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Forecasters Discussion for 11/4/2015

11/4/2015

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Good morning to you from Southern Connecticut Weather!

We're in the midst of a rather atypical start to November, with temperatures more resembling September 4th than November 4th. We're looking at highs reaching into the mid to upper 60s across the state, which is around ten degrees above normal for this time of year. Warm temps continue for the remainder of the week, along with some scattered showers Thursday night into Friday, before a cold front sweeps in Friday night and brings us back to near-normal levels for the weekend into early next week. 

As a strong ridge of high pressure continues to persist over us, dry and pleasant will be the rule for today and tomorrow, as warm air moves over the top of the ridge from the west and up into our area. Tomorrow brings a near repeat of today, with the strong ridge persisting in place and, aside from a few scattered clouds later in the day, sunny skies persisting as well. Temps will be a degree or two cooler, with highs in the mid 60s, but still well above normal for this time of year. 

The wheels of change begin to spin Thursday evening as the strong ridge above us begins to be pushed east by a strong cold front to our west, however, it will take until Friday evening for the cold front to pass the surface low that is generated by the ridge moving to the east. The instability left in the meantime will allow for some showers to persist across the state on Friday, partially Friday morning from the weak low that pops to our south, and partially Friday evening from the stronger line associated with the cold front that will bring heavier rains to the north of us, but clip the state with the edge of the showers to our north. Regardless, no heavy rain is expected, and much of the state may remain dry throughout the day. When showers are not present, partly cloudy skies will be the rule of the day along with extremely warm temperatures for this time of year, with highs passing the 70 degree mark across much of the state.

Here's a look at temps at 8 PM Friday night on the GFS model. Can you find the cold front?
Picture
The cold front from the NW continues to move SE throughout the night, and brings temperatures sharply lower for the weekend, with highs expected to stay in the upper 50s throughout the day on Saturday, which, while still above normal, is much more typical for this time of year. Another re-enforcing shot of cooler air arrives Saturday evening, bringing temperatures back down to near normal levels for Sunday into early next week, with highs in the lower 50s on Sunday and the mid 50s for next Monday and Tuesday. Sunny skies persist throughout the period.

Here are the dailies:
Today: Sunny, with highs in the mid to upper 60s.
Tomorrow: Mostly sunny, some clouds possible in the afternoon, with highs in the mid 60s.
Friday: A chance of showers, otherwise, partly cloudy, with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Chance of precipitation is 30%
Saturday: Partly cloudy to start, then becoming sunny, with highs in the upper 50s. 
Sunday: Mostly sunny, with highs in the low 50s.
Monday: Mostly sunny, with highs in the mid 50s.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with highs in the mid 50s.

Have a great day, and thank you for reading SCW!
​-SA
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    Southern Connecticut Weather is brought to you by Timothy Wrightington Jr. (TW), Spencer Aronstein(SA), Greg Petridis (GP), and Don Bell (DB).

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