A very good Friday evening to you from Southern Connecticut Weather!
As we mentioned in our update on Wednesday, we’ve been watching an inverted trough feature for tomorrow that looks to develop in the area and bring some snow to the region. Over the last 24-36 hours or so, models have come into agreement on a slightly stronger trough combined with better dynamics aloft, and the end result is the potential for a slightly higher impact event in terms of total accumulations. Unfortunately, pinpointing where that will be is going to be difficult.
An inverted trough, especially one of this variety(a NORLUN trough), is generally characterized by a thin band of moderate to heavy snow, diminishing rapidly to light snow or even flurries on either side of it. The area which ends up under the meat of the band can pile up quite a bit of snow in a short time, while areas just a few miles away can get almost nothing. Combine that with the fact that they are notoriously difficult to model, and it’s a forecasters nightmare.
Here’s a look at the forecast liquid equivalent as snow maps from some of our forecast guidance. 2.5mm = 0.1” liquid == ~1” snow. They shouldn’t be used verbatim, especially in a situation like this one, but they’re a good visual as to what each model is “thinking”
As we mentioned in our update on Wednesday, we’ve been watching an inverted trough feature for tomorrow that looks to develop in the area and bring some snow to the region. Over the last 24-36 hours or so, models have come into agreement on a slightly stronger trough combined with better dynamics aloft, and the end result is the potential for a slightly higher impact event in terms of total accumulations. Unfortunately, pinpointing where that will be is going to be difficult.
An inverted trough, especially one of this variety(a NORLUN trough), is generally characterized by a thin band of moderate to heavy snow, diminishing rapidly to light snow or even flurries on either side of it. The area which ends up under the meat of the band can pile up quite a bit of snow in a short time, while areas just a few miles away can get almost nothing. Combine that with the fact that they are notoriously difficult to model, and it’s a forecasters nightmare.
Here’s a look at the forecast liquid equivalent as snow maps from some of our forecast guidance. 2.5mm = 0.1” liquid == ~1” snow. They shouldn’t be used verbatim, especially in a situation like this one, but they’re a good visual as to what each model is “thinking”
The general theme on these maps is pretty clear, that is, the further east in the state you are, the better chance you have of seeing accumulating snow tomorrow. Quite a few of the models are showing advisory level snows into eastern CT, and some also bring 1”+ all the way back to the western two counties. However, I’m skeptical of believing those numbers. Considering the marginal airmass, strong sun angle, and warm ground temps, light rates are likely not going to be enough to accumulate during the daytime hours. Under the moderate to heavy bands though, different story, as once you have snow rates of a half an inch an hour or more(generally speaking, sometimes it’s a bit less, sometimes a bit more), the sun angle can be overcome and accumulations can still happen as normal. Therefore, the gradient between slushy coatings on grass and perhaps a couple inches of snow will be entirely dependent on where the bands form and if they are stationary or move about to impact a larger portion of the state.
Considering this, our forecast map eschews specific ranges in favor of more of a summary of the likely and possible situations. Here it is below.
Considering this, our forecast map eschews specific ranges in favor of more of a summary of the likely and possible situations. Here it is below.
As far as timing goes, light snow moves into the state tomorrow morning, expanding west as the morning goes on. Bands will begin to develop as the day goes on, and will result in isolated pockets of 1”+ per hour snowfall, while snow showers/light snow persists in the rest of the state. Snow continues into the overnight hours, where snow of all intensities should be able to accumulate, before moving out by sunrise Sunday. Any accumulations should melt quickly on Sunday given the forecast of 40s and sunshine.
If you’re going to be out and about tomorrow, pay attention to your surroundings, as only short distances will separate light snow from travel impacting moderate to heavy snow. Squalls will certainly cause travel impacts in spots, so stay alert and be prepared to slow down if needed!
We’ll be updating throughout the day tomorrow on our Facebook page(www.facebook.com/southernconnecticutweather) , so make sure to watch for updates and stay informed. Thanks for reading SCW!
-SA
If you’re going to be out and about tomorrow, pay attention to your surroundings, as only short distances will separate light snow from travel impacting moderate to heavy snow. Squalls will certainly cause travel impacts in spots, so stay alert and be prepared to slow down if needed!
We’ll be updating throughout the day tomorrow on our Facebook page(www.facebook.com/southernconnecticutweather) , so make sure to watch for updates and stay informed. Thanks for reading SCW!
-SA
