Good evening to you from Southern Connecticut Weather!
We’re in the calm after the storm for most of the upcoming forecast period, with generally mild temps and clear skies expected for the majority of the forecast period before things begin to look more active next week. As a result of that and the late hour which I write, tonight’s update will be a bit on the shorter side, with much more detail to follow on these systems, should they remain on guidance, in the coming days!
Tomorrow will likely be the coldest day of the forecast period, with highs in the upper 20s to lower 30s, about 5-10 degrees below normal across the state. We’ll see mostly sunny skies, so with the February sun angle, it should be quite pleasant out. Friday will bring more sunshine and warmer temps to the state, with highs right around normal in the upper 30s. Cloud cover starts to build Friday evening as a clipper system passes to our north, and we could see some light snow or rain across the state Friday night or Saturday morning, especially in the northern tier.
We’re in the calm after the storm for most of the upcoming forecast period, with generally mild temps and clear skies expected for the majority of the forecast period before things begin to look more active next week. As a result of that and the late hour which I write, tonight’s update will be a bit on the shorter side, with much more detail to follow on these systems, should they remain on guidance, in the coming days!
Tomorrow will likely be the coldest day of the forecast period, with highs in the upper 20s to lower 30s, about 5-10 degrees below normal across the state. We’ll see mostly sunny skies, so with the February sun angle, it should be quite pleasant out. Friday will bring more sunshine and warmer temps to the state, with highs right around normal in the upper 30s. Cloud cover starts to build Friday evening as a clipper system passes to our north, and we could see some light snow or rain across the state Friday night or Saturday morning, especially in the northern tier.
The weekend looks cloudy, but very mild, with highs in the 40s to near 50 expected both Saturday and Sunday! We will see some breaks in the clouds at times, especially on Sunday, so between that and the warm temps, it will be a beautiful weekend to be outside enjoying the early spring-like weather!
Our first chance for significant precipitation comes from a clipper system diving down from Alberta Sunday night into Monday. Modeling is split on how to handle this system, with some runs taking the low well to our south and shearing it out under high pressure, while some runs allow for a low pressure system to develop south of Long Island and as a result bring some heavier precipitation into our area. As of now, precipitation type looks like it would marginally support snow, especially away from the coastline, should the second solution verify, but considering the lead time and model variances, I am hesitant to be bullish on this system for chances of sufficient snowfall, especially considering that the trend for both this season and for clipper systems in general has been for north shifts in the final runs to verification, which would put us under the low and bring mainly rain to the area. As such, will forecast a chance of rain and snow for Sunday night and Monday and allow the next forecaster to work out the details as we see more guidance.
Here's a look at the 12z and 0z GGEM, the 12z showing the further north option while the 0z shows the sheared out option.
Our first chance for significant precipitation comes from a clipper system diving down from Alberta Sunday night into Monday. Modeling is split on how to handle this system, with some runs taking the low well to our south and shearing it out under high pressure, while some runs allow for a low pressure system to develop south of Long Island and as a result bring some heavier precipitation into our area. As of now, precipitation type looks like it would marginally support snow, especially away from the coastline, should the second solution verify, but considering the lead time and model variances, I am hesitant to be bullish on this system for chances of sufficient snowfall, especially considering that the trend for both this season and for clipper systems in general has been for north shifts in the final runs to verification, which would put us under the low and bring mainly rain to the area. As such, will forecast a chance of rain and snow for Sunday night and Monday and allow the next forecaster to work out the details as we see more guidance.
Here's a look at the 12z and 0z GGEM, the 12z showing the further north option while the 0z shows the sheared out option.
Right behind this system comes the potential for a more significant system as a low comes up the coastline midweek next week. Model guidance has excellent consensus on the idea of a large system in the area around this time, however, it differs greatly on it’s track. The GFS runs the system up the Hudson Valley and brings mainly rain to our area after an initial burst of snow, while the GGEM and Euro are much colder due to a well-placed Canadian high to our north and the system tracking off the coastline as a result. Under that scenario, we would see an initial thump of snow, likely a changeover to sleet or freezing rain, and then a return to snow as the system pulled away. As of now, considering the model variability and lead time, I will not attempt to make any sort of decisions on which track to favor and will call for a chance of rain and snow from Tuesday night through Wednesday, but considering the difficulty of getting a large coastal storm to verify this winter, I caution those who jump on this too quickly… Much more to come should this system continue to be a threat!
Here are the dailies:
Thursday: Mostly sunny, with highs around 30.
Friday: Mostly sunny, with highs in the upper 30s.
Friday night: A chance of rain or snow, otherwise, mostly cloudy, with lows in the upper 20s. Chance of precipitation is 40%
Saturday: Mostly cloudy, with a slight chance of rain or snow. Highs in the low to mid 40s. Chance of precipitation is 20%
Sunday: Partly cloudy, with highs in the low to mid 40s.
Monday: A chance of rain or snow, otherwise, mostly cloudy, with highs in the lower 40s. Chance of precipitation is 40%
Tuesday: Partly cloudy, with highs in the upper 30s.
Tuesday night: A chance of snow, otherwise, mostly cloudy, with lows in the upper 20s. Chance of precipitation is 40%
Wednesday: A chance of rain or snow, otherwise, mostly cloudy, with highs around 40. Chance of precipitation is 60%
Have a great Thursday and thanks for reading SCW!
-SA
Here are the dailies:
Thursday: Mostly sunny, with highs around 30.
Friday: Mostly sunny, with highs in the upper 30s.
Friday night: A chance of rain or snow, otherwise, mostly cloudy, with lows in the upper 20s. Chance of precipitation is 40%
Saturday: Mostly cloudy, with a slight chance of rain or snow. Highs in the low to mid 40s. Chance of precipitation is 20%
Sunday: Partly cloudy, with highs in the low to mid 40s.
Monday: A chance of rain or snow, otherwise, mostly cloudy, with highs in the lower 40s. Chance of precipitation is 40%
Tuesday: Partly cloudy, with highs in the upper 30s.
Tuesday night: A chance of snow, otherwise, mostly cloudy, with lows in the upper 20s. Chance of precipitation is 40%
Wednesday: A chance of rain or snow, otherwise, mostly cloudy, with highs around 40. Chance of precipitation is 60%
Have a great Thursday and thanks for reading SCW!
-SA
