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Forecasters Discussion for 4/6/2017

4/6/2017

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​Good evening to you from Southern Connecticut Weather!
 
We saw an action packed day across the state today, with heavy rain capped off by a round of strong thunderstorms moving across the state earlier this evening. There are flood watches in effect for the northern four counties where showers are ongoing, as well as a flood warning for the Connecticut River south of Hartford and a coastal flood statement for Fairfield and New Haven counties.
 
Tonight-Friday
For the rest of the evening, any lingering scattered showers should lift north within the next few hours, leading to another dreary day tomorrow. While precipitation will be limited to some scattered showers, low level clouds and fog for much of the day, along with dropping temperatures, will result in a classic dreary spring day in New England.  Highs should be in the upper 40s.
 
Saturday-Sunday
The good news is that the forecast improves significantly for the weekend. A cold front passes through tomorrow evening, and while it will take until near dark Saturday to clear out, we should see the cloud ceiling steadily lifting throughout Saturday. Highs will depend on how quickly we can get the sun in to warm us up, but will likely still be nippy, with readings in the upper 40s to lower 50s likely. We’ll warm up for the back half of the weekend as clear skies and a brief ridge of high pressure will allow for sunshine and highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s.
 
Monday-Wednesday
 
Another system approaches and then stalls to our northwest in the upper Midwest, allowing for a strong southeast ridge to pump up heights on the east coast and draw up some seriously warm air for early April. Here’s a look at that setup on the GFS.
Picture
​While I’m hesitant to believe modeled temps this far out, as it’s spring in New England and a backdoor front is always lurking, if everything goes right, we could see temps up into the upper 70s to maybe even 80 on Tuesday, with well above normal highs on Monday and Wednesday as well. For now, we’ll go with highs in the mid to upper 60s on Monday, mid 70s on Tuesday, and low to mid 60s on Wednesday, but those numbers have potential to go up, if everything remains as modeled, or quite a bit down if a backdoor front makes an appearance. As the front that was hung up to our west finally comes through on Wednesday, we could see some scattered showers, but as of right now, it does not look like a widespread heavy rain event. Following the front, cooler temps return for the end of the workweek.
 
Here’s the modeled high temperatures on the GGEM. Looks like June, not April!

Picture
The Dailies
 
Friday: A chance of showers, otherwise, mostly cloudy, with highs in the upper 40s. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Saturday: Mostly cloudy, then clearing, with highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s.
 
Sunday: Mostly sunny, with highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s.
 
Monday: Mostly sunny, with highs in the mid to upper 60s.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with highs in the mid 70s.
 
Wednesday: A chance of showers, otherwise, partly cloudy, with highs in the mid to upper 60s. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
 
Thursday: Partly sunny, with highs in the mid to upper 50s.
 
Have a great weekend and thanks for reading SCW!
-SA
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