Good afternoon to you from Southern Connecticut Weather!
We’ve got quite a few showers across the state today, with the southeastern corner of the state consistently seeing the heaviest rain throughout the day so far as a train of cells moves north off the water. Showers will continue for the next few hours before exiting to the north and east. A second batch approaches from the mid atlantic for late tonight into early tomorrow morning. Here's an animation of the progression from the HRRR.
We’ve got quite a few showers across the state today, with the southeastern corner of the state consistently seeing the heaviest rain throughout the day so far as a train of cells moves north off the water. Showers will continue for the next few hours before exiting to the north and east. A second batch approaches from the mid atlantic for late tonight into early tomorrow morning. Here's an animation of the progression from the HRRR.
Unfortunately, showers and clouds look to be the prevailing theme of the forecast right through the weekend. A warm front will lift through the area tomorrow morning, bringing warmer temperatures and higher humidity, but even once the front has passed the chance for a shower or thunderstorm is still present due to the very moist airmass that will be in place. Sunday will have a better chance of staying dry, but will still be warm and muggy, with highs making it into the lower 80s and dewpoints into the lower 70s. While the temperature will be quite a bit cooler than the heatwave earlier this week where we saw mid 90s in most locations, it will likely feel just as oppressive outside due to the high humidity.
A cold front then approaches for Monday. Guidance differs on the timing of the front, but I will lean towards a later arrival, as it is common for cold fronts to get “hung up” as they are travelling across central NY towards our area. Given the moisture in the airmass, the energy associated with the front should be sufficient to spark a line of showers and thunderstorms as it moves through Monday evening or overnight. It’s a bit far out to start looking the details for severe weather, but the SPC has highlighted our area to be at risk for severe weather on Monday. We’ll keep a close eye on it and keep you informed!
Here's the forecast humidity for Monday(the warmest day) and a very long-range simulated radar image for Monday night, both from the NAM. This is to illustrate the potential for strong storms and not to provide any sort of guidance to locations - it's much too far out for that!
A cold front then approaches for Monday. Guidance differs on the timing of the front, but I will lean towards a later arrival, as it is common for cold fronts to get “hung up” as they are travelling across central NY towards our area. Given the moisture in the airmass, the energy associated with the front should be sufficient to spark a line of showers and thunderstorms as it moves through Monday evening or overnight. It’s a bit far out to start looking the details for severe weather, but the SPC has highlighted our area to be at risk for severe weather on Monday. We’ll keep a close eye on it and keep you informed!
Here's the forecast humidity for Monday(the warmest day) and a very long-range simulated radar image for Monday night, both from the NAM. This is to illustrate the potential for strong storms and not to provide any sort of guidance to locations - it's much too far out for that!
For the rest of the week, temperatures will remain near or slightly above normal, with highs generally a few degrees on either side of 80. However, the passage of the front Monday evening should bring steadily decreasing humidity throughout the week, leading to pleasant, early summerlike conditions by the middle of the week. As is typical in the summertime, there will be some showers and possibly a thunderstorm or two around, most notably on Wednesday, but any precipitation should be scattered and relatively brief. Overall, it looks like summer has arrived and the forecast looks like summer as well!
The Dailies
Saturday: A chance of showers, otherwise, mostly cloudy, with highs in the mid to upper 70s. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Sunday: A slight chance of showers, otherwise, mostly cloudy, with highs in the low to mid 80s. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Monday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening, otherwise, mostly cloudy, with highs in the low to mid 80s. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Tuesday: A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms, otherwise, slowly clearing, with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Wednesday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms, otherwise, partly sunny, with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Thursday: Partly sunny, with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s.
Have a great weekend and thanks for reading SCW!
-SA
The Dailies
Saturday: A chance of showers, otherwise, mostly cloudy, with highs in the mid to upper 70s. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Sunday: A slight chance of showers, otherwise, mostly cloudy, with highs in the low to mid 80s. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Monday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening, otherwise, mostly cloudy, with highs in the low to mid 80s. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Tuesday: A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms, otherwise, slowly clearing, with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Wednesday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms, otherwise, partly sunny, with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Thursday: Partly sunny, with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s.
Have a great weekend and thanks for reading SCW!
-SA
