The past week has had some hints of fall-like weather, featuring crisp mornings, low humidity, and generally seasonable conditions, making for a refreshing break from the heat and humidity of the week before. However, summer has decided that it’s not ready to fade away just yet, and that makes this forecast a very hot and sticky one.
A strong upper level ridge looks to develop over the east over the next several days and into next week, resulting in generally calm weather and hot, humid conditions as a result of warm air from the south spreading north along the ridge. As there is no shortwave in the pipeline to release the moisture that builds up with heat, expect humidity to be rather high as well over the next week, with the only possible relief being a slim chance of some convection and thunderstorms on Thursday if some instability is present, which is suggested in the form of a cutoff shortwave on some guidance. I have painted a slight chance of thunderstorms into the forecast for Thursday to account for that. Given the heat and humidity, convection is certainly possible any day next week, but not enough confidence(<20%) to introduce it into the forecast.
Here’s an image from the GFS model of the upper air longwave pattern. Notice the trough in the west, promoting cooler air and storminess, and the large ridge in the east, which allows warmer air to come up from the south and flood us with heat and humidity. The other image is a map of temperature departures for Wednesday, showing cooler air in the west where the trough can be found and warmer air across the rest of the country where the ridge is prevailing.
Here's a look at Erika Thursday evening on the Canadian(left) and GFS models.
Saturday: Sunny, with highs in the low to mid 80s.
Sunday: Sunny, with highs in the upper 80s.
Monday: Sunny, with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s.
Tuesday: Sunny, with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s.
Wednesday: Sunny, with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s.
Thursday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms, otherwise, partly sunny, with highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s.(Note: If the CMC were to be correct and Erika were to come up the coast, temps would be much cooler). Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Friday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms, especially in the morning hours, otherwise, partly sunny, with highs in the mid 80s.
Have a great weekend, and thanks for reading Southern Connecticut Weather!