…VERY UNSETTLED WEEK ON THE WAY…
Synopsis: It almost felt like spring to some across the area today. However, to put this into perspective as to how cold it’s been, temperatures today were still a solid 5-10 degrees below normal, and we’re coming off a moderate to significant snowfall. High pressure will move over the area tonight and offshore tomorrow, which will allow a storm system to track up to our west and bring the next wintry threat to Connecticut.
Tonight: Temperatures will plunge once again into the single digits across much of the state, with low teens across the south coast. Skies will be clear with light winds, and with fresh deep snowcover, will allow for nearly perfect radiational cooling conditions. As a result, we’ll see lows drop into the teens tonight, as shown here on the Hi-res NAM model.
Synopsis: It almost felt like spring to some across the area today. However, to put this into perspective as to how cold it’s been, temperatures today were still a solid 5-10 degrees below normal, and we’re coming off a moderate to significant snowfall. High pressure will move over the area tonight and offshore tomorrow, which will allow a storm system to track up to our west and bring the next wintry threat to Connecticut.
Tonight: Temperatures will plunge once again into the single digits across much of the state, with low teens across the south coast. Skies will be clear with light winds, and with fresh deep snowcover, will allow for nearly perfect radiational cooling conditions. As a result, we’ll see lows drop into the teens tonight, as shown here on the Hi-res NAM model.
Tomorrow: Clouds rapidly increase across the state from Southwest to Northeast. Precipitation will probably overspread the state right in time for the evening rush hour, but impacts on the rush will probably only be felt across the far Southwest, since precipitation will only be just starting across much of the rest of the state. Precipitation will start as snow everywhere, with temperatures in the 20s at the surface, and plenty of cold air aloft initially. Here’s a look at the forecast snowfall for the state through tomorrow evening.
Tomorrow Night/Wed: Snow quickly changes to sleet and freezing rain. Sleet may fall heavily on top of the snow for a while, with more accumulations, before changing to freezing rain. This is the most troublesome and difficult part of the forecast- not just because freezing rain is the most dangerous type of precipitation, but also because it’s going to be extremely difficult determining the exact timing that temperatures rise above freezing. Normally, with a storm track like this one, it would be very easy going for a quick changeover to plain rain, but this is not a normal pattern. First off, ocean temperatures are near record lows, the Long Island Sound is mostly frozen, and most of the area that the warm air is going to be coming from is snowcovered. In other words, it may be difficult to advect a significant amount of warm air if there isn’t a large source of warm air. As far as amounts go, we are expecting a general 1-3” across the state, with isolated areas of up to 4” possible in the northwest hills. Snow amounts should be light and uniform across the state, and icing, in general, should be heavier north, but may stick around longer in valleys, since cold air is hard to scour out of valleys. Keep in mind, even light ice accumulations can cause big problems, so don’t focus on amounts and exercise extreme caution when driving. Eventually, we should see a changeover to plain rain, but not before up to a tenth of an inch of ice has fallen on the shoreline, with up to a quarter of an inch possible in some spots inland.
Wed night/Thur: Call it Round Two if you will. Although technically a separate storm, this storm would not exist without the first one, so it is related to the first storm, although it’s not “backlash” and is its own entity. A storm system will form along a stalling frontal boundary. Light rain will quickly change to sleet and then snow during the evening rush hour on Wednesday. Some sleet may accumulate before changing over to snow. I don’t want to get into amounts because we are only issuing a map for event one, but with bonafide Arctic air heading in and a true coastal wave of low pressure developing, accumulations could be significant. Snow winds down Thursday afternoon. Here’s a look at this storm on the GFS and NAM models, showing the differences in the placement of the front and hence precipitation distribution and rain/snow line. In general, leaning towards a consensus of the models for this forecast that favors a scenario similar to the one described above.
Wed night/Thur: Call it Round Two if you will. Although technically a separate storm, this storm would not exist without the first one, so it is related to the first storm, although it’s not “backlash” and is its own entity. A storm system will form along a stalling frontal boundary. Light rain will quickly change to sleet and then snow during the evening rush hour on Wednesday. Some sleet may accumulate before changing over to snow. I don’t want to get into amounts because we are only issuing a map for event one, but with bonafide Arctic air heading in and a true coastal wave of low pressure developing, accumulations could be significant. Snow winds down Thursday afternoon. Here’s a look at this storm on the GFS and NAM models, showing the differences in the placement of the front and hence precipitation distribution and rain/snow line. In general, leaning towards a consensus of the models for this forecast that favors a scenario similar to the one described above.
Extended: With fresh snowcover, clearing skies and yet another Arctic air mass building in, temperatures will plummet Thursday night. In fact, it looks like Friday’s lows will be in the single digits everywhere, with some below zero readings even possible in the normally colder spots! Welcome to meteorological Spring! At least the fact that it’s March and the sun will be out will allow temperatures to rebound and perhaps make a run at 30 degrees in the warmer spots Friday afternoon!
Next weekend looks quiet, with moderating temperatures. Another cold front approaches Monday with some snow showers possible, but this system does not appear to have much moisture with it at this time.
Keep an eye out for updates beginning tomorrow afternoon with the onset of snow and continuing throughout the evening as needed, as well as for a first call map for snows Wednesday night into Thursday. Thank you for reading Southern Connecticut Weather!
-GP
Next weekend looks quiet, with moderating temperatures. Another cold front approaches Monday with some snow showers possible, but this system does not appear to have much moisture with it at this time.
Keep an eye out for updates beginning tomorrow afternoon with the onset of snow and continuing throughout the evening as needed, as well as for a first call map for snows Wednesday night into Thursday. Thank you for reading Southern Connecticut Weather!
-GP
