Good evening to you from Southern Connecticut Weather!
After a relatively active period last week, it looks like this week will be much quieter overall storm wise, with both potential threats that are on the table being minor in nature, however, we look to see a temperature roller coaster as temps rocket between below and above normal levels several times over the duration of the forecast period. Let’s break it down day by day, pausing as needed to inject some commentary on the two possible chances for some wintry weather.
Tomorrow will be quite a bit warmer than the last few days have been, with highs reaching up into the mid to upper 50s for most of the state, perhaps a few degrees lower in the NW hills and right on the immediate shoreline. Accompanying that warmer weather will be mostly sunny skies, combining to produce a beautiful day to start off the week and cure some of those back to work blues.
Tuesday, however, will not be so beautiful, with temps falling back into the upper 30s to perhaps 40 right on the coastline, and clouds rolling in to set the stage for the first of two minor systems to impact the area during the forecast period. This is a simple overrunning event, that is, a weak wave of energy out ahead of a more consolidated system (which in this case misses us), bringing some light precipitation to the area. On the coastline, it looks warm enough to fall as rain, but in the interior, cold air damming and a general cooler profile looks to stick around long enough for some if not all of that precipitation to fall as snow. Even if the shoreline were to see snow, it looks like it would be too warm at the surface for anything to accumulate, so we’d just be looking at white rain. Inland though, accumulations will be limited by the QPF that is available, with no modeling suggesting anything more than a couple tenths of an inch of QPF, not all of which falls as snow in the wetter solutions. As a result, accumulations will be minor if at all, probably limited to an inch or two at the absolute ceiling with the more likely totals being somewhere closer to a coating. We’ll put out a map tomorrow evening if needed, but overall, not a big deal. Snow also looks to come after the bulk of the afternoon commute is over, so travel impacts won’t be a big deal, and it should be all cleaned up and ready to go for Wednesday morning. Roads might be slick though if you’re out and about Tuesday evening, so keep that in mind.
Here’s the plumes of the 21 members of the SREF ensemble for BDL and BDR, showing the spread among the ensemble members. At BDL, around a half to two thirds of the members have a coating to a few tenths of an inch of snow, with one outlier at close to an inch and a few members having zero, while at BDR, most of the members are in agreement on this being a rain event, with only four of those 21 members having over a tenth of an inch of snow.
After a relatively active period last week, it looks like this week will be much quieter overall storm wise, with both potential threats that are on the table being minor in nature, however, we look to see a temperature roller coaster as temps rocket between below and above normal levels several times over the duration of the forecast period. Let’s break it down day by day, pausing as needed to inject some commentary on the two possible chances for some wintry weather.
Tomorrow will be quite a bit warmer than the last few days have been, with highs reaching up into the mid to upper 50s for most of the state, perhaps a few degrees lower in the NW hills and right on the immediate shoreline. Accompanying that warmer weather will be mostly sunny skies, combining to produce a beautiful day to start off the week and cure some of those back to work blues.
Tuesday, however, will not be so beautiful, with temps falling back into the upper 30s to perhaps 40 right on the coastline, and clouds rolling in to set the stage for the first of two minor systems to impact the area during the forecast period. This is a simple overrunning event, that is, a weak wave of energy out ahead of a more consolidated system (which in this case misses us), bringing some light precipitation to the area. On the coastline, it looks warm enough to fall as rain, but in the interior, cold air damming and a general cooler profile looks to stick around long enough for some if not all of that precipitation to fall as snow. Even if the shoreline were to see snow, it looks like it would be too warm at the surface for anything to accumulate, so we’d just be looking at white rain. Inland though, accumulations will be limited by the QPF that is available, with no modeling suggesting anything more than a couple tenths of an inch of QPF, not all of which falls as snow in the wetter solutions. As a result, accumulations will be minor if at all, probably limited to an inch or two at the absolute ceiling with the more likely totals being somewhere closer to a coating. We’ll put out a map tomorrow evening if needed, but overall, not a big deal. Snow also looks to come after the bulk of the afternoon commute is over, so travel impacts won’t be a big deal, and it should be all cleaned up and ready to go for Wednesday morning. Roads might be slick though if you’re out and about Tuesday evening, so keep that in mind.
Here’s the plumes of the 21 members of the SREF ensemble for BDL and BDR, showing the spread among the ensemble members. At BDL, around a half to two thirds of the members have a coating to a few tenths of an inch of snow, with one outlier at close to an inch and a few members having zero, while at BDR, most of the members are in agreement on this being a rain event, with only four of those 21 members having over a tenth of an inch of snow.
Wednesday is up in the air as of right now as far as temps go: some guidance warms us into the 50s, while some keeps cold air dammed at the surface and as a result keeps us several degrees cooler. Have hedged towards the cooler side of the envelope given that modeling recently has been overestimating warmth and fresh snowpack on the ground may help keep temps down a bit from what model shows, and will forecast temps in the mid to upper 40s for Wednesday, although there is certainly bust potential into the 50s if the warmer solutions verified, especially if snow did not materialize itself on Tuesday evening. Here’s the same SREF plumes, but this time for temperature, showing the spread on Wednesday for BDL(Other stations are similar, I’ve circled the spread in blue to be noticeable). In terms of precipitation, rain showers should continue through most of the day before tapering off late.
Thursday and Friday, models are in agreement on colder weather, with highs in the low to mid 40s Thursday and similar to that on Friday, maybe a few degrees warmer on the coast and a few degrees cooler in the interior depending on the positioning of a thermal gradient which will be near the area. Sunny skies expected both days.
The forecast gets a bit more interesting towards the end of the period as a coastal system looks to come up the eastern seaboard Friday night into Saturday. There certainly is more QPF around with this system than the Tuesday one, but temps look to be warm enough to be mostly rain for the area. However, it’s possible that the usual cooler spots, specifically the NW and NE hills, could remain cold enough to begin as a short period of snow or wintry mix prior to transitioning to plain rain. Coastline looks to, barring a major shift in modeling, be all rain for this event as of now. Considering we are at the end of the forecast period, will simply go ahead and paint a chance of rain for the shoreline and a chance of rain and snow for the interior, with 50% pops(Probability of precipitation) the maximum for right now considering the lead time.
We’ll be totaling the results of the November forecast contest shortly, and will announce the winner on the page when it is determined! Look for that in the next few days.
Until next time, have a wonderful start to your week, and thanks for reading Southern Connecticut Weather!
-SA
The forecast gets a bit more interesting towards the end of the period as a coastal system looks to come up the eastern seaboard Friday night into Saturday. There certainly is more QPF around with this system than the Tuesday one, but temps look to be warm enough to be mostly rain for the area. However, it’s possible that the usual cooler spots, specifically the NW and NE hills, could remain cold enough to begin as a short period of snow or wintry mix prior to transitioning to plain rain. Coastline looks to, barring a major shift in modeling, be all rain for this event as of now. Considering we are at the end of the forecast period, will simply go ahead and paint a chance of rain for the shoreline and a chance of rain and snow for the interior, with 50% pops(Probability of precipitation) the maximum for right now considering the lead time.
We’ll be totaling the results of the November forecast contest shortly, and will announce the winner on the page when it is determined! Look for that in the next few days.
Until next time, have a wonderful start to your week, and thanks for reading Southern Connecticut Weather!
-SA
