Thanksgiving week forecast and travel outlook…
Good afternoon to you from Southern Connecticut Weather!
Today is one of those days where location matters. In most of the state, cloudy but dry conditions prevail. In southeastern Connecticut however, many have seen wet conditions, and this is likely to continue off and on during the day and into the evening as a low continues to track along the cold front that recently passed through the state. Temperatures are in the upper 40s to low 50s, as the colder air that was once thought to arrive early on Sunday lags a bit behind schedule.
Good afternoon to you from Southern Connecticut Weather!
Today is one of those days where location matters. In most of the state, cloudy but dry conditions prevail. In southeastern Connecticut however, many have seen wet conditions, and this is likely to continue off and on during the day and into the evening as a low continues to track along the cold front that recently passed through the state. Temperatures are in the upper 40s to low 50s, as the colder air that was once thought to arrive early on Sunday lags a bit behind schedule.
The above is a snapshot of personal weather stations throughout the region around 2pm today. Here's a look at the radar loop from this afternoon, showing the precipitation we are seeing this afternoon/evening across SECT.
The forecast for this evening is a bit tricky for two reasons—uncertainty regarding the extent of the rain across the state, and whether cold air arrives quickly enough for snow showers later this evening. Some of the higher resolution and rapid refresh models bring a bit more precipitation into a greater part of the state than some of the global models (think GFS and Euro). In addition, there are questions over whether the cold air arrives as precipitation is still falling, or just after precipitation ends. I think the GFS best illustrates the extent of the rain shower activity later this evening. Folks from the northeast corner to Tolland to around New Haven will probably see some shower activity, with folks further south and east (think New London, Groton, and anyone near the RI state line) having the best shot at more meaningful rain. Precipitation should end from west to east during the late night to early morning hours.
To answer the second question, I won’t rule out someone in Connecticut seeing some snowflakes, but I think the cold air is delayed enough to prevent anything widespread or significant. The further southeast you are, the more likely that you do see flakes (though this is admittedly a low probability deal to begin with) simply because the precipitation looks to hang on longer. No accumulation is expected. Sorry snow lovers.
Now, onto Thanksgiving week! In a word, beautiful. Computer guidance is in excellent agreement that an area of high pressure builds over southern New England for Monday and Tuesday, bringing seasonably cold, but sunny weather. As I said in my prior discussion, it will feel like the holiday season has arrived, with daytime temperatures on Monday and Tuesday in the upper 30s to low 40s and nighttime lows in the 20s for most. We get warmer Wednesday through Friday, as high pressure moves offshore and we see warmer flow. Temperatures are likely to be above normal and in the 50s Thursday and Friday. Friday should be the warmest day of the week, with temperatures close to 60! If you are one of the millions that will be traveling along the east coast during this time, you’re in luck. Dry conditions look to be in charge throughout the I-95 corridor through most of Friday. By the weekend, a cold front and upper level trough looks to approach, but timing and how potent the front will be remains unclear. The last few model runs have been less impressive with frontal passage. After the front passes, cooler air looks to enter the picture for at least a day or two as we close out meteorological fall and begin December and meteorological winter!
Now, onto Thanksgiving week! In a word, beautiful. Computer guidance is in excellent agreement that an area of high pressure builds over southern New England for Monday and Tuesday, bringing seasonably cold, but sunny weather. As I said in my prior discussion, it will feel like the holiday season has arrived, with daytime temperatures on Monday and Tuesday in the upper 30s to low 40s and nighttime lows in the 20s for most. We get warmer Wednesday through Friday, as high pressure moves offshore and we see warmer flow. Temperatures are likely to be above normal and in the 50s Thursday and Friday. Friday should be the warmest day of the week, with temperatures close to 60! If you are one of the millions that will be traveling along the east coast during this time, you’re in luck. Dry conditions look to be in charge throughout the I-95 corridor through most of Friday. By the weekend, a cold front and upper level trough looks to approach, but timing and how potent the front will be remains unclear. The last few model runs have been less impressive with frontal passage. After the front passes, cooler air looks to enter the picture for at least a day or two as we close out meteorological fall and begin December and meteorological winter!
The week ahead: Monday: Any lingering precipitation ends before sunrise as the storm moves away and high pressure moves in. Mostly sunny. Seasonably cold. Highs in the upper 30s to low 40s. Lows in the mid 20s to low 30s.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny. Seasonably cold. Highs in the upper 30s to low 40s. Lows in the mid to upper 20s. Wednesday: Mostly sunny and slightly warmer. Highs in the mid to upper 40s. Lows in the upper 20s to low 30s.
Thanksgiving Day: Mostly sunny and seasonably warm. Highs in the mid to upper 50s. Lows in the mid to upper 30s.
Friday: Partly sunny to start with increasing clouds and showers possible by the evening. Seasonably warm. Highs in the upper 50s to around 60. Lows in the mid to upper 40s. Chance of precipitation 30%. Saturday: Rain showers possible depending on the progression of the cold front. Highs in the low to mid 50s. Lows in the lower to mid 30s. Chance of precipitation 40%.
Sunday: Partly sunny. Showers possible depending on the progression of the cold front. Highs in the low 50s. Lows in the mid 30s. Chance of precipitation 10%.
Forecast Confidence: High confidence Monday through early Friday. Low confidence Saturday and Sunday.
As always, don’t forget to like us on Facebook and share our discussions! Thanks for reading SCW. -DB
Tuesday: Mostly sunny. Seasonably cold. Highs in the upper 30s to low 40s. Lows in the mid to upper 20s. Wednesday: Mostly sunny and slightly warmer. Highs in the mid to upper 40s. Lows in the upper 20s to low 30s.
Thanksgiving Day: Mostly sunny and seasonably warm. Highs in the mid to upper 50s. Lows in the mid to upper 30s.
Friday: Partly sunny to start with increasing clouds and showers possible by the evening. Seasonably warm. Highs in the upper 50s to around 60. Lows in the mid to upper 40s. Chance of precipitation 30%. Saturday: Rain showers possible depending on the progression of the cold front. Highs in the low to mid 50s. Lows in the lower to mid 30s. Chance of precipitation 40%.
Sunday: Partly sunny. Showers possible depending on the progression of the cold front. Highs in the low 50s. Lows in the mid 30s. Chance of precipitation 10%.
Forecast Confidence: High confidence Monday through early Friday. Low confidence Saturday and Sunday.
As always, don’t forget to like us on Facebook and share our discussions! Thanks for reading SCW. -DB
