TA generally above normal temperature regime will set up for the next 2-3 weeks or so. But there will be breaks. There is a lot of cold air in Canada, and pieces of this will break off from time to time. But all in all, a warmer than normal temperature regime is in place. There will be some difficulty forecasting the position of the frontal boundar(ies) and the associated temperatures, as a result.
Currently: Low pressure along a frontal boundary is right over NYC, so the front has cleared the entire area. High pressure over Ontario will bring cooler and drier weather to the state for the next couple days.
Tonight: Will keep the forecast dry, since the front has already cleared the state. However, the front is not far away, and is not moving very quickly, so I don't expect skies to clear. For that reason, I do not expect much radiational cooling. Therefore, I'll go a couple degrees warmer than temperature guidance. Low temperatures should generally be within a couple degrees of 55 degrees.
Tomorrow: A beautiful autumnal day. Plenty of sun, and an onshore, but light, flow. Because the onshore flow is not strong and the sun should win out over the onshore flow, I'll go a degre or two warmer than guidance for tomorrow. Expect high temperatures around 70 degrees.
Tomorrow Night/Sat: We should be able to squeak out a pretty good day on Saturday. The same front that went through today will eventually approach as a warm front. However, any precipitation associated with this feature should hold off until later at night, so the day should turn out fine. However, clouds well ahead of any precipitation should get in here quite early in the day. Also, SSE flow should become a bit stronger. With the combination of more clouds and a stronger onshore flow, I'll go a degree or two lower than guidance for Saturday. High temperatures should be near, or maybe just above 70.
Long Term (Sun-Thu:) Sunday's forecast is not as clear cut as it appeared to be earlier. The warm front probably will not just blast through the state. Even so, most of the state should see precipitation end by around dawn. However, in eastern CT, roughly east of I 91 or so, isolated showers or even a thunderstorm are possible throughout the day on Sunday. As for temperatures, for now, we'll assume the front clears the entire state by early afternoon, so as to not really mess up and flip flop our forecast. Guidance temperatures are more or less accepted, but I may go just a degree higher, since gridded data is significantly higher. High temperatures should be around 80 degrees, but it is possible some sections in the I 91 corridor get a bit warmer than that.
The rest of the long term should be fairly quiet. Monday is the hot day of the long term. Later Monday night, a cold front will move through and bring a much cooler air mass into the region. However, there is not much forcing associated with that front, so for now, will continue with a dry forecast. A warm front approaches on Wednesday. Warm fronts tend to produce more precipitation in this region than cold fronts this time of year. So I'll add a slight chance for showers and areas of drizzle on Wednesday. As for temperatures, guidance looks very good through the period, so only very minor adjustments were made.
Speaking of temperatures, these are the temperatures I expect through the rest of the long term period.
Monday: Around 80, except cooler along the south coast.
Tuesday: low 70s
Wednesday: near 70, except a bit warmer in the I 91 corridor
Thursday: mid 70s, perhaps cooler in the NW hills.
Looking into the long range,. generally above to much above normal temperatures should persist during this period. The danger of a sustained truly warm pattern is the cold air over adjoining eastern Canada, and the associated potential for a back door front. There is also potential for high pressure to anchor NE of the area and produce more of an onshore flow than currently modeled. However, the upper air pattern certainly looks like a warm one heading into late September in Southern New England. There are some hints that the pattern may begin to make meaningful changes toward the end of the month or beginning of October, when bigger pieces of that Canadian air start breaking off and heading into our region.
Now, let's take a look graphically at a couple systems slated to affect the region this week. There really isn't all that much to show you right now, but we'll take a look at two warm fronts- one modeled to go through Sunday morning and the next one slated to go through some time on Wednesday. This map is valid very early Sunday morning and shows precipitation advancing into CT. There is a very weak low, verbatim, on the map just east of ACY. However, a low this weak can be a function of the computer algorithm and not real, since the "low" is actually higher pressure than mean SLP.
Currently: Low pressure along a frontal boundary is right over NYC, so the front has cleared the entire area. High pressure over Ontario will bring cooler and drier weather to the state for the next couple days.
Tonight: Will keep the forecast dry, since the front has already cleared the state. However, the front is not far away, and is not moving very quickly, so I don't expect skies to clear. For that reason, I do not expect much radiational cooling. Therefore, I'll go a couple degrees warmer than temperature guidance. Low temperatures should generally be within a couple degrees of 55 degrees.
Tomorrow: A beautiful autumnal day. Plenty of sun, and an onshore, but light, flow. Because the onshore flow is not strong and the sun should win out over the onshore flow, I'll go a degre or two warmer than guidance for tomorrow. Expect high temperatures around 70 degrees.
Tomorrow Night/Sat: We should be able to squeak out a pretty good day on Saturday. The same front that went through today will eventually approach as a warm front. However, any precipitation associated with this feature should hold off until later at night, so the day should turn out fine. However, clouds well ahead of any precipitation should get in here quite early in the day. Also, SSE flow should become a bit stronger. With the combination of more clouds and a stronger onshore flow, I'll go a degree or two lower than guidance for Saturday. High temperatures should be near, or maybe just above 70.
Long Term (Sun-Thu:) Sunday's forecast is not as clear cut as it appeared to be earlier. The warm front probably will not just blast through the state. Even so, most of the state should see precipitation end by around dawn. However, in eastern CT, roughly east of I 91 or so, isolated showers or even a thunderstorm are possible throughout the day on Sunday. As for temperatures, for now, we'll assume the front clears the entire state by early afternoon, so as to not really mess up and flip flop our forecast. Guidance temperatures are more or less accepted, but I may go just a degree higher, since gridded data is significantly higher. High temperatures should be around 80 degrees, but it is possible some sections in the I 91 corridor get a bit warmer than that.
The rest of the long term should be fairly quiet. Monday is the hot day of the long term. Later Monday night, a cold front will move through and bring a much cooler air mass into the region. However, there is not much forcing associated with that front, so for now, will continue with a dry forecast. A warm front approaches on Wednesday. Warm fronts tend to produce more precipitation in this region than cold fronts this time of year. So I'll add a slight chance for showers and areas of drizzle on Wednesday. As for temperatures, guidance looks very good through the period, so only very minor adjustments were made.
Speaking of temperatures, these are the temperatures I expect through the rest of the long term period.
Monday: Around 80, except cooler along the south coast.
Tuesday: low 70s
Wednesday: near 70, except a bit warmer in the I 91 corridor
Thursday: mid 70s, perhaps cooler in the NW hills.
Looking into the long range,. generally above to much above normal temperatures should persist during this period. The danger of a sustained truly warm pattern is the cold air over adjoining eastern Canada, and the associated potential for a back door front. There is also potential for high pressure to anchor NE of the area and produce more of an onshore flow than currently modeled. However, the upper air pattern certainly looks like a warm one heading into late September in Southern New England. There are some hints that the pattern may begin to make meaningful changes toward the end of the month or beginning of October, when bigger pieces of that Canadian air start breaking off and heading into our region.
Now, let's take a look graphically at a couple systems slated to affect the region this week. There really isn't all that much to show you right now, but we'll take a look at two warm fronts- one modeled to go through Sunday morning and the next one slated to go through some time on Wednesday. This map is valid very early Sunday morning and shows precipitation advancing into CT. There is a very weak low, verbatim, on the map just east of ACY. However, a low this weak can be a function of the computer algorithm and not real, since the "low" is actually higher pressure than mean SLP.
Next, let's look at the warm front slated to go through Wednesday. If you look at this map, a few sprinkles are noted over the NYC metro area Wednesday afternoon. With a warm front, precipitation can always be a bit heavier than that, so I added a slight chance of showers to the forecast.
