Good evening to you from Southern Connecticut Weather!
What a day for weather in Connecticut! One of the most intense snowstorms in years passed through the state today, bringing widespread snowfall rates of 2-3” per hour statewide. We also saw what was arguably the most widespread thundersnow outbreak I've seen in my seven years forecasting, which at least for me, was the highlight of the storm!
Snow totals ranged from 10-18” across the state, with the heaviest numbers in the I91 corridor where the band stalled out as the storm pivoted, allowing a bit of extra time under the heavy rates. We’ll do a more widespread post-mortem when we have a break in the action to catch our breath, but for now, I’m very happy with this forecast. We started with 6-12” on Tuesday night and slowly upped amounts as the magnitude of the system continued to increase, and our final call of 12-20”(10-16” SE) will verify nicely in most areas. One could make an argument that sticking with 10-16” from last night would have been just as good and eliminated the need for a mid-storm upgrade, but we wanted to highlight the intensity that we were seeing on radar this morning and the possibility for some isolated spots to close in on 20”. In this business, we’ll take this one as a well-earned success. Thank you to everyone who sent us snow totals and pictures today – keep an eye out for new cover photos on our Facebook and Twitter pages soon!
Friday-Saturday
Here’s our forecast snowmap for tomorrow evening into Saturday morning.
What a day for weather in Connecticut! One of the most intense snowstorms in years passed through the state today, bringing widespread snowfall rates of 2-3” per hour statewide. We also saw what was arguably the most widespread thundersnow outbreak I've seen in my seven years forecasting, which at least for me, was the highlight of the storm!
Snow totals ranged from 10-18” across the state, with the heaviest numbers in the I91 corridor where the band stalled out as the storm pivoted, allowing a bit of extra time under the heavy rates. We’ll do a more widespread post-mortem when we have a break in the action to catch our breath, but for now, I’m very happy with this forecast. We started with 6-12” on Tuesday night and slowly upped amounts as the magnitude of the system continued to increase, and our final call of 12-20”(10-16” SE) will verify nicely in most areas. One could make an argument that sticking with 10-16” from last night would have been just as good and eliminated the need for a mid-storm upgrade, but we wanted to highlight the intensity that we were seeing on radar this morning and the possibility for some isolated spots to close in on 20”. In this business, we’ll take this one as a well-earned success. Thank you to everyone who sent us snow totals and pictures today – keep an eye out for new cover photos on our Facebook and Twitter pages soon!
Friday-Saturday
Here’s our forecast snowmap for tomorrow evening into Saturday morning.
First off, I am expecting a slow commute tomorrow morning due to poor visibility and potentially slippery roads, especially on the secondary roads, so leave some extra time in the AM just in case. Lots of school closings and delays coming in already as well.
Moving past this system, the main attraction in the short range is a clipper system that will bring a light snowfall to the state tomorrow evening into Saturday. A shortwave drops southeast from Alberta and scoots under us before weakly redeveloping off the coastline. This system will be relatively weak, and so snow amounts will be limited, but a quick couple of inches appear likely. Model consensus is in good agreement on this event – clippers tend to be well modeled, and this one has been very consistent since early this week. Snow should start late tomorrow evening and wrap up by early Saturday morning. A minor event, but keep it in mind if you’ve got plans Friday evening or early Saturday.
Given the above, have gone ahead and issued a map for 1-3” statewide, with locally 4” possible if a quick period of moderate snow develops in northern areas.
Here’s a look at the clipper on the NAM and GFS.
Moving past this system, the main attraction in the short range is a clipper system that will bring a light snowfall to the state tomorrow evening into Saturday. A shortwave drops southeast from Alberta and scoots under us before weakly redeveloping off the coastline. This system will be relatively weak, and so snow amounts will be limited, but a quick couple of inches appear likely. Model consensus is in good agreement on this event – clippers tend to be well modeled, and this one has been very consistent since early this week. Snow should start late tomorrow evening and wrap up by early Saturday morning. A minor event, but keep it in mind if you’ve got plans Friday evening or early Saturday.
Given the above, have gone ahead and issued a map for 1-3” statewide, with locally 4” possible if a quick period of moderate snow develops in northern areas.
Here’s a look at the clipper on the NAM and GFS.
Otherwise, the main story for the short range will be the cold; highs tomorrow are expected to only be in the low to mid 20s. Temps will rebound into the low 40s on Saturday.
Sunday-Monday
Another potentially significant storm could impact the state during this time period. This will be an overrunning type event to start with, with low pressure coming out of the Ohio Valley and moving eastward into the area. Guidance then splits on what happens next. Both the Euro and GFS redevelop the storm, but the GFS keeps it relatively weak while the Euro and UKMET develop strong lows off the coastline. In the former scenario, precipitation over the state would be relatively weak, with mainly rain south and a wintry mix in the interior, while in the latter scenario, dynamics will result in some front end snow flipping to heavy rain flipping to heavy snow for the interior, with significant accumulations possible. Coastal areas would see some front end snow to heavy rain, and possibly some back end snow as well. Timing would be from Sunday afternoon through Monday morning.
Here is a look at the Euro and GFS surface placements for 7 AM Monday. Similar placements, but the Euro is much stronger!
It’s worth pointing out that the 18z GFS (what is shown here) trended fairly significantly towards the Euro; the 12z GFS didn’t strengthen the low until it was well past our latitude and thus negated our area from any significant impact. I want to see another couple of cycles of consistency from the Euro before becoming more confident in a significant event, but the potential is definitely there. The Euro also had rock solid consensus from it’s ensembles on a major event, which is always something to look for (one of the first red flags for todays event was that the ensembles were consistently wetter than the operational models, suggesting that the operational models were underdoing liquid. As we saw over the past 36 hours of trends and in today’s event, that suggestion proved to be correct). So for now, we will keep an eye on the trends, and will have much more on this system in the near future if it appears as if it will pose a threat to the area. If needed, a first call map would be issued on Saturday.
Tuesday-Thursday
Below normal and active pattern looks to continue into the middle of next week, with another clipper system showing up on guidance for midweek. This one, at least according to the Euro and GFS, could have a bit more upside as the low develops sooner, but way too early to look at details on that right now. Will paint in low chance pops for snow in the dailies and allow future forecasters to elaborate in more detail.
The Dailies
Friday: Partly sunny, then clouds building later with a slight chance of snow showers. Then snow in the evening and overnight. Highs in the low to mid 20s. Chance of snow is 40% before 8 PM and 80% 8 PM – 6 AM.
Saturday: A slight chance of snow showers, otherwise, mostly cloudy, with highs in the low 40s. Chance of snow is 40%.
Sunday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain or snow later in the day. Highs in the mid 30s. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Monday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow. Highs in the low to mid 30s. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with highs in the mid to upper 30s.
Wednesday: A chance of snow, otherwise, partly cloudy, with highs in the mid 30s. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
We’ve got an action packed period of weather coming up, so make sure to stay right here with Southern Connecticut Weather for the best source of hype free weather info out there. To all our new readers from this storm, welcome to the SCW family, and to all our loyal readers, thank you for continuing to trust us as your source for Connecticut weather!
-SA
Tuesday-Thursday
Below normal and active pattern looks to continue into the middle of next week, with another clipper system showing up on guidance for midweek. This one, at least according to the Euro and GFS, could have a bit more upside as the low develops sooner, but way too early to look at details on that right now. Will paint in low chance pops for snow in the dailies and allow future forecasters to elaborate in more detail.
The Dailies
Friday: Partly sunny, then clouds building later with a slight chance of snow showers. Then snow in the evening and overnight. Highs in the low to mid 20s. Chance of snow is 40% before 8 PM and 80% 8 PM – 6 AM.
Saturday: A slight chance of snow showers, otherwise, mostly cloudy, with highs in the low 40s. Chance of snow is 40%.
Sunday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain or snow later in the day. Highs in the mid 30s. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Monday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow. Highs in the low to mid 30s. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with highs in the mid to upper 30s.
Wednesday: A chance of snow, otherwise, partly cloudy, with highs in the mid 30s. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
We’ve got an action packed period of weather coming up, so make sure to stay right here with Southern Connecticut Weather for the best source of hype free weather info out there. To all our new readers from this storm, welcome to the SCW family, and to all our loyal readers, thank you for continuing to trust us as your source for Connecticut weather!
-SA
