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Forecasters Discussion for 8/31/2018

8/31/2018

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Good evening from SCW!

After the heat and humidity the past several days, today has been a real treat, with comfortable temperatures and low humidity. In the short term, this trend will continue, but by the middle of the forecast period, heat and humidity is back once again. The calendar may say we’re at the end of meteorological summer, but the forecast certainly does not.
 
Saturday-Monday
 
Still looks like a dry forecast for the long weekend, with only a slight chance of a sprinkle or widely scattered shower. Highs should increase each day, with temps in the upper 70s to lower 80s tomorrow, the mid 80s on Sunday, and the upper 80s to lower 90s on Monday. Mostly sunny skies should be expected each day, although morning clouds and fog are possible each morning as well.

Here's a look at forecast highs on the GFS for Saturday, Sunday, and Monday.
Tuesday-Friday
 
As the surface high pressure currently over the area moves east, this allows the ridge to strengthen again and send another pulse of tropical heat and humidity into the region. Expect the peak of the heat to be on Tuesday, with highs well into the 90s and dewpoints in the 70s, but hot (upper 80s/lower 90s) weather is expected through the end of the week, when a cold front approaches from the west and brings some much-appreciated relief for next weekend. Some timing differences between the Euro and the GFS on when this comes in; the GFS brings it through by Thursday evening while the Euro holds off until mid-day Friday and is generally weaker overall.
 
With that cold front, we will likely see shower and thunderstorm activity as is typical, but far too early to speculate on any potential for severe weather. Otherwise, there is a chance of some storms on Tuesday and Wednesday from a backdoor front (also why we will see temps drop a bit for the rest of the week) but no significant precipitation is expected.
 
The Dailies
 
Saturday: Partly sunny, with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s.
Sunday: A slight chance of showers, otherwise, mostly sunny, with highs in the mid 80s. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Monday: A slight chance of showers, otherwise, partly sunny, with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Tuesday: A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms, otherwise, partly sunny, with highs in the low to mid 90s. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Wednesday: A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms, otherwise, partly sunny, with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Thursday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms, otherwise, partly cloudy, with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Friday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms, otherwise, partly sunny, with highs in the low to mid 80s. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
 
Have a great long weekend and thank you for reading SCW!
-SA
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