Good evening to you from Southern Connecticut Weather!
The above normal pattern that has been locked in for the last several weeks gave way to more seasonable temperatures over the last few days, providing a first real taste of fall to the state. In general, the quiet and seasonable pattern looks to continue through the forecast period, with the only chance of precipitation being at the end of the period as a possible cutoff low makes it's way up the coast early next week.
In general, the pattern for the week appears extremely stable, with a strong high pressure placed to our north and providing for seasonable, dry conditions across the state. The warmest day of the period will be tomorrow, as clouds dissipate and temperatures warm into the mid 70s across most of the state, with low 70s on the immediate shoreline. Thursday will be a near repeat of tomorrow, and then Friday and Saturday we will see onshore flow begin to increase, leading to a stronger cloud cover and cooler temperatures, with highs topping out a degree or two on either side of the 70 mark, right around normal to slightly below normal for the period.
The only chance of precipitation in the forecast comes late in the weekend into early next week, as modeling shows a cutoff low coming up the coast. The main question which will determine if it impacts our area will be how far north the low can make it before it is pushed out to sea by the strong high, and as is usual at this range, guidance is all over the map as to the possible placement of the high and that boundary. For now, will leave a chance of precipitation in the forecast from Sunday night into early next week and will reassess later in the week. Temps will depend on the placement of the system, but close to seasonal levels are expected.
A look at the ensemble mean(GEFS) of the GFS model, showing that while the greatest concentration of precipitation on the individual members is to our SE, there is still substantial spread in the modeling and as such we should continue to keep an eye on this system.
The above normal pattern that has been locked in for the last several weeks gave way to more seasonable temperatures over the last few days, providing a first real taste of fall to the state. In general, the quiet and seasonable pattern looks to continue through the forecast period, with the only chance of precipitation being at the end of the period as a possible cutoff low makes it's way up the coast early next week.
In general, the pattern for the week appears extremely stable, with a strong high pressure placed to our north and providing for seasonable, dry conditions across the state. The warmest day of the period will be tomorrow, as clouds dissipate and temperatures warm into the mid 70s across most of the state, with low 70s on the immediate shoreline. Thursday will be a near repeat of tomorrow, and then Friday and Saturday we will see onshore flow begin to increase, leading to a stronger cloud cover and cooler temperatures, with highs topping out a degree or two on either side of the 70 mark, right around normal to slightly below normal for the period.
The only chance of precipitation in the forecast comes late in the weekend into early next week, as modeling shows a cutoff low coming up the coast. The main question which will determine if it impacts our area will be how far north the low can make it before it is pushed out to sea by the strong high, and as is usual at this range, guidance is all over the map as to the possible placement of the high and that boundary. For now, will leave a chance of precipitation in the forecast from Sunday night into early next week and will reassess later in the week. Temps will depend on the placement of the system, but close to seasonal levels are expected.
A look at the ensemble mean(GEFS) of the GFS model, showing that while the greatest concentration of precipitation on the individual members is to our SE, there is still substantial spread in the modeling and as such we should continue to keep an eye on this system.
Here's a look at the dailies:
Wednesday: Sunny, with highs in the low 70s on the shoreline and mid 70s elsewhere.
Thursday: Partly cloudy, with highs in the low 70s on the shoreline to mid 70s elsewhere.
Friday: Partly cloudy, with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
Saturday: Mostly sunny, with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
Sunday: Partly cloudy, with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
Sunday: Partly cloudy, with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
Monday: A chance of rain, otherwise, partly cloudy, with highs in the low to mid 70s. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Tuesday: A chance of rain, otherwise, partly cloudy, with highs in the low to mid 70s. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Thanks for reading SCW! Next update coming Thursday-Friday.
-Spencer
Wednesday: Sunny, with highs in the low 70s on the shoreline and mid 70s elsewhere.
Thursday: Partly cloudy, with highs in the low 70s on the shoreline to mid 70s elsewhere.
Friday: Partly cloudy, with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
Saturday: Mostly sunny, with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
Sunday: Partly cloudy, with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
Sunday: Partly cloudy, with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
Monday: A chance of rain, otherwise, partly cloudy, with highs in the low to mid 70s. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Tuesday: A chance of rain, otherwise, partly cloudy, with highs in the low to mid 70s. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Thanks for reading SCW! Next update coming Thursday-Friday.
-Spencer
