Synopsis: High pressure sliding offshore will allow a storm system to move northeastward from the Gulf Coast states. Believe it or not, even though we are entering late March, the biggest question will not be rain or snow, but how far north the precipitation makes it.
Tonight is the proverbial calm before the storm. Clear skies and light winds will allow temperatures to drop quickly via radiational cooling for at least the first part of the night, then as clouds increase from southwest to northeast, temperatures will become more steady as the night goes on.
Tomorrow is the first day of spring, but the weather really won’t resemble spring, as spring will arrive with a snowstorm. Snow should develop during the morning rush hour in the southwest and by noon in the far northeast. Across the southern portions of the state, snow will be heavy at times during the day. Models generally now agree that both surface and upper air temperatures will be supportive of an all-snow event, with the biggest question being how much precipitation falls. Fortunately, the overnight models have come into better agreement, with the southernmost models trending northward, and the northernmost models trending southward. Another consideration is that the thermal profile is colder in the north, as is almost always the case, so even if there is less precipitation, accumulations will be more efficient. So the big question is how much less the precipitation will be in the north. If the precipitation is significantly less, then accumulations would be lower, but if precipitation is just slightly less up north, then accumulations would probably be just a touch lower. For now, my general thinking is that most of the state gets an “advisory type event”, with the exception being northern Connecticut west of I-91. Up there, there is too much dry air, and the center of low pressure will be passing too far to the east and southeast.
Here is my latest thinking regarding accumulations:
Tonight is the proverbial calm before the storm. Clear skies and light winds will allow temperatures to drop quickly via radiational cooling for at least the first part of the night, then as clouds increase from southwest to northeast, temperatures will become more steady as the night goes on.
Tomorrow is the first day of spring, but the weather really won’t resemble spring, as spring will arrive with a snowstorm. Snow should develop during the morning rush hour in the southwest and by noon in the far northeast. Across the southern portions of the state, snow will be heavy at times during the day. Models generally now agree that both surface and upper air temperatures will be supportive of an all-snow event, with the biggest question being how much precipitation falls. Fortunately, the overnight models have come into better agreement, with the southernmost models trending northward, and the northernmost models trending southward. Another consideration is that the thermal profile is colder in the north, as is almost always the case, so even if there is less precipitation, accumulations will be more efficient. So the big question is how much less the precipitation will be in the north. If the precipitation is significantly less, then accumulations would be lower, but if precipitation is just slightly less up north, then accumulations would probably be just a touch lower. For now, my general thinking is that most of the state gets an “advisory type event”, with the exception being northern Connecticut west of I-91. Up there, there is too much dry air, and the center of low pressure will be passing too far to the east and southeast.
Here is my latest thinking regarding accumulations:
Snow will taper off and come to an end tomorrow night, during rush hour in the southwest and around midnight in the northeast. There are still a few questions regarding the end of the precipitation and some specifics. First, some of the latest short-range models are suggesting that the coastal low may develop a bit faster than originally expected. If this happens, there could be an additional period of light to moderate snow Saturday morning, especially in eastern Connecticut. Next, even if this does not happen, there is the possibility of lingering moisture at the surface, which could produce a period of freezing drizzle. Both of these possibilities need to be monitored. Either way, tomorrow night winds up very cold, especially as skies clear later at night. Temperatures will plummet into the 20-25 degree range along the south coast, with teens for most of the rest of the state. Saturday’s temperatures will probably be a bit cooler than originally modeled, with fresh snowcover and a cold air mass in place. Highs will most likely range from the mid 40s along the south coast to the upper 30s up north.
Saturday night, a reinforcing cold shot will approach and bring a brief round of showers to the state, centered around the midnight hour. These showers start as rain and possibly change to sleet and snow, with the best chances of snow up north. No accumulations are expected, except possibly in the hills, where a coating may occur here or there.
Saturday night, a reinforcing cold shot will approach and bring a brief round of showers to the state, centered around the midnight hour. These showers start as rain and possibly change to sleet and snow, with the best chances of snow up north. No accumulations are expected, except possibly in the hills, where a coating may occur here or there.
I didn’t devote much time to later periods, but it does look like something of a moderating trend in temperatures will occur early next week, with a storm system, probably a rainy one, centered around midweek. Overall, however, the pattern looks cold and stormy going forward, and even though we are heading into spring, snow chances may not yet be done after tomorrow.
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