Good evening to you from Southern Connecticut Weather!
It was certainly a wintry day today across the state, as cold temps, strong winds and snow squalls combined to bring a wintery appeal state-wide. We will see even colder temps tonight into tomorrow before a snowstorm arrives Saturday and brings in a quick warmer period behind it.
Thursday night-Friday
Still expecting dangerously cold temperatures tonight into Friday. Guidance has been consistent with the peak of the winds being overnight tonight into tomorrow morning, with 50-60 mph gusts expected. High Wind Warnings are in effect for the entire state except Litchfield County, where a Wind Advisory is in effect. A reinforcing shot of cold air will arrive over the next few hours and send temperatures down into the single digits for most by morning, with a slight chance at below zero temperatures in the colder inland locations. Wind chills will be below zero statewide except at the immediate shoreline. It won’t get much warmer over the course of the day tomorrow, with daytime highs in the teens to lower 20s and a midnight high in the low to mid 20s. Bundle up and stay warm!
Saturday-Sunday
A two-part system will impact the state this weekend, with the first part bringing a round of accumulating snow on Saturday morning before changing to rain, while the second part will bring rain, possibly changing back to snow, on Sunday. For a detailed breakdown of the models and the setup for part 1, check out our overview discussion from yesterday. The last 24 hours have remained relatively consistent on the guidance, with perhaps a slight trend colder overall for our area. To show this, here’s a look at the 18z NAM from today vs. the 18z NAM from yesterday, both valid for 10 AM Saturday.
It was certainly a wintry day today across the state, as cold temps, strong winds and snow squalls combined to bring a wintery appeal state-wide. We will see even colder temps tonight into tomorrow before a snowstorm arrives Saturday and brings in a quick warmer period behind it.
Thursday night-Friday
Still expecting dangerously cold temperatures tonight into Friday. Guidance has been consistent with the peak of the winds being overnight tonight into tomorrow morning, with 50-60 mph gusts expected. High Wind Warnings are in effect for the entire state except Litchfield County, where a Wind Advisory is in effect. A reinforcing shot of cold air will arrive over the next few hours and send temperatures down into the single digits for most by morning, with a slight chance at below zero temperatures in the colder inland locations. Wind chills will be below zero statewide except at the immediate shoreline. It won’t get much warmer over the course of the day tomorrow, with daytime highs in the teens to lower 20s and a midnight high in the low to mid 20s. Bundle up and stay warm!
Saturday-Sunday
A two-part system will impact the state this weekend, with the first part bringing a round of accumulating snow on Saturday morning before changing to rain, while the second part will bring rain, possibly changing back to snow, on Sunday. For a detailed breakdown of the models and the setup for part 1, check out our overview discussion from yesterday. The last 24 hours have remained relatively consistent on the guidance, with perhaps a slight trend colder overall for our area. To show this, here’s a look at the 18z NAM from today vs. the 18z NAM from yesterday, both valid for 10 AM Saturday.
As of now, I’m not going to change snow amounts, and still expect a plowable event across much of the state. Snow will overspread the state in the wee hours of Saturday morning from SW to NE, and I expect the entire state to be snowing by daybreak. Snow changes to a quick period of freezing rain and then to rain from south to north starting around 8-9 AM Saturday morning through the early afternoon. There has been a trend towards a cold tuck developing, right now, it looks like that will mainly impact areas to our north and east, but it’s worth keeping an eye on it as any further trending towards the colder side will result in a longer period of icing, especially in the traditionally colder pockets of the state. We will revisit the snowmap tomorrow afternoon and make a decision on if any changes are needed then. For reference, here is our initial first call map from yesterday.
Rain moves out Saturday evening and we will see a brief break in the action before the next portion of the system arrives on Sunday morning. As the initial low pushes north into the great lakes and into Canada, an area of precipitation will form along the anafrontal boundary separating the arriving arctic air from warm air being brought up from the south by the main system. We should see a brief spike in temps early Sunday morning as the last of the cold air at the surface mixes out and the warm midlevels are able to reach the surface, leading to temperatures in the 50s across most of the state on Sunday morning ahead of the anafrontal boundary. That warmth will be short-lived, however, as the front will move into our region from NW to SE midday Sunday and bring rain ahead of it. It will be a race between the end of the precipitation and the arrival of the colder temps on Sunday evening, but it’s possible we could see a changeover back to some wet snow to end the event. No additional accumulation is currently expected. Temperatures will continue to fall Sunday evening, ending up in the mid teens to lower 20s in most of the state by Monday morning. This will cause a flash freeze Sunday evening and any standing water from snowmelt or rain will freeze, creating slippery conditions and black ice Sunday evening into Monday. Overall, it looks like a rainy Sunday with warm and muggy temps – preferable to snow for some but equally as annoying for outdoor plans. Best time to get out and about this weekend is probably later Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening, as we will likely see a break then between the first and second phases of the system.
Here’s a look at the second part of the system on the 18z GFS.
Here’s a look at the second part of the system on the 18z GFS.
Monday-Thursday
Below normal temps for Monday and Tuesday give way to above normal temps by the middle of the week. High pressure looks to dominate this period, so expect fair weather with ample sunshine – a nice break after the roller-coaster ride of this weekend! Next system looks to arrive on Thursday. The GFS and GGEM bring another cutter with a mostly rain solution, while the Euro goes for more of a coastal approach and brings snow to the region. Will lean towards the warmer solutions for now considering the pattern and relative outlier status of the Euro regarding both it’s own ensembles/previous runs and the other models.
The Dailies
Friday: Mostly sunny, windy, and very cold, with highs in the teens to lower 20s.
Saturday: Snow early, changing to ice and then rain from southeast to northwest through the morning into early afternoon. Moderate snow accumulations expected – see snowmap above for details. Highs in the mid to upper 30s. Chance of precipitation is 100%.
Sunday: Rain, possibly changing to snow late. Highs in the mid to upper 50s. Chance of rain is 100%.
Monday: Mostly sunny and much colder, with highs in the mid to upper 20s.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with highs in the low to mid 30s.
Wednesday: Partly sunny and warmer, with highs in the mid to upper 30s.
Thursday: A chance of rain or snow. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with highs in the mid to upper 30s. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
We’ll be back tomorrow with a final call on Saturday’s snow event, until then, have a great evening and thank you for trusting SCW as your forecast of choice!
-SA
Below normal temps for Monday and Tuesday give way to above normal temps by the middle of the week. High pressure looks to dominate this period, so expect fair weather with ample sunshine – a nice break after the roller-coaster ride of this weekend! Next system looks to arrive on Thursday. The GFS and GGEM bring another cutter with a mostly rain solution, while the Euro goes for more of a coastal approach and brings snow to the region. Will lean towards the warmer solutions for now considering the pattern and relative outlier status of the Euro regarding both it’s own ensembles/previous runs and the other models.
The Dailies
Friday: Mostly sunny, windy, and very cold, with highs in the teens to lower 20s.
Saturday: Snow early, changing to ice and then rain from southeast to northwest through the morning into early afternoon. Moderate snow accumulations expected – see snowmap above for details. Highs in the mid to upper 30s. Chance of precipitation is 100%.
Sunday: Rain, possibly changing to snow late. Highs in the mid to upper 50s. Chance of rain is 100%.
Monday: Mostly sunny and much colder, with highs in the mid to upper 20s.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with highs in the low to mid 30s.
Wednesday: Partly sunny and warmer, with highs in the mid to upper 30s.
Thursday: A chance of rain or snow. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with highs in the mid to upper 30s. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
We’ll be back tomorrow with a final call on Saturday’s snow event, until then, have a great evening and thank you for trusting SCW as your forecast of choice!
-SA
