also be windy as the midlevel low moves over us, with gusts of up to 40mph possible. Further to the north, upslope snow showers will develop over the Berkshires, Greens and Adirondacks(bringing the first significant snowfall of the year there); while I don’t expect any snow of significance in Connecticut, the Litchfield hills could see some non-accumulating first flakes Saturday evening and Sunday depending on temperatures.
Sunday-Thursday
Behind the storm, much colder air moves into the area, with highs only making it to the mid 50s on Sunday and then steadily trending colder over the course of the week. The cold peaks on Thursday morning, when guidance currently sends the whole state below freezing except for the immediate coastline; that will likely end the growing season across the state for anywhere that has not frozen already. Generally calm weather throughout the forecast period; some sort of system looks to approach towards the end of next week, but right now it’s too far out to get into it with any sort of detail.
The Dailies
Friday: Showers likely, otherwise, cloudy, with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
Saturday: Showers likely in the morning, then a chance of showers, otherwise, mostly cloudy and windy, with highs in the mid to upper 50s. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Sunday: Partly sunny and windy, with highs in the mid 50s.
Monday: Mostly sunny, with highs in the low to mid 50s.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with highs in the upper 40s to low 50s.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny, with highs in the upper 40s to low 50s.
Thursday: A chance of rain, otherwise, partly sunny, with highs in the upper 40s to low 50s. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Have a great weekend and thank you for reading SCW!
-SA
Friday: Showers likely, otherwise, cloudy, with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
Saturday: Showers likely in the morning, then a chance of showers, otherwise, mostly cloudy and windy, with highs in the mid to upper 50s. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Sunday: Partly sunny and windy, with highs in the mid 50s.
Monday: Mostly sunny, with highs in the low to mid 50s.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with highs in the upper 40s to low 50s.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny, with highs in the upper 40s to low 50s.
Thursday: A chance of rain, otherwise, partly sunny, with highs in the upper 40s to low 50s. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Have a great weekend and thank you for reading SCW!
-SA
