Southern Connecticut Weather
  • Home
  • Forecaster Discussion
  • SCW Social Media Hub
  • SCW Facebook
  • About Us/Contact Us

Forecasters Discussion for 3/3/2017

3/3/2017

Comments

 
Good evening to you from Southern Connecticut Weather!
 
Winter has made a return to Connecticut this evening, with some scattered snow squalls and seasonable temperatures that feel quite chilly after the warmth we’ve had the past few weeks. It will be even colder for the weekend, with highs tomorrow not getting out of the mid 20s in most areas and lows tomorrow night dropping into the single digits in parts of the state. The cold will not last, however, as warm air arrives to start the workweek and another wet system approaches for midweek.
 
Saturday-Sunday
 
The main story this weekend is the cold! Strong arctic high moved into the region this evening, accompanied by a few snow showers. Reinforcing shots of cold air will arrive tomorrow morning and tomorrow evening, and as such we will be seeing temps that are 10+ degrees below normal for January, never mind March! Expect daytime highs in the mid 20s on Saturday and lows in the upper single digits to low teens on Sunday morning. It will also be a bit breezy tomorrow afternoon into the overnight hours, leading to below zero wind chills on Sunday morning. After the warm weather we’ve been having, this will definitely be a bit of a shock to the system! For Sunday, highs will rebound into the low 30s, and Monday morning will be another chilly one across the state due to optimal conditions for radiational cooling Sunday evening.
 

Here are forecast lows for Sunday morning on the GFS.
Picture
Monday-Thursday
 
Warm air advection begins on Monday, bringing temps back up to near normal with highs in the mid 40s. A warm front passes to our west Monday evening and brings in more clouds for Tuesday along with another quick trip into the 50s. Rain comes in on an approaching cold front Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning, as of now, it appears as if the core of this system passes well to our west and so rainfall will remain relatively light. Colder air comes in on the backside of the system and persists through the rest of the week before the next storm chance next weekend.
 
At this lead-time, guidance is trying to signal the development of some NAO blocking starting next weekend into the middle of March. We have seen quite a bit of long range blocking modeled this winter, and very little of it has verified, so I am somewhat skeptical of this suggestion, but the guidance has been consistent (and consistently bringing the blocking forward in time instead of always keeping it 10 days away), and we are now inside the 10 day period where larger scale pattern features can be forecast with some degree of skill. It’s too early to talk about any specific threats or dates, but the takeaway is that winter may not be over just yet if the modeled blocking were to verify.
 
The Dailies
 
Saturday: Partly sunny and cold, with highs in the low to mid 20s.
Sunday: Partly sunny, with highs in the low to mid 30s.
Monday: Clouds building throughout the day. Highs in the mid 40s.
Tuesday: A chance of showers, otherwise, mostly cloudy, with highs in the mid 50s. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Wednesday: A slight chance of showers, otherwise, partly cloudy, with highs in the mid 50s. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Thursday: Mostly sunny, with highs in the mid 40s.
 
Have a great weekend and thank you for reading SCW!
-SA
Comments

    Archives

    July 2022
    June 2022
    May 2022
    April 2022
    March 2022
    February 2022
    January 2022
    December 2021
    November 2021
    October 2021
    September 2021
    August 2021
    July 2021
    June 2021
    May 2021
    April 2021
    March 2021
    February 2021
    January 2021
    December 2020
    November 2020
    October 2020
    September 2020
    August 2020
    July 2020
    June 2020
    May 2020
    April 2020
    March 2020
    February 2020
    January 2020
    December 2019
    November 2019
    October 2019
    September 2019
    August 2019
    July 2019
    June 2019
    May 2019
    April 2019
    March 2019
    February 2019
    January 2019
    December 2018
    November 2018
    October 2018
    September 2018
    August 2018
    July 2018
    June 2018
    May 2018
    April 2018
    March 2018
    February 2018
    January 2018
    December 2017
    November 2017
    October 2017
    September 2017
    August 2017
    July 2017
    June 2017
    May 2017
    April 2017
    March 2017
    February 2017
    January 2017
    December 2016
    November 2016
    October 2016
    September 2016
    August 2016
    July 2016
    June 2016
    May 2016
    April 2016
    March 2016
    February 2016
    January 2016
    December 2015
    November 2015
    October 2015
    September 2015
    August 2015
    June 2015
    May 2015
    April 2015
    March 2015
    February 2015
    January 2015
    December 2014
    November 2014
    October 2014

    Categories

    All
    Tropical Weather
    Winter Forecast

    Authors

    Southern Connecticut Weather is brought to you by Timothy Wrightington Jr. (TW), Spencer Aronstein(SA), Greg Petridis (GP), and Don Bell (DB).

Picture
Copyright Southern Connecticut Weather 2018, all rights reserved. 
For website related inquiries, email us at support@southernconnecticutweather.com

Privacy Policy/Terms of Service