Happy fall from Southern Connecticut Weather!
GFS depiction of 850mb temperatures this morning. Are those below freezing 850 temps in northern New England! It's starting to feel like fall around here, with sunny skies and temperatures in the 50s across the state! A gorgeous day is on tap, with high pressure dominating and northernly flow. Temperatures will struggle to make it into the 60s in our colder spots, but most will see temperatures eventually climb into the mid to upper 60s. Get outside and enjoy it!
Visible satellite from this morning. Notice the fog developing and burning off this morning in the valleys out west!
When I was thinking of how my forecast would look the other day, I thought it would be another easy one, with only one rain event. However, things this morning look a little more complicated than before. I think this forecast has a little something for everyone—cool temps, sunny days, and rain chances. Let’s dive in.
Monday
Tomorrow looks like a carbon copy of today—with a colder start. I expect the cold spots in Connecticut to get down into the mid to upper 30s. Urban areas will even get to the low 40s. With temperatures like that, folks should be prepared for frost in our cold spots. A Frost Advisory will be in effect overnight in Litchfield County. I anticipate a widespread frost there and patchy frost elsewhere. Be prepared to protect your plants and gardens. Monday is great day, with high pressure remaining in control through the daylight hours. By evening however, clouds start to overspread the state, in advance of a cold front.
When I was thinking of how my forecast would look the other day, I thought it would be another easy one, with only one rain event. However, things this morning look a little more complicated than before. I think this forecast has a little something for everyone—cool temps, sunny days, and rain chances. Let’s dive in.
Monday
Tomorrow looks like a carbon copy of today—with a colder start. I expect the cold spots in Connecticut to get down into the mid to upper 30s. Urban areas will even get to the low 40s. With temperatures like that, folks should be prepared for frost in our cold spots. A Frost Advisory will be in effect overnight in Litchfield County. I anticipate a widespread frost there and patchy frost elsewhere. Be prepared to protect your plants and gardens. Monday is great day, with high pressure remaining in control through the daylight hours. By evening however, clouds start to overspread the state, in advance of a cold front.
Tuesday
Tuesday is our high confidence rainy day. Now, the guidance has been wobbly on how significant a rain event this is, but I think we see a decent event, with the cold front/attendant low tapping into some Atlantic moisture. Tuesday is an umbrella day, and while it may not always rain on Tuesday, rain that falls could be heavy at times. Right now, I am expecting a solid half inch to inch of rain across the state.
The guidance is a bit split on when the rain cuts off, but right now I lean toward a faster end, with showers exiting the region by late Tuesday night.
Tuesday is our high confidence rainy day. Now, the guidance has been wobbly on how significant a rain event this is, but I think we see a decent event, with the cold front/attendant low tapping into some Atlantic moisture. Tuesday is an umbrella day, and while it may not always rain on Tuesday, rain that falls could be heavy at times. Right now, I am expecting a solid half inch to inch of rain across the state.
The guidance is a bit split on when the rain cuts off, but right now I lean toward a faster end, with showers exiting the region by late Tuesday night.
06z GFS depiction from early Tuesday morning into early Wednesday.
The GFS shows a rainy Tuesday as the front pushes through, but the frontal passage goes far enough off shore to prevent lingering showers on Wednesday.
Wednesday/Thursday
Assuming that my forecast is right and the front is well offshore, Wednesday looks great as sunny skies and seasonable temperatures return. I am less confident than usual, because the guidance is in decent agreement that a cut-off low will likely develop. These lows are generally slow moving systems that meander as they get left behind by the overall flow that moves systems in and out of our region. Typical in spring, these can bring cloudy, cool, and rainy days. Here, I’m looking to see how close the low gets to us. If it is closer, expect a cloudy and potentially wet Wednesday/Thursday.
Right now, I think both days are ok. As I said before, Wednesday is probably great. Thursday looks a bit more cloudy with a greater potential for rain, but right now I think it’s mostly dry. Greg will have much more on this Tuesday.
Friday/Saturday
Right now, I lean toward a wet Friday, as an offshore low gets close enough to bring precipitation. This is a low confidence forecast, unfortunately, and it lasts into early Saturday, as the low could linger a bit. The weekend does look nice, as any low moves away early Saturday, but this is something to keep an eye on.
Wednesday/Thursday
Assuming that my forecast is right and the front is well offshore, Wednesday looks great as sunny skies and seasonable temperatures return. I am less confident than usual, because the guidance is in decent agreement that a cut-off low will likely develop. These lows are generally slow moving systems that meander as they get left behind by the overall flow that moves systems in and out of our region. Typical in spring, these can bring cloudy, cool, and rainy days. Here, I’m looking to see how close the low gets to us. If it is closer, expect a cloudy and potentially wet Wednesday/Thursday.
Right now, I think both days are ok. As I said before, Wednesday is probably great. Thursday looks a bit more cloudy with a greater potential for rain, but right now I think it’s mostly dry. Greg will have much more on this Tuesday.
Friday/Saturday
Right now, I lean toward a wet Friday, as an offshore low gets close enough to bring precipitation. This is a low confidence forecast, unfortunately, and it lasts into early Saturday, as the low could linger a bit. The weekend does look nice, as any low moves away early Saturday, but this is something to keep an eye on.
That same 06z GFS run showing the possibility of an area of low pressure bringing showers Thursday through very early Saturday. Not quite biting on it yet, but it is something to watch.
Foliage Update
How about a fall foliage update! Foliage is something I like tracking during autumn, and the season is off to a muted start due to the current drought. I’m not sure how good a season it will be, but at least we can track the color change. Thanks to The Foliage Network we can see the changes in color and leaf drop during the fall. Right now, there isn’t much change happening in Connecticut, but higher elevations in central/northern New England are already seeing some change. With warm days and cool nights this week, I expect a nice expansion of color change to happen by next week.
How about a fall foliage update! Foliage is something I like tracking during autumn, and the season is off to a muted start due to the current drought. I’m not sure how good a season it will be, but at least we can track the color change. Thanks to The Foliage Network we can see the changes in color and leaf drop during the fall. Right now, there isn’t much change happening in Connecticut, but higher elevations in central/northern New England are already seeing some change. With warm days and cool nights this week, I expect a nice expansion of color change to happen by next week.
Image courtesy of The Foliage Network. Follow them here!
The dailies
Today: As close to perfect as it gets. Sunny and seasonably cool with highs in the mid to upper 60s in much of the state. Low 60s in the hill towns. Lows in the mid 30s in cold spots to low 40s in urban areas. Widespread frost expected in Litchfield County. Patchy frost expected elsewhere.
Monday: Sunny and seasonably cool. Highs in the mid to upper 60s. Clouds developing late.
Tuesday: Rainy and breezy. Highs in the upper 60s to low 70s. Chance of rain 90%.
Wednesday: Slight chance of showers early, otherwise, sunny and dry. Highs in the upper 60s to low 70s. Chance of rain 10%.
Thursday: Partly to mostly cloudy with a chance of showers late. Highs in the upper 60s to low 70s. Chance of rain 20%.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain. Highs in the mid to upper 60s. Chance of rain 40%
Saturday: Mostly cloudy early with a slight chance of showers, sunny by afternoon. Highs in the upper 60s. Chance of rain 10%
Sunday: Sunny and dry. Highs in the mid to upper 60s.
Thank you for reading. Enjoy the last week of September!
-DB
The dailies
Today: As close to perfect as it gets. Sunny and seasonably cool with highs in the mid to upper 60s in much of the state. Low 60s in the hill towns. Lows in the mid 30s in cold spots to low 40s in urban areas. Widespread frost expected in Litchfield County. Patchy frost expected elsewhere.
Monday: Sunny and seasonably cool. Highs in the mid to upper 60s. Clouds developing late.
Tuesday: Rainy and breezy. Highs in the upper 60s to low 70s. Chance of rain 90%.
Wednesday: Slight chance of showers early, otherwise, sunny and dry. Highs in the upper 60s to low 70s. Chance of rain 10%.
Thursday: Partly to mostly cloudy with a chance of showers late. Highs in the upper 60s to low 70s. Chance of rain 20%.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain. Highs in the mid to upper 60s. Chance of rain 40%
Saturday: Mostly cloudy early with a slight chance of showers, sunny by afternoon. Highs in the upper 60s. Chance of rain 10%
Sunday: Sunny and dry. Highs in the mid to upper 60s.
Thank you for reading. Enjoy the last week of September!
-DB
