Good evening to you from Southern Connecticut Weather!
After a record warm start to November, with many areas double digits above normal for the month, a return to more fall like weather was the story of the day today, with highs only topping out in the 50s, which, while still a couple of degrees above normal for the date, is much more typical of what you can expect this time of year.
While the pattern looks to continue to remain above normal through the forecast period, it will be a much more subdued above normal than what we have seen in previous weeks, with temperature anomalies falling much closer to seasonal normals. The other change that we will see this week is a return of precipitation chances to the forecast, with two possible systems in line to each bring a round of rain to the state this week.
Tomorrow will bring mostly sunny skies, gradually transitioning cloudier as we approach the evening hours, and slightly above normal temperatures, with highs in the mid to upper 50s across the state. A coastal system then approaches from the south for Tuesday. Previously, guidance kept this system out to sea, but then began to move it west, and for the past day or two, guidance has had it as a traditional coastal and passed it near the 40/70 benchmark, allowing for a steady rain to envelop the area. However, over the past cycle or two, models have brought the system west, resulting in the low running right up the coastline and the main precipitation shield being focused to our west. Here's a shot of the GFS at hour 48, 7 PM Tuesday evening, showing the low near us and the main precipitation shield to our west.
After a record warm start to November, with many areas double digits above normal for the month, a return to more fall like weather was the story of the day today, with highs only topping out in the 50s, which, while still a couple of degrees above normal for the date, is much more typical of what you can expect this time of year.
While the pattern looks to continue to remain above normal through the forecast period, it will be a much more subdued above normal than what we have seen in previous weeks, with temperature anomalies falling much closer to seasonal normals. The other change that we will see this week is a return of precipitation chances to the forecast, with two possible systems in line to each bring a round of rain to the state this week.
Tomorrow will bring mostly sunny skies, gradually transitioning cloudier as we approach the evening hours, and slightly above normal temperatures, with highs in the mid to upper 50s across the state. A coastal system then approaches from the south for Tuesday. Previously, guidance kept this system out to sea, but then began to move it west, and for the past day or two, guidance has had it as a traditional coastal and passed it near the 40/70 benchmark, allowing for a steady rain to envelop the area. However, over the past cycle or two, models have brought the system west, resulting in the low running right up the coastline and the main precipitation shield being focused to our west. Here's a shot of the GFS at hour 48, 7 PM Tuesday evening, showing the low near us and the main precipitation shield to our west.
It should be noted that this is a delay in timing from previous model cycles, which kept the storm moving quicker and further to the east, bringing steady rain to the state throughout the day Tuesday. Should something like todays 12z GGEM model(Shown below for 1 PM Tuesday) verify, that solution would be more likely, but guidance throughout the day has been trending slower and further west with the low, hence leading this forecaster to believe that Tuesday may not be the washout that many had thought it could be.
The question is then what happens after the main coastal low begins to move out. The EURO suggests that the system transfers most of it's energy to the east and drifts off, the only impact to our area being scattered showers, while the GFS and UKMET argue for a CCB(Cold Conveyor Belt, essentially, a wraparound band of precipitation, while this is not a true CCB like what is commonly seen in winter storms, it's got many of the same characteristics) of sorts to develop and for heavier rain to persist through Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning. The NAM brings the CCB much farther north into Maine and New Hampshire, while the GGEM is still supporting the idea of a single, consolidated storm. Considering the model trends and the NAM's bias for being too far north and west, I am throwing out the GGEM and NAM, and will lean towards the GFS and UKMET combo as the model consensus does support a stronger sort of scenario, especially when you consider that the Euro has the same general idea of a wraparound band, yet is very light on QPF. As this is a common Euro bias, I am inclined to discount it, but will still give some weight to the drier scenario. This results in a chance of rain Tuesday, rain likely Tuesday night, and a chance of rain for eastern sections Wednesday morning. Temperatures Tuesday will be at or a degree or two above seasonal norms, with highs in the mid 50s.
Here's QPF from the GFS, UKMET, and Euro for the 6 hour period ending 7 AM Wednesday morning.
Here's QPF from the GFS, UKMET, and Euro for the 6 hour period ending 7 AM Wednesday morning.
After a cloudy start to the morning, skies should clear throughout the day on Wednesday, and we should see again near normal to slightly above normal temperatures, with highs in the low to mid 50s, and a slight gradient from warm to cold from west to east as a result of the departing system.
The dry weather will be short lived as another system approaches for Thursday, this time cutting to our west and bringing in warmer air and rain on it's eastern flank. This is a classic "cutter" storm, which features a quick punch of rain and warm air before a cold front comes in on it's back side. While model agreement is strong in the fact that north and west of us will see the brunt of the precipitation, the consensus diverges on how much Connecticut will be impacted, with the GFS and Canadian arguing for a further eastern track of the low and hence a wetter impact to the state, while the Euro argues for a further west track and hence only some light rain and showers. We will lean towards the Euro here as storms tend to shift NW in the short range in patterns of no blocking as models realize that the mechanism to keep them SE is lacking, resulting in a chance of showers from mid-day Thursday into Thursday night. We should be dry by Friday morning, but some lingering showers could be possible in a GFS/GGEM like solution.
Here's the GFS and Euro for 7 PM Thursday evening. Note the placements of the low over the lakes and the resulting impact to precipitation in the area.
The dry weather will be short lived as another system approaches for Thursday, this time cutting to our west and bringing in warmer air and rain on it's eastern flank. This is a classic "cutter" storm, which features a quick punch of rain and warm air before a cold front comes in on it's back side. While model agreement is strong in the fact that north and west of us will see the brunt of the precipitation, the consensus diverges on how much Connecticut will be impacted, with the GFS and Canadian arguing for a further eastern track of the low and hence a wetter impact to the state, while the Euro argues for a further west track and hence only some light rain and showers. We will lean towards the Euro here as storms tend to shift NW in the short range in patterns of no blocking as models realize that the mechanism to keep them SE is lacking, resulting in a chance of showers from mid-day Thursday into Thursday night. We should be dry by Friday morning, but some lingering showers could be possible in a GFS/GGEM like solution.
Here's the GFS and Euro for 7 PM Thursday evening. Note the placements of the low over the lakes and the resulting impact to precipitation in the area.
Behind this system, cooler air arrives for Friday into the weekend, with temperatures in the low 50s each of the three days. Clear skies are expected through the weekend.
Here are the dailies:
Monday: Mostly sunny, with highs in the upper 50s.
Tuesday: A chance of rain, otherwise, partly sunny, then becoming mostly cloudy, with highs in the mid to upper 50s. Chance of rain is 50%, increasing to 70% in the afternoon.
Tuesday night: Rain likely, otherwise, cloudy. Chance of rain is 85%
Wednesday: A slight chance of showers in the morning, then clearing throughout the day, with highs in the low to mid 50s. Chance of rain is 15%.
Thursday: A chance of rain, otherwise, mostly cloudy, with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Chance of rain is 50%, increasing to 70% during the afternoon hours.
Thursday night: Rain likely, otherwise, cloudy. Chance of rain is 70%
Friday: A slight chance of showers in the morning, then clearing throughout the day, with highs in the mid 50s. Chance of rain is 15%.
Saturday: Mostly sunny, with highs in the lower 50s.
Sunday: Mostly sunny, with highs in the lower 50s.
Before we go, a reminder that we issued our winter forecast last Friday! If you missed it, you can find it here. It's chock full of meteorology, models, maps, graphs, and analysis, so make sure to check it out and get a look at the winter ahead! As a reminder, we're currently ramping up to our full winter operation, and will be on our winter posting schedule of daily updates by the end of the month, where we will remain until early April when we will drop back down to 2-3x weekly. We're also looking to bring on a new forecaster or two for the upcoming winter, so if you or someone you know are interested, check out the end of the winter forecast for more information about what you need to do to be considered for the position.
We'll update Monday evening if needed to refine our forecast for Tuesday's system, otherwise, the next forecasters discussion will be issued on Tuesday. As always, thanks for reading SCW, and have a great week!
-SA
Here are the dailies:
Monday: Mostly sunny, with highs in the upper 50s.
Tuesday: A chance of rain, otherwise, partly sunny, then becoming mostly cloudy, with highs in the mid to upper 50s. Chance of rain is 50%, increasing to 70% in the afternoon.
Tuesday night: Rain likely, otherwise, cloudy. Chance of rain is 85%
Wednesday: A slight chance of showers in the morning, then clearing throughout the day, with highs in the low to mid 50s. Chance of rain is 15%.
Thursday: A chance of rain, otherwise, mostly cloudy, with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Chance of rain is 50%, increasing to 70% during the afternoon hours.
Thursday night: Rain likely, otherwise, cloudy. Chance of rain is 70%
Friday: A slight chance of showers in the morning, then clearing throughout the day, with highs in the mid 50s. Chance of rain is 15%.
Saturday: Mostly sunny, with highs in the lower 50s.
Sunday: Mostly sunny, with highs in the lower 50s.
Before we go, a reminder that we issued our winter forecast last Friday! If you missed it, you can find it here. It's chock full of meteorology, models, maps, graphs, and analysis, so make sure to check it out and get a look at the winter ahead! As a reminder, we're currently ramping up to our full winter operation, and will be on our winter posting schedule of daily updates by the end of the month, where we will remain until early April when we will drop back down to 2-3x weekly. We're also looking to bring on a new forecaster or two for the upcoming winter, so if you or someone you know are interested, check out the end of the winter forecast for more information about what you need to do to be considered for the position.
We'll update Monday evening if needed to refine our forecast for Tuesday's system, otherwise, the next forecasters discussion will be issued on Tuesday. As always, thanks for reading SCW, and have a great week!
-SA
