After a beautiful late fall weekend, temperatures will warm for the start of the week before two cold fronts arrive. The first will arrive on Wednesday and be accompanied by some rain, while the second, stronger front will arrive on Friday and usher in the coldest air of the season so far for next weekend.
Temps will rise to near-normal after a chilly start this morning, with highs topping out around 50 across the state. Lows tonight will be a bit below normal in the upper 30s to lower 40s, but temperatures tomorrow will rebound nicely, with highs making it into the upper 50s to lower 60s across the state. We should see mostly sunny skies both days, with some clouds overspreading the area west to east on Tuesday afternoon as the cold front approaches from our northwest.
A weak cold front moves across the state from northwest to southeast on Wednesday. While it is relatively moisture starved, some rain showers are likely, with a tenth or two of an inch of rain possible. The GFS and NAM are more bullish on precipitation chances than the Euro, with the GFS strengthening the system much faster when it hits the ocean and allowing more precipitation to develop. For now, will stick closer to the Euro’s depiction and just call for showers on Wednesday, but eastern sections in particular could see a steadier rain for a time later on Wednesday. Highs on Wednesday will be slightly above normal in the low to mid 50s.
Here's a look at the cold front on the GFS.
Seasonably cool temps expected, with near-normal highs and slightly below normal lows expected. Clouds will move offshore as the cold front continues to move southeast, so while Thursday morning will likely start out cloudy over southern and eastern areas, the whole state should see sunshine for the afternoon and into Friday. More clouds move in Friday afternoon as a stronger cold front moves in. This front will carry less moisture than the midweek one, and so widespread precipitation is not expected, but some scattered rain or snow showers are possible, especially across western areas.
Coldest air of the season so far is expected this weekend, with highs not making it out of the low to mid 40s on Saturday and lows being in the upper 20s to lower 30s both Saturday and Sunday mornings. No widespread precipitation is expected, but some lake-effect streamers could make their way across NY State and into western portions of our forecast area. Any precipitation coming from these streamers would likely be a quick snow shower or rain shower, with no significant accumulation or impact expected.
Monday: Mostly sunny, with highs in the lower 50s.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s.
Wednesday: A chance of showers, otherwise, partly cloudy, with highs in the low to mid 50s. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Thursday: Clearing in the morning, then mostly sunny in the afternoon. Highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s.
Friday: A slight chance of showers, otherwise, mostly sunny, with clouds building late. Highs in the low to mid 50s. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Saturday: A slight chance of rain or snow showers, otherwise, partly cloudy. Highs in the mid 40s.
Sunday: Mostly sunny, with highs in the upper 40s.
Finally, an update on the status of our winter forecast; we’re hard at work at it and expect to release it by the end of this week! Have a great week and thank you for reading SCW. –SA