Forecasters Discussion for 11/25/2015

Good evening to you from Southern Connecticut Weather!

As you're finishing up your pre-Thanksgiving preparations and getting set for a fantastic holiday celebration, the atmosphere is finishing up it's stay on the negative side of the normal mercury. For the last few days, we've seen a trough over our area, resulting in below-normal temperatures and a taste of winter-like temperatures. That will come to an end tomorrow, however, as a weak system cuts to our west, warm-sectoring us on the southeast side of the storm and resulting in much warmer temperatures compared to the past two days. While this warmth will be short lived, it will make for a pleasant end to the week, perfect for some outdoor fun during your Thanksgiving celebration or for frenzied shopping trips on Friday. It should be noted that while it will be above normal, we're not getting anywhere near the extreme warmth we saw at the start of the month, where temperatures were 20 degrees or more above normal! In general, temps will be ~10 degrees above normal, with readings on Friday a few degrees warmer than Thursday.

A weak frontal passage sweeps across the state from NW to SE Saturday morning, bringing a return to near-normal temperatures for the weekend. While a few showers are possible with this frontal passage, guidance has been trending drier and weaker with the front, resulting in a weaker shot of cold air(Hence only a return to near normalcy instead of a flip to more solidly below normal as was modeled a few days ago), but also the elimination of substantial precipitation chances as the front carries very little moisture with it, and there will be less instability produced as a result of the lower gradient. 

Here's a look at the southeastward progression of the frontal boundary throughout the day on Saturday.

Near-normal temperatures prevail into early next week before our next storm threat approaches around the change of the month, which has been slightly delayed on guidance to a Tuesday into Wednesday threat over the last day or two from it's previous placement on Monday into Tuesday. Model consensus is pretty solid on a track into the Great Lakes, placing us in the warm sector and resulting in above normal temperatures and rain. Due to the moderating cold shot, I don't see a real risk of frozen precipitation to start, although I won't rule out some light back end snows if the system were to transfer to a coastal storm quicker. It is worth noting that todays guidance did trend in that direction towards a quicker and further SE transfer, and while it would take a substantial additional trend to make that a realistic scenario where we could see some snow, it's not entirely out of the question. As of now though, it looks like a rainy middle of the week, and given that there is very little support for a wintry backside(Limited to a few Euro ensemble members and a GEFS member or two), will leave any mention of snow out of the forecast for now. Cooler temps follow on the backside of that system into next weekend.

Here are the dailies:
Thanksgiving Day: Partly cloudy, with highs in the low to mid 50s. 
Friday: Mostly sunny, with highs in the mid to upper 50s.
Saturday: A chance of showers, otherwise, partly cloudy, with highs peaking early at about 50, and then temps falling throughout the day. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Sunday: Mostly sunny, with highs in the mid 40s.
Monday: Partly cloudy,  with a slight chance of some sprinkles in southern areas. Highs in the mid 40s. Chance of precipitation is 10%.
Tuesday: A chance of rain, especially in the afternoon and evening hours. Highs in the upper 40s. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Wednesday: A chance of rain. Highs in the low to mid 50s. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

From all of us here at Southern Connecticut Weather, best wishes for a wonderful Thanksgiving holiday and a happy start to the holiday season! 
-SA