Southern Connecticut Weather
  • Home
  • Forecaster Discussion
  • SCW Social Media Hub
  • SCW Facebook
  • About Us/Contact Us

Forecasters Discussion for 2/15/2019

2/15/2019

Comments

 
Good evening from SCW!

After another mixed mess earlier in the week and warmer temps, we’re heading back towards the colder side of things as the pattern once again becomes active next week. We’re tracking two systems, one for Monday and one for Wednesday into Thursday, and both have the potential to bring wintry weather to the state. Apologies in advance for the lack of images in this discussion - I'm in the middle of nowhere Canada for a ski trip and the internet is borderline unusable. 

Saturday-Sunday

Sunny with seasonable temps as high pressure prevails over the northeast. Could see clouds to start to build Sunday afternoon, but expect any precipitation to hold off until the overnight hours. High temps should be slightly above normal, translating to the upper 30s to lower 40s, with Sunday being a tick cooler than Saturday. A great weekend to go enjoy all of the new snow that has fallen to our north – ski country did very well this week and conditions should be quite nice!

Monday
​

Weak area of low pressure passes to our south, putting us on the cold side of the system and setting us up for an all snow event. Guidance differs here on the amount of moisture the low carries with it, with the Euro only having a tenth of an inch or so of QPF (equal to about an inch of snow) while the GFS is quite a bit more amped up with around a third to a half of an inch of QPF, enough for 3-5” of snow. As always, something in between the two solutions is probably the eventual outcome, although I would lean slightly towards the GFS solution as it has been steadfast in being more aggressive while the Euro has gradually trended wetter. Either way, not expecting a major storm, but a slower commute on Monday morning (for those who don’t have the day off) appears likely. Snow should start late Sunday night and go through about mid-day Monday on the GFS solution, the Euro solution is more compressed on both ends.
​
Here’s a look at total snow from the GFS (left) and CMC (right). The CMC solution is similar to the Euro, with the heavier totals being in southern areas on both models as they are closer to the low center. Should we see a trend even further north, we’d shift the heavier totals into northern areas and southern areas would see a mix with rain, but I don’t think that’s likely right now.
Tuesday
Transition day between two systems as we’re under a brief ridge. Clear and sunny, highs a bit below normal in the mid 30s.
Wednesday-Thursday
A larger, more complex system is on the guidance towards the end of the forecast period. All models agree that the ridging from Tuesday moves up into the classic position to provide cold air damming (and maybe some blocking) for the state, while a stronger system simultaneously moves into the lakes before ultimately developing a secondary low offshore. We’ve seen this story before this winter. While it’s way too early to begin to speculate on amounts, this system does appear to be redeveloping a bit further south than the others have (at least if you believe the guidance) which makes the likelihood for higher snow totals a bit larger than in some of the other systems to date. That said, when you’ve got a low going into the lakes the midlevels naturally want to warm, so under the current guidance depiction this looks like another messy wintry mix event. We’re still quite a ways out from this one though so stay tuned.

Friday

Calm and quiet behind the system with near normal temps.

The Dailies

Saturday: Sunny, with highs in the upper 30s to lower 40s.

Sunday: Mostly sunny, with highs in the upper 30s to lower 40s.

Monday: Snow likely, otherwise, mostly cloudy, with highs in the low to mid 30s. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with highs in the upper 20s to lower 30s.

Wednesday: A chance of snow, otherwise, mostly cloudy, with highs in the upper 20s to lower 30s. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Thursday: A chance of snow, sleet, freezing rain, and rain, otherwise, mostly cloudy, with highs in the low to mid 30s. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Friday: Partly sunny, with highs in the mid 30s.

We’ll be back tomorrow evening with a first call map for Monday if needed (and with more images and a better internet connection :) ), until then have a great weekend and thanks for reading SCW!
-SA
Comments

    Archives

    July 2022
    June 2022
    May 2022
    April 2022
    March 2022
    February 2022
    January 2022
    December 2021
    November 2021
    October 2021
    September 2021
    August 2021
    July 2021
    June 2021
    May 2021
    April 2021
    March 2021
    February 2021
    January 2021
    December 2020
    November 2020
    October 2020
    September 2020
    August 2020
    July 2020
    June 2020
    May 2020
    April 2020
    March 2020
    February 2020
    January 2020
    December 2019
    November 2019
    October 2019
    September 2019
    August 2019
    July 2019
    June 2019
    May 2019
    April 2019
    March 2019
    February 2019
    January 2019
    December 2018
    November 2018
    October 2018
    September 2018
    August 2018
    July 2018
    June 2018
    May 2018
    April 2018
    March 2018
    February 2018
    January 2018
    December 2017
    November 2017
    October 2017
    September 2017
    August 2017
    July 2017
    June 2017
    May 2017
    April 2017
    March 2017
    February 2017
    January 2017
    December 2016
    November 2016
    October 2016
    September 2016
    August 2016
    July 2016
    June 2016
    May 2016
    April 2016
    March 2016
    February 2016
    January 2016
    December 2015
    November 2015
    October 2015
    September 2015
    August 2015
    June 2015
    May 2015
    April 2015
    March 2015
    February 2015
    January 2015
    December 2014
    November 2014
    October 2014

    Categories

    All
    Tropical Weather
    Winter Forecast

    Authors

    Southern Connecticut Weather is brought to you by Timothy Wrightington Jr. (TW), Spencer Aronstein(SA), Greg Petridis (GP), and Don Bell (DB).

Picture
Copyright Southern Connecticut Weather 2018, all rights reserved. 
For website related inquiries, email us at support@southernconnecticutweather.com

Privacy Policy/Terms of Service