Good evening to you from SCW!
Near-Term
Right now, we’ve got a line of thunderstorms out ahead of the approaching cold front that is currently hung up over central NY and moving east southeast. There are severe thunderstorms associated with this line, but models and observations suggest that any severe weather will remain to our north. Nonetheless, expect a line of thunderstorms to move through the state later tonight, bringing a quick dose of rain and perhaps a strong wind gust or two. Timing looks like around 10 PM for western areas of the state, lasting until past midnight in the eastern areas.
Here's a look at the current radar.
Near-Term
Right now, we’ve got a line of thunderstorms out ahead of the approaching cold front that is currently hung up over central NY and moving east southeast. There are severe thunderstorms associated with this line, but models and observations suggest that any severe weather will remain to our north. Nonetheless, expect a line of thunderstorms to move through the state later tonight, bringing a quick dose of rain and perhaps a strong wind gust or two. Timing looks like around 10 PM for western areas of the state, lasting until past midnight in the eastern areas.
Here's a look at the current radar.
Mid Range
Behind the initial front, we will still see warm air linger for a bit longer; while tomorrow will not be as warm as the past two days have been, we will still see highs up into the low 80s. A second, stronger front will pass through during the day tomorrow, finally bringing in more seasonable air and returning us to near normal temperatures. I don’t expect any significant storms with this front; a shower or two and possibly a rumble of thunder are likely, but no more than that.
Saturday will be the pick of the weekend as high pressure to our north keeps fair skies and dry weather in the forecast; highs will be right around 70 across the state, with the cooler readings found on the shoreline and the warmer readings found inland. For Sunday, we will see slightly cooler temps, mainly in the mid 60s, and clouds will start to build ahead of our next system for early next week.
Long Range
Generally cool and unsettled weather looks to return to close out the month of May, starting with a system for early next week. Guidance drapes a cold front across the region during the day on Monday, with rain likely as a result. Generally good agreement on this system, with half an inch to an inch of rain expected for most areas, mainly during the daytime.
We’ll get a break on Tuesday as high pressure briefly moves in ahead of the next shortwave that moves north into the lakes for midweek. This time, guidance hints at potential coastal redevelopment, which is shown well in this image from the GFS.
Behind the initial front, we will still see warm air linger for a bit longer; while tomorrow will not be as warm as the past two days have been, we will still see highs up into the low 80s. A second, stronger front will pass through during the day tomorrow, finally bringing in more seasonable air and returning us to near normal temperatures. I don’t expect any significant storms with this front; a shower or two and possibly a rumble of thunder are likely, but no more than that.
Saturday will be the pick of the weekend as high pressure to our north keeps fair skies and dry weather in the forecast; highs will be right around 70 across the state, with the cooler readings found on the shoreline and the warmer readings found inland. For Sunday, we will see slightly cooler temps, mainly in the mid 60s, and clouds will start to build ahead of our next system for early next week.
Long Range
Generally cool and unsettled weather looks to return to close out the month of May, starting with a system for early next week. Guidance drapes a cold front across the region during the day on Monday, with rain likely as a result. Generally good agreement on this system, with half an inch to an inch of rain expected for most areas, mainly during the daytime.
We’ll get a break on Tuesday as high pressure briefly moves in ahead of the next shortwave that moves north into the lakes for midweek. This time, guidance hints at potential coastal redevelopment, which is shown well in this image from the GFS.
You can see the dying primary in Canada, and at the same time, the developing secondary over Long Island. Should this occur, we could have another slow moving system on our hands which would bring more heavy rain to the area. At this lead time, we’ll just mention a chance of rain for now. Looking at your holiday weekend, while it’s too early to talk details, ensemble guidance has been persistent in a trough over the east in that period, which would generally suggest below normal temperatures and an active pattern. However, keep in mind that we’re still over a week out, so don’t go cancelling your beach plans quite yet . We’ll keep you updated on your holiday weekend forecast as we know more!
The Dailies
Friday: A slight chance of showers, otherwise, partly cloudy, with highs in the low to mid 80s.
Saturday: Mostly sunny, with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
Sunday: Partly cloudy, with highs in the mid to upper 60s.
Monday: Rain likely, otherwise, mostly cloudy, with highs in the low to mid 60s. Chance of rain is 60%.
Tuesday: Mostly cloudy, with highs in the low to mid 70s.
Wednesday: A chance of rain, otherwise, mostly cloudy, with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
Thursday: A chance of rain, otherwise, mostly cloudy, with highs in the mid to upper 60s.
Have a great weekend and thank you for reading SCW!
-SA
The Dailies
Friday: A slight chance of showers, otherwise, partly cloudy, with highs in the low to mid 80s.
Saturday: Mostly sunny, with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
Sunday: Partly cloudy, with highs in the mid to upper 60s.
Monday: Rain likely, otherwise, mostly cloudy, with highs in the low to mid 60s. Chance of rain is 60%.
Tuesday: Mostly cloudy, with highs in the low to mid 70s.
Wednesday: A chance of rain, otherwise, mostly cloudy, with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
Thursday: A chance of rain, otherwise, mostly cloudy, with highs in the mid to upper 60s.
Have a great weekend and thank you for reading SCW!
-SA
