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Forecasters Discussion for 4/1/2015

4/1/2015

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A very good afternoon to you from Southern Connecticut Weather!

It’s a clear and cold day outside, with temperatures generally within a few degrees on either side of the 40 degree mark across the state, and except for a few lingering clouds in the northern tier of the state, we’ve got clear skies and sunshine as the theme of the day. While it may warm a few more degrees over the course of the afternoon, the theme for the rest of the day will be below normal temperatures.

Thankfully, that changes tomorrow, as warmer air moves in and sends temperatures into the low to mid 50s across the state, which when combined with a mix of clouds and sun will feel positively spring like! There is a slim chance of a passing shower or sprinkle, especially in the afternoon and in northern areas, but for the most part, we should remain dry until after dark.

A weak frontal wave approaches from the NW on Thursday night into Friday morning and sets off a period of rain that looks to last right through Saturday. At first, we’ll see mainly scattered showers with isolated areas of heavier rain, but as the front passes through, a follow-up storm forms SW of us and moves NE, passing right over or just SE of the state and then out into the gulf of Maine, resulting in heavier rains from Friday afternoon into Saturday morning.  Rain should be out of the state by mid-day Saturday, and by Saturday late afternoon we should get a nice taste of sunshine as the day comes to a close.

Every cloud has a silver lining, and the silver lining here is that this system will bring with it much warmer temperatures, with highs on Friday pushing into the 60s! However, it will be short-lived as colder air comes in on the backside of the system, crashing our temperatures back down to around the freezing mark by Saturday evening. There is a slim chance of a bit of snow on the backside of the system, but as of now not expecting any meaningful accumulations outside of perhaps a dusting to a coating in the higher elevations.

Temperatures continue to be below normal on Sunday, and again the chance for some precipitation is possible as an overrunning system approaches from the west and passes nearly linearly across New England. On what latitude the system tracks, however, is unclear, with some of the guidance pushing it well north of us and bringing only clouds to the area, some bringing the brunt of the system to us as rain, and some sliding it south of us and allowing for snow on the northern fringe. As of now I’m leaning towards a miss or rain, but we’ll continue to keep an eye on it and will update as the details become clearer.

In the long range, generally below normal temperatures and unsettled weather continues to be the theme, with several possible chances for precipitation on the models from early next week on.  We’ll get into that in more detail as we draw closer, but until then, have a great rest of your day and thank you for reading SCW!

-SA
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    Southern Connecticut Weather is brought to you by Timothy Wrightington Jr. (TW), Spencer Aronstein(SA), Greg Petridis (GP), and Don Bell (DB).

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