Winter has settled in finally, but when in the world is it going to snow?
Remember what I said last month in exasperation--a full scale change to the pattern (many of us) desired was likely to be a long and grueling process. Even though we have seen a marked pattern change, we still have a way to go until we’re primed for a more snowy pattern. That doesn’t mean winter's not here. We saw it earlier this week with our arctic chill and we may be reminded that it is around tomorrow.
Currently, we have an active setup across the US, with heavy rain and severe weather across parts of parched California just now winding down and an area of low pressure in the midwest. This midwest low is making its way northwest, and it will pass well to the west of our region tomorrow and the weekend. As expected, high pressure has remained in control over our region most of the week, and it will begin to slide to our east tonight and into tomorrow.
As the high moves east, there will an easterly component that allows low level moisture to enter the region, setting the stage for a tricky forecast tomorrow morning.
Remember what I said last month in exasperation--a full scale change to the pattern (many of us) desired was likely to be a long and grueling process. Even though we have seen a marked pattern change, we still have a way to go until we’re primed for a more snowy pattern. That doesn’t mean winter's not here. We saw it earlier this week with our arctic chill and we may be reminded that it is around tomorrow.
Currently, we have an active setup across the US, with heavy rain and severe weather across parts of parched California just now winding down and an area of low pressure in the midwest. This midwest low is making its way northwest, and it will pass well to the west of our region tomorrow and the weekend. As expected, high pressure has remained in control over our region most of the week, and it will begin to slide to our east tonight and into tomorrow.
As the high moves east, there will an easterly component that allows low level moisture to enter the region, setting the stage for a tricky forecast tomorrow morning.
18z GFS depiction for tomorrow morning at 7am showing no precipitation.
High Resolution NAM model showing a little moisture around at 7am Friday.
With temperatures already below freezing in many spots, if there is enough low level moisture we could see a period of freezing drizzle or fog, especially in northern Connecticut early tomorrow morning. I think there is a low probability of this happening, but it is something to be mindful of as you head out tomorrow. It only takes a little ice to make things hazardous. Highs tomorrow should be in the upper 30s to low 40s with clouds increasing over the course of the day.
By tomorrow evening, we are watching the radar again, as a weak disturbance passes by. This doesn’t look to be a big event, but it looks like things could start off as a period of light mixed precipitation, freezing rain/drizzle in particular, and a plain rain closer toward the shoreline. I am looking at northwestern Connecticut in particular being at higher risk for mixed precipitation tomorrow night. Conditions could be a bit slick across the state depending on temperatures, but this is not expected to be a significant event.
The National Weather Service has said in their latest forecast that Winter Weather Advisories could be issued for parts of New England tomorrow, but for Connecticut, I think the likelihood is relatively low (30%) for places that could see them (Litchfield County) and even lower (20%) elsewhere. Stay tuned in case things change.
By Saturday, there is still a chance early for light mixed precipitation but good ole cold rain will be likely off and on during the day as low level moisture hangs around and we watch the next and much more robust system approach.
By Sunday, the guidance has come into better agreement that a robust area of low pressure will pass well to our west, putting us squarely in the warm sector. To hammer home the point about avoiding the long range "gospel" of computer guidance, this is the period that was speculated to give us our first big winter weather event a week ago...it will be a rainer.
With temperatures already below freezing in many spots, if there is enough low level moisture we could see a period of freezing drizzle or fog, especially in northern Connecticut early tomorrow morning. I think there is a low probability of this happening, but it is something to be mindful of as you head out tomorrow. It only takes a little ice to make things hazardous. Highs tomorrow should be in the upper 30s to low 40s with clouds increasing over the course of the day.
By tomorrow evening, we are watching the radar again, as a weak disturbance passes by. This doesn’t look to be a big event, but it looks like things could start off as a period of light mixed precipitation, freezing rain/drizzle in particular, and a plain rain closer toward the shoreline. I am looking at northwestern Connecticut in particular being at higher risk for mixed precipitation tomorrow night. Conditions could be a bit slick across the state depending on temperatures, but this is not expected to be a significant event.
The National Weather Service has said in their latest forecast that Winter Weather Advisories could be issued for parts of New England tomorrow, but for Connecticut, I think the likelihood is relatively low (30%) for places that could see them (Litchfield County) and even lower (20%) elsewhere. Stay tuned in case things change.
By Saturday, there is still a chance early for light mixed precipitation but good ole cold rain will be likely off and on during the day as low level moisture hangs around and we watch the next and much more robust system approach.
By Sunday, the guidance has come into better agreement that a robust area of low pressure will pass well to our west, putting us squarely in the warm sector. To hammer home the point about avoiding the long range "gospel" of computer guidance, this is the period that was speculated to give us our first big winter weather event a week ago...it will be a rainer.
This system will move quickly, but it will have periods of heavy rain with it. The system is looking like it will begin very early Sunday morning and continue into the early afternoon, with precip gradually tapering off by evening. Rainfall amounts will be a general 1 to 1.5 inches with 2 inches possible in spots. There could also be some breezy conditions, especially at the coast.
In the warm sector, temperatures will be much above normal (again) and records could be challenged. If you like colder weather, the good thing about this system is that it pulls down quite a bit of more seasonable temperatures in its wake instead of just sitting to our west and flooding us with warmth.
In the warm sector, temperatures will be much above normal (again) and records could be challenged. If you like colder weather, the good thing about this system is that it pulls down quite a bit of more seasonable temperatures in its wake instead of just sitting to our west and flooding us with warmth.
Temperatures at 1pm Sunday vs 1pm on Monday per the GFS. Images courtesy of Weatherbell Analytics.
With breezy and colder conditions returning after our rainstorm, snow lovers will no doubt be more anxious than ever, hoping for a window of opportunity.
Maybe we see such a window open by Wednesday and Thursday, as a primary low associated with a trough moves across the northern US and a secondary low forms off the coast.
Right now, the timing looks off, but cold air should be in place, and we are far enough away where something favorable could develop. I think this is our next chance for some snow, but we are an eternity away from knowing if it will produce, or leave snow lovers with the frowns they will all have on Sunday.
The dailies:
Friday: Freezing drizzle or fog possible in the morning hours, otherwise partly cloudy, with increasing clouds and drizzle during the afternoon. Wintry mix possible in the evening with light rain possible at the shoreline. Highs in the upper 30s to low 40s. Lows in the low to mid 30s. Chance of precipitation 20% early and 50% late.
Saturday: Any lingering frozen precipitation turns to rain showers/drizzle. Mostly cloudy with rain developing by late night/early Sunday morning. Highs in the upper 30s to low 40s. Lows in the mid to upper 30s. Chance of precipitation 30% early and 70% late.
Sunday: Rain, heavy at times in the morning gradually tapering to showers by evening. Record high temperatures possible. Highs in the low to mid 50s. Chance of rain 100%.
Monday: Much colder with a chance of snow showers as reinforcing cold moves in. Otherwise sunny with highs in the mid 30s to near 40 in the cities. Chance of snow 20%.
Tuesday: Partly sunny and seasonably cold. Highs in the low to mid 30s.
Wednesday: SCW period of interest. Highs in the low to mid 30s. Chance of snow 20%.
Thursday: SCW period of interest. Highs in the upper 20s to low 30s. Chance of snow 20%.
Remember, (this) Winter has to crawl before it can walk…and Winter has to walk before it can run…
SCW will be there watching…every step of the way…
-DB
With breezy and colder conditions returning after our rainstorm, snow lovers will no doubt be more anxious than ever, hoping for a window of opportunity.
Maybe we see such a window open by Wednesday and Thursday, as a primary low associated with a trough moves across the northern US and a secondary low forms off the coast.
Right now, the timing looks off, but cold air should be in place, and we are far enough away where something favorable could develop. I think this is our next chance for some snow, but we are an eternity away from knowing if it will produce, or leave snow lovers with the frowns they will all have on Sunday.
The dailies:
Friday: Freezing drizzle or fog possible in the morning hours, otherwise partly cloudy, with increasing clouds and drizzle during the afternoon. Wintry mix possible in the evening with light rain possible at the shoreline. Highs in the upper 30s to low 40s. Lows in the low to mid 30s. Chance of precipitation 20% early and 50% late.
Saturday: Any lingering frozen precipitation turns to rain showers/drizzle. Mostly cloudy with rain developing by late night/early Sunday morning. Highs in the upper 30s to low 40s. Lows in the mid to upper 30s. Chance of precipitation 30% early and 70% late.
Sunday: Rain, heavy at times in the morning gradually tapering to showers by evening. Record high temperatures possible. Highs in the low to mid 50s. Chance of rain 100%.
Monday: Much colder with a chance of snow showers as reinforcing cold moves in. Otherwise sunny with highs in the mid 30s to near 40 in the cities. Chance of snow 20%.
Tuesday: Partly sunny and seasonably cold. Highs in the low to mid 30s.
Wednesday: SCW period of interest. Highs in the low to mid 30s. Chance of snow 20%.
Thursday: SCW period of interest. Highs in the upper 20s to low 30s. Chance of snow 20%.
Remember, (this) Winter has to crawl before it can walk…and Winter has to walk before it can run…
SCW will be there watching…every step of the way…
-DB
