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Forecasters Discussion for March 15th 2015- Extended Forecast

3/15/2015

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Good evening from Southern Connecticut Weather!

After a day of light to moderate rain and raw conditions, the backside of the storm left some lingering showers and windy conditions. While temperatures themselves weren't too bad, upper 30s inland to 40s at the shore, gusty winds have created windchills in the 20s. Currently across the state, clouds are slowly clearing out with partly cloudy skies in western Connecticut while mostly cloudy skies rule in eastern Connecticut. Gradually clear skies will move in and temperatures will drop through the 30s at the shore, while mid 20 degree temperatures will be observed inland. Although clouds will begin to dissipate overnight, the winds will remain gusty, with temperatures falling so will the wind chills, some inland locations will feel like they are in the teens.

Looking ahead to Monday morning, winds will gradually die down, but there will be a stiff breeze at the bus stops tomorrow morning, so make sure to bundle up the kids. The gusty winds should become more manageable, along with the temperatures by the middle of the morning. Also clear, sunny conditions should be prevalent in the morning, so no worries about precipitation. As we head through the rest of your Monday, temperatures should really rebound, back into the low to mid 40s statewide, with sunshine and light winds, tomorrow should not be a bad day to be outside at all. Clear conditions look to continue through early tomorrow evening. Temperatures look to fall back only slightly into the upper 20s and lower 30s statewide. 
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The weather does look to be fairly quiet for the majority of the work week with a bump or two along the way (not surprising, considering we live in New England). After a brilliantly sunny day on Monday morning, afternoon into early evening, clouds begin to roll back in later on Monday night in advance of a weak disturbance moving into the region from Canada. This looks to be a very minor event that could set off some rain and snow showers, area to the north look to be the prime spot to see any precipitation. The disturbance will move east across New England and then into the Gulf of Maine where it will try to redevelop into something stronger. Most of the state looks to be spared any appreciable amounts of snow, with the exception of far northeastern Connecticut where the possibility of a coating to an inch of snow does exist. The entire system gets out of our hair rather quickly, basically the entire state will be precipitation free by dinner time on Tuesday. Skies clear out, and another reinforcing shot of cold air enters the state, temperatures plummet into the 20s at the shore, while teens could be experienced inland.

As mentioned before, the weather for this week does look rather quiet, but it will also be quite chilly, especially for this time of the year from later Tuesday through Friday. On Wednesday, it looks as if most of the state stays in the low 30s, with some of the cooler, elevated spots inland not even making it into the 30s. Sunny, clear conditions will be observed through the evening, so despite it being chilly it looks as if there won't be any winter weather to contend with. Skies do look to remain clear through Wednesday evening with temperatures dropping back through the teens statewide. Thursday looks like even more of the same, clear skies but slightly warmer temperatures, up into the mid 30s during the day and 20s at night.
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The end of the work week is actually the start of a period that we have been watching for a few weeks now. Models have been hinting at a short term pattern change back into a stormy, cool period for sometime. It looks as though a few oscillations such as NAO and PNA will become prime for a major storm to impact the area from March 18th through March 24th, it is looking probable that the state sees at least one more good thump of snow this winter. Currently we are watching a storm which could impact the area from Friday afternoon through Saturday.  At this point, models are favoring southern areas of the state for more snow as high pressure to the north and confluence look to keep the low pressure area very much south of the area. What this means for us is that there will be an abundance of cold air in place, but strong high pressure will keep the northern extent of the precipitation shield right around the Massachusetts border while bringing more snow to the shore. Right now there are many moving parts to this storm and it is much too soon to speculate on accumulations, track and the like, but it is looking more and more likely that the state will be experiencing wintry weather by the end of the week. 
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As we often do here at Southern Connecticut Weather, we try to look even further into the future for pattern shifts and changes. I'd like to tell you that I see an abrupt end to winter, and a grand entrance into spring. Well, I'm sorry to burst your bubble, but I see more chilly air on the horizon with chances of storms through the beginning of April ad beyond. Sure there will be some brief one or two day relaxations in the cool pattern, but returns to the below normal temperatures are always probable. There are a few bright spots though, it seems as though some teleconnections will become less favorable for major east coast storm development, and also it doesn't look as though we will have to deal with severe bouts of Arctic conditions again for the remainder of the winter.

As promised, the extended forecast for the work week ahead:

Monday:  Sunny, winds calming down, highs 42-47, lows: low to mid 30s, clouds increasing late
Tuesday: Rain and snow through the afternoon, late clearing, clear at night, highs: mid 40s lows: low 20s
Wednesday: Partly cloudy and cold, remaining clear through the evening, highs: mid 20s to low 30s, lows: mid teens to low 20s
Thursday: Sunny and slightly warmer, some clouds moving in at night, highs: mid to upper 30s, lows: low to mid 20s
Friday: *watching closely* Partly cloudy skies early, with clouds moving in during the afternoon and snow developing during the evening, highs: upper 30s  lows: upper 20s to low 30s
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Have a good night everyone, and thank you for reading. Stay tuned to Southern Connecticut Weather for all the latest in Connecticut weather!- Tim
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    Southern Connecticut Weather is brought to you by Timothy Wrightington Jr. (TW), Spencer Aronstein(SA), Greg Petridis (GP), and Don Bell (DB).

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