Good evening from Southern Connecticut Weather!
Synopsis: An Arctic front moves through with snow showers and squalls tonight. Very cold air behind the front moves in for Thursday and Friday. A winter storm will affect the state this weekend followed by more Arctic air next week.
An Arctic front, currently over Pennsylvania and upstate New York has a line of snow showers and squalls associated with it. Although the actual line of precipitation is narrow, it was heavy at times. This combined with the very cold ground should yield a quick period of accumulating snow. Accumulations, however, should be relatively light, because of the fast movement and narrow nature of the squalls. My thinking right now is that most places will get less than an inch of snow, but up to two inches is possible in two areas: the Litchfield Hills, and also across far Eastern Connecticut, where some coastal enhancement may occur.
The next two days will be very cold. Tomorrow morning’s temperatures will be in the single digits in the North and teens in the South. They will basically hold steady all day. Another band of snow showers is possible later in the afternoon, but most accumulations with this band should be restricted to the Litchfield Hills and be less than an inch. The real story tomorrow and Friday will be the cold and wind. Tomorrow night’s low temperatures will be below zero everywhere, except near zero in the urban centers along the South Coast, such as Bridgeport and New Haven. Combine this with a gusty wind, with gusts up to 35-40 MPH, and wind chills will be -15 on the South Coast to -30 in the Litchfield Hills. Anyone who has to spend a significant time outside working or walking should cover any exposed flesh and dress appropriately. Here's a look at forecast wind chills from the 0z GFS model.
Synopsis: An Arctic front moves through with snow showers and squalls tonight. Very cold air behind the front moves in for Thursday and Friday. A winter storm will affect the state this weekend followed by more Arctic air next week.
An Arctic front, currently over Pennsylvania and upstate New York has a line of snow showers and squalls associated with it. Although the actual line of precipitation is narrow, it was heavy at times. This combined with the very cold ground should yield a quick period of accumulating snow. Accumulations, however, should be relatively light, because of the fast movement and narrow nature of the squalls. My thinking right now is that most places will get less than an inch of snow, but up to two inches is possible in two areas: the Litchfield Hills, and also across far Eastern Connecticut, where some coastal enhancement may occur.
The next two days will be very cold. Tomorrow morning’s temperatures will be in the single digits in the North and teens in the South. They will basically hold steady all day. Another band of snow showers is possible later in the afternoon, but most accumulations with this band should be restricted to the Litchfield Hills and be less than an inch. The real story tomorrow and Friday will be the cold and wind. Tomorrow night’s low temperatures will be below zero everywhere, except near zero in the urban centers along the South Coast, such as Bridgeport and New Haven. Combine this with a gusty wind, with gusts up to 35-40 MPH, and wind chills will be -15 on the South Coast to -30 in the Litchfield Hills. Anyone who has to spend a significant time outside working or walking should cover any exposed flesh and dress appropriately. Here's a look at forecast wind chills from the 0z GFS model.
Some moderation will occur on Saturday as the Arctic high Pressure system moves offshore and loosens its grip on the state. Later in the day on Saturday, snow will develop ahead of the next approaching system and invade the state from Southwest to Northeast. This storm will likely occupy most of the weekend. This storm will track west of the state- taking a track much different than what we have seen recently. Because of this, the snow will likely change to freezing rain and then ultimately rain. While it is still far too early to speculate on accumulations, right now this looks like a light accumulation, followed by minor icing, and then moderate rain along the South coast… moderate accumulation followed by icing and a little rain in the Central, and significant snow followed by significant icing in the North. It is probable that the Litchfield Hills never change to rain at all. If this storm takes an even warmer course, it is possible that rain amounts could be heavier, especially along the south coast, which would create flooding and roof cave in issues, due to the weight of the snow and frozen nature of the ground. If this storm takes a colder course, which is certainly possible given the pattern this season, then more significant icing issues would be possible further South through the state. Either way, precipitation probably changes to snow later Sunday before ending Sunday night with some additional accumulations possible. Another issue from this storm would be a flash freeze. Temperatures should fall quickly Sunday night and probably continue dropping through the day on Monday back into the teens and possibly even single digits North. This would freeze any standing water and leftover snowpack like a rock and create very slippery conditions…. Stay tuned!
Here's a look at the various parts of the system on the GFS model.
Here's a look at the various parts of the system on the GFS model.
Yet another Arctic air mass will overspread the state to start the next week, though temperatures probably won’t be as cold as what we have just seen, partly due to the fact that we are approaching March. There are some hints of a potential coastal storm somewhere around Tuesday or Wednesday, but right now, most indications are that most of the effects of this storm stay South of the area. However, being this far out in time, it is way too early to say definitively one way or the other.
Thank you for reading SCW!
-GP
