It's been a pretty quiet period over the last few weeks here in Connecticut weather. We've seen consistently above normal temperatures leading to one of the warmest September's on record, but other then that, not much to report, as precipitation has been conspicuously absent, temperatures have been steady, and conditions have been clear, making for a spectacular stretch of late summer and early fall weather punctuated by a fantastic eclipse of the harvest moon last night. However, it looks like that quiet period is about to come to an end, with a substantial rainfall event forecast in the short term, a possible tropical system in the mid-range, and a cooler and more active look to the pattern overall as we enter October.
First, let's tackle the mid-week event. A low in Quebec, and it's associated cold front, track slowly east throughout the day tomorrow, bringing a chance of showers and thunderstorms into the forecast from the early afternoon hours onward. As it reaches our area Tuesday night, it slows, and modeling shows a connection with a surface low tracking NE from the Appalachians. This low has an impressive connection to gulf moisture(Reminiscent of the look of some of our bigger snowmakers!), and, combined with impressive Precipitable Water values, will result in widespread coverage of showers and thunderstorms across the state from Tuesday night through Wednesday and into Thursday, when coverage will diminish as the front eventually clears the area and shifts offshore, allowing for more of a widespread light rain to develop instead of rain of a showery nature with varying intensities.
Modeling is consistent in showing a "screw zone" developing between two areas of enhanced precipitation, but at this point, it's all over the map exactly where that will be. Regardless, all of the state looks to be in for a good soaking starting tomorrow afternoon, the only question being just how much of a soaking will it be in some areas.
Here's a look at total rain through Thursday morning on the various guidance.
First, let's tackle the mid-week event. A low in Quebec, and it's associated cold front, track slowly east throughout the day tomorrow, bringing a chance of showers and thunderstorms into the forecast from the early afternoon hours onward. As it reaches our area Tuesday night, it slows, and modeling shows a connection with a surface low tracking NE from the Appalachians. This low has an impressive connection to gulf moisture(Reminiscent of the look of some of our bigger snowmakers!), and, combined with impressive Precipitable Water values, will result in widespread coverage of showers and thunderstorms across the state from Tuesday night through Wednesday and into Thursday, when coverage will diminish as the front eventually clears the area and shifts offshore, allowing for more of a widespread light rain to develop instead of rain of a showery nature with varying intensities.
Modeling is consistent in showing a "screw zone" developing between two areas of enhanced precipitation, but at this point, it's all over the map exactly where that will be. Regardless, all of the state looks to be in for a good soaking starting tomorrow afternoon, the only question being just how much of a soaking will it be in some areas.
Here's a look at total rain through Thursday morning on the various guidance.
As you can see, all show several inches of rain across the state by mid-day Thursday. Thankfully, due to the below normal precipitation across the region recently, river flooding will likely not be an issue, but urban and small-stream flooding could be an issue for the areas that get under the heaviest downpours.
This system moves out to sea Thursday, but stalls, continuing to provide scattered showers in the forecast for Thursday, especially in further eastern areas, before all eyes shift to the next system for Friday into the weekend...
This system moves out to sea Thursday, but stalls, continuing to provide scattered showers in the forecast for Thursday, especially in further eastern areas, before all eyes shift to the next system for Friday into the weekend...
The image above is the National Hurricane Center(A division of the NWS)'s forecast map for Tropical Storm Joaquin, a developing cyclone in the Atlantic, currently east of the Bahamas and moving slowly southwest. Modeling is in very strong agreement that this storm will turn and come up the coast, but what it does once it takes the right turn is very much up in the air on the various guidance. Solutions range from a landfall in the southern Mid-Atlantic and the heaviest rains focused in the western mid-atlantic and western northeast, to a coastal landfall on the New Jersey coastline or south of Long Island, which would bring the heaviest winds and rain to our area. A followup coastal low then comes up the coast later in the weekend, bringing more soaking rains to the area. Given the lead time and uncertainties in the modeling, trying to pin any details down at this range would be very difficult, but as of now, rain is likely from Friday through the weekend, and, depending on the track of the storm, strong winds are also a possibility, although I'm not sure I'd call them likely yet. We will continue to watch the modeling and observations, as well as the guidance from NHC, and will update again on Wednesday with more information on the track of this system and it's impacts to the state, but for now, expect a washout of a weekend with potentially heavy rains and high winds.
Here is a smattering of the various model guidance for the storm.
GGEM, showing a storm moving almost due north up the Atlantic, brushing the New England coastline, and then plowing into Canada. Heaviest rains move from interior NY and PA into New England.
Here is a smattering of the various model guidance for the storm.
GGEM, showing a storm moving almost due north up the Atlantic, brushing the New England coastline, and then plowing into Canada. Heaviest rains move from interior NY and PA into New England.
GFS, plowing the system onto the NJ coastline and then Long Island, with a secondary forming over the state and the Hudson Valley.
EURO: Showing the system making landfall in NC and then running up the coastline, passing directly over us in a much weaker form.
Here's a look at the total precipitation forecast across the state by the 3 major global models over the next week.
These maps are consistent in showing 5"+ of rain across the entire state over the next week, with most if not all of the state seeing 8"-10"+ of rain(In case you were wondering, that would be 80-100" of snow in the winter!) if these models are correct. While I'm not sure I buy widespread totals that high, the fact of the matter is that we are about to get quite a lot of rain, and the net result could be hydrological impacts, especially in areas with poor drainage and that are prone to flooding. Depending on the track of Joaquin, strong winds are possible as well this weekend, which would exacerbate any hydrological issues and could lead to issues in coastal areas when combined with the astrologically high tides from the Supermoon as well as the rainfall from earlier in the week. Thankfully, we've been rather dry recently, which should keep issues down somewhat, but it's still something to be aware of. We'll know more about potential impacts as we nail down the path of Joaquin later in the week.
We'll have much more on the potential weekend system on Wednesday, but for now, be aware that a significant storm is possible.
Temperatures will be above normal tomorrow, then below normal throughout the rest of the period.
Here are the dailies:
Tuesday: A chance of showers in the afternoon, otherwise, mostly cloudy, with highs in the mid 70s. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Wednesday: Widespread showers and thunderstorms, some of which could be heavy. Highs in the upper 60s. Chance of rain is 95%.
Thursday: Showers and thunderstorms, otherwise, cloudy, with highs in the low 60s. Chance of rain is 70%.
Friday: A chance of rain, which could be heavy at times, otherwise, cloudy, with strong winds possible, and highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Chance of rain is 60%.
Saturday: A chance of rain, which could be heavy at times, otherwise, cloudy, with strong winds possible, and highs in the lower 60s. Chance of rain is 60%.
Sunday: A chance of rain, which could be heavy at times, otherwise, cloudy, with strong winds possible, and highs in the lower 60s. Chance of rain is 60%.
Stay dry, stay safe(Remember: Turn around, don't drown!), and stay tuned to Southern Connecticut Weather for Connecticut's number one weather coverage of this and every meteorological event! Next update coming Wednesday, or sooner if needed. Thanks for reading!
-SA
We'll have much more on the potential weekend system on Wednesday, but for now, be aware that a significant storm is possible.
Temperatures will be above normal tomorrow, then below normal throughout the rest of the period.
Here are the dailies:
Tuesday: A chance of showers in the afternoon, otherwise, mostly cloudy, with highs in the mid 70s. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Wednesday: Widespread showers and thunderstorms, some of which could be heavy. Highs in the upper 60s. Chance of rain is 95%.
Thursday: Showers and thunderstorms, otherwise, cloudy, with highs in the low 60s. Chance of rain is 70%.
Friday: A chance of rain, which could be heavy at times, otherwise, cloudy, with strong winds possible, and highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Chance of rain is 60%.
Saturday: A chance of rain, which could be heavy at times, otherwise, cloudy, with strong winds possible, and highs in the lower 60s. Chance of rain is 60%.
Sunday: A chance of rain, which could be heavy at times, otherwise, cloudy, with strong winds possible, and highs in the lower 60s. Chance of rain is 60%.
Stay dry, stay safe(Remember: Turn around, don't drown!), and stay tuned to Southern Connecticut Weather for Connecticut's number one weather coverage of this and every meteorological event! Next update coming Wednesday, or sooner if needed. Thanks for reading!
-SA
