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Forecasters Discussion for March 11th, 2015

3/11/2015

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Good evening from Southern Connecticut Weather!

After the rain and fog of last night, the clouds cleared out this morning, sunny skies and mild temperatures were experienced statewide. Under mostly sunny skies, highs rose through the 50s and approached 60 in many places, a welcoming sign that spring is finally near. Currently across the state we have temperatures ranging from the upper 30s in northwest Connecticut to mid 40s at the shore. Under clear skies and, and a cold front approaching from the west, temperatures will drop across the state into the mid to upper 20s.

For the day on Thursday, we will experience windy conditions in association with the aforementioned cold front. Highs for tomorrow will range solidly 10 degrees below where they stood today, so the mild temperatures will be short-lived. Upper 30s and low 40s look to be the top end of temperatures across the state tomorrow. For Thursday night, lighter winds and clear skies will facilitate a precipitous drop in temperatures, lows at the shore look to only make it into the low 20s, while inland sections will be experiencing mid to upper teens. On Friday, highs are expected to be even colder than they will be on Thursday, struggling to make it out of the 30s statewide, although it will be sunny and winds look to be light. In association with our next weather maker, winds will start to blow out of the south and temperatures will slowly rise through Friday night. Then precipitation begins to make it's way into the state late Friday night and early Saturday morning....
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I had mentioned last night that the state could see a little accumulating snow on the front side of the next storm, well it looks as if the storm will come in a little warmer and further north than I had previously thought. In shoreline sections, I expect little to no accumulation of snow, in fact, it might just be a quick burst of sleet at the onset of the storm and quickly change to rain as the surface through mid levels of the atmosphere will torch to above freezing quickly. North of the shoreline and I95, there could be a more prolonged period of snow and sleet with nothing more than a coating south of I84. North of i84, and west of I91 could pick up a quick inch or 2 of snow, but will also change to plain rain as we head toward sunrise on Saturday.

Precipitation in the form of a quick burst of sleet will first impact southwestern Connecticut just after midnight, and spread across the entire state by about 3 am. Most of the state will have changed to rain by 6 am with the only possibility of a lone hold-out being far northwest Connecticut, but even those places will change to rain. During the day on Saturday, we will have periods of rain and temperatures ranging from the upper 30s inland, to mid 40s at the shore. Southern sections of the state look to get the most rain, but by and large less than an inch. Still, it will inch us closer to seeing our grass again. Rain looks to taper off toward Saturday evening with cooler temperatures moving in on the backside.  As far as impacts from the storm, initial slippery roads caused by snow and sleet especially away from the shore look like they could be an issue through about dawn on Saturday, flooding could be an issue, with melting snow and falling rain, some of the more susceptible areas could start to flood, although the storm itself does not look to bring heavy flooding rains. As far as wind and coastal flooding impact, I do not see either being an issue, maybe some gusts over 25 mph in far southeastern Connecticut, but coastal flooding is not expected.
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As the storm pulls out later on Saturday, winds will begin to blow out of the northwest again promoting cooler temperatures. There is a possibility that rain changes back to snow in far northwestern Connecticut, but even then, no major accumulations are expected. Temperatures on Saturday night will again start to drop through the 30s. For Sunday, temperatures look to range from the upper 30s inland to low 40s at the shore, we are watching another weak disturbance to drop out of the Great Lakes region and bring some rain and snow showers to the state, in this instance, no major accumulations are expected. Temperatures drop back down into the 20s statewide for Sunday night under cloudy skies, with the possibility of more snow showers. Monday looks to be a warmer day with temperatures back into the mid 40s and partly cloudy skies, lows look to drop back into the 20s. Next Tuesday we are watching for another quick shot of snow and cooler temperatures, barely making it into the 40s statewide.

As far as Arctic blasts go, it looks as if we are done with going into the deep freeze, but that does not mean we are done with winter or winter storms by a long shot. Currently we are watching for a colder, stormier pattern to evolve after the 20th of the month. So it looks as though March comes in like a lion, and goes out like a....lion.
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Have a good rest of your night everyone, hope you enjoyed the pleasant conditions and temperatures today. As always, thank you for reading Southern Connecticut Weather!- Tim
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    Southern Connecticut Weather is brought to you by Timothy Wrightington Jr. (TW), Spencer Aronstein(SA), Greg Petridis (GP), and Don Bell (DB).

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