Good morning to you from Southern Connecticut Weather!
It was a chilly night for many, with most locations getting down into the 20s and some of our colder spots reaching the teens after clear skies and little wind made for ideal radiational cooling conditions. Wednesday is shaping up to be a decent day, with sunny skies in the morning eventually giving way to more cloudy conditions later in the day as the next system approaches. Temperatures should rebound into the upper 40s in the hill towns of Connecticut, with lower 50s elsewhere.
We are keeping an eye on a change however, as a storm passes far to our northwest and the attendant cold front passes through the area on Thursday. Computer guidance has been in good agreement about the rain tomorrow, and it brings the precipitation into the area tomorrow morning and afternoon as we see an increase in southerly flow ahead of the front. Along that front, a weak area of low pressure is expected to form and pass over southern New England Thursday night and early Friday.
It was a chilly night for many, with most locations getting down into the 20s and some of our colder spots reaching the teens after clear skies and little wind made for ideal radiational cooling conditions. Wednesday is shaping up to be a decent day, with sunny skies in the morning eventually giving way to more cloudy conditions later in the day as the next system approaches. Temperatures should rebound into the upper 40s in the hill towns of Connecticut, with lower 50s elsewhere.
We are keeping an eye on a change however, as a storm passes far to our northwest and the attendant cold front passes through the area on Thursday. Computer guidance has been in good agreement about the rain tomorrow, and it brings the precipitation into the area tomorrow morning and afternoon as we see an increase in southerly flow ahead of the front. Along that front, a weak area of low pressure is expected to form and pass over southern New England Thursday night and early Friday.
Above are images of the 00z GFS and 00z NAM models. These are snapshots of what things could look like around 1pm on Thursday. The radar coverage at that time may not be exactly the same, but the important takeaway to me is that the area is squarely in the middle or close to heavier rain moving into the area.
This looks like a decent rain event, with most of the state totaling between .75 and 1.5 inches of rain.
This looks like a decent rain event, with most of the state totaling between .75 and 1.5 inches of rain.
Virtually all of Thursday through Thursday night looks rainy, with moderate to heavy rain at times. Showers could linger into Friday as well, but are likely to be done by early afternoon depending on the progression of the system. High pressure should build in on Friday, meaning that conditions improve quickly. Saturday is setting up to be a nice day, with high pressure still in control. You will begin to notice more of a chill by Sunday however, as colder air (relative to normal) finally makes its way into the area.
Sunday is also the time period we are watching as another system begins to make its approach. This one is also likely to pass to our north, but with colder air in place, we could see some rain showers or snow showers during the day as another cold front passes through. Forecast confidence is much lower during this period on precipitation chances.
For the majority of November, warmer than normal days were the rule rather than the exception. As we head through the next seven days, with the exception of Thursday and very early Friday, we look to be at or below the average high temperature for this time of year. As we head into the early part of next week, it will feel like the holiday season is approaching, with highs sharply lower on Sunday, and highs likely to remain in the lower to mid 40s for the forecast period.
The week ahead:
Wednesday: Sunny start turning partly cloudy, with clouds increasing throughout the day. Highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Lows Wednesday evening in the upper 30s to lower 40s.
Thursday: Cloudy to start, with showers possible in the morning and rain arriving from west to east in the early afternoon. Rain could be moderate to heavy at times during the afternoon and evening, and there could also be a rumble of thunder. Highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Lows in the mid to upper 40s. Chance of rain is 90%
Friday: Rain ends early and things clear out by late morning as high pressure builds in. Highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s, but daytime highs in the upper 40s. Lows in the mid 30s. Chance of rain is 70% early on.
Saturday: Mostly sunny. Highs around 50. Lows in the lower to mid 30s.
Sunday: Chance of rain and snow showers in the morning or early afternoon, otherwise, partly cloudy. Highs in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Lows in the upper 20s to low 30s. Chance of precipitation is 20%
Monday: Mostly sunny. Seasonably cold. Highs in the lower to mid 40s. Lows in the upper 20s to low 30s.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny. Seasonably cool. Highs in the mid to upper 40s. Lows in the lower 30s.
Finally, if you haven’t guessed yet—I’m new around here! My name is Don Bell, and I've been following and forecasting Connecticut weather for most of my life, being born and raised in East Hartford. My bio on the webpage tells you a bit more about me, but I wanted to take a moment to say that I am honored to be a new member of the SCW team, and I'm looking forward to sharing my passion for all things weather here, with you.
My goal is to provide you with informative and quality discussions, as well as interact with you as much as I can. I love to hear feedback and answer questions. If you have anything to say, please do not hesitate to write in the comments space or send me direct messages!
The first of many (I hope :) )
-DB
For the majority of November, warmer than normal days were the rule rather than the exception. As we head through the next seven days, with the exception of Thursday and very early Friday, we look to be at or below the average high temperature for this time of year. As we head into the early part of next week, it will feel like the holiday season is approaching, with highs sharply lower on Sunday, and highs likely to remain in the lower to mid 40s for the forecast period.
The week ahead:
Wednesday: Sunny start turning partly cloudy, with clouds increasing throughout the day. Highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Lows Wednesday evening in the upper 30s to lower 40s.
Thursday: Cloudy to start, with showers possible in the morning and rain arriving from west to east in the early afternoon. Rain could be moderate to heavy at times during the afternoon and evening, and there could also be a rumble of thunder. Highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Lows in the mid to upper 40s. Chance of rain is 90%
Friday: Rain ends early and things clear out by late morning as high pressure builds in. Highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s, but daytime highs in the upper 40s. Lows in the mid 30s. Chance of rain is 70% early on.
Saturday: Mostly sunny. Highs around 50. Lows in the lower to mid 30s.
Sunday: Chance of rain and snow showers in the morning or early afternoon, otherwise, partly cloudy. Highs in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Lows in the upper 20s to low 30s. Chance of precipitation is 20%
Monday: Mostly sunny. Seasonably cold. Highs in the lower to mid 40s. Lows in the upper 20s to low 30s.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny. Seasonably cool. Highs in the mid to upper 40s. Lows in the lower 30s.
Finally, if you haven’t guessed yet—I’m new around here! My name is Don Bell, and I've been following and forecasting Connecticut weather for most of my life, being born and raised in East Hartford. My bio on the webpage tells you a bit more about me, but I wanted to take a moment to say that I am honored to be a new member of the SCW team, and I'm looking forward to sharing my passion for all things weather here, with you.
My goal is to provide you with informative and quality discussions, as well as interact with you as much as I can. I love to hear feedback and answer questions. If you have anything to say, please do not hesitate to write in the comments space or send me direct messages!
The first of many (I hope :) )
-DB
