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Forecasters Discussion for 5/7/16

5/7/2016

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Rain, rain go away! It has been quite a period of cloudy, cool, and rainy conditions. This weekend promises more of the same, but believe it or not, we will be gradually improving as we head into next week. Let’s dive in. 

Today
Saturday has started out like so many other days, with rain. Although it isn’t raining across the state, in the places where the rain is falling, it’s not pretty. 

Picture
Radar image of rain moving across the state from 7-10 am. ​

All this muck is thanks to a trough and upper level low that is cutoff, making it difficult for this weather to clear out quickly. 
Picture
Morning loop of the region. Notice that in some places we’re seeing clouds thin. There may be a window for a little sun today in spots. ​

With rain falling across the state this morning, I think many of us, especially in the southern four counties, have a good chance of seeing rain during the next few hours. The high-res models are not optimistic about today, with them showing rain showers through much of the afternoon. Some of these may be convective, so be prepared for heavier rain in spots. I think drier mid level air does make it to the region this afternoon though, so I think overall the chances of showers will diminish during the afternoon hours, probably after 3pm.
Picture
Picture
High resolution models covering this afternoon and evening. 

Mother’s Day
Tomorrow looks like a better day overall, but even Sunday will have shower chances as a cold front moves through tomorrow morning and afternoon. As a result, tomorrow morning and early afternoon looks wet, but after the cold front passes around 2-3pm we switch to northwest flow and things begin to clear. That flow will also bring breezy conditions, but windy is better than rainy in my book. Tomorrow afternoon should be fine for activities with mom!

The cold front is a good thing, as it sets us up for a period of nicer weather, finally. 
Monday
With the cold front passed, things have cleared out and we finally see a nice day! Things may still be a bit breezy, but who cares with abundant sunshine and warming temps! Monday will feel great to many. 


Tuesday/Wednesday
Previously, Tuesday and Wednesday looked wet, as another cutoff low positioned itself near our region. Guidance has trended nicer and drier as the cutoff stays away. If that is the case, expect two more nice days with temperatures near to above normal. Hopefully we produce here!


Thursday
Right now, Thursday looks nice as well. In fact, it may be the warmest day of the week, as high pressure moves offshore and gives us even warmer temperatures. However, a cold front will be lurking, so this is something we’ll need to watch. 


Friday
Unfortunately, it doesn’t look like we escape the unsettled weather forever. By Friday, guidance suggests that the cold front that spares us Thursday makes its way through on Friday. Friday afternoon in particular looks wet. 


The dailies
Saturday: Rain early with showers possible throughout the day as we slowly dry out. Highs in the upper 50s to low 60s. Chance of rain 70% before noon and 40% afterward. 

Sunday: Rain showers early as a cold front passes. Gradual clearing during the afternoon with breezy conditions. Highs in the mid to upper 60s. Chance of rain early 70%.

Monday:
Sunny and breezy. Highs in the mid to upper 60s. 


Tuesday:
Sunny and seasonably warm. Highs in the low to mid 70s. 


Wednesday:
Sunny and seasonably warm. Highs in the low to mid 70s.


Thursday:
Partly cloudy with a slight chance of showers. Highs in the upper 70s. Chance of rain 20%.


​Friday:
Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the low to mid 70s. 

Thanks and have a great weekend!

​-DB

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    Southern Connecticut Weather is brought to you by Timothy Wrightington Jr. (TW), Spencer Aronstein(SA), Greg Petridis (GP), and Don Bell (DB).

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