A generally hot pattern, with fairly frequent chances for storminess will occur for the next few weeks, as the overall upper air pattern is comprised of a large Bermuda type high and high heights across the Eastern US. There will be a brief (but very noticeable) break from the pattern on Friday.
First off, for tonight, clear skies will allow for good radiational cooling conditions, despite the hot temperatures today. Humidity levels were low today, and this is also conducive to temperatures falling quickly at night. On nights like this, there is also a large discrepancy between temperatures in warmer areas, such as the cities and near the coast, and cooler areas, such as the interior and sheltered valleys. Low temperatures will range from the low 60s to around 70.
Tomorrow will be very similar to today. High temperatures should be fairly uniform throughout the state. There isn't supposed to be a big sea breeze, but a weak sea breeze should keep temperatures in check at the coast, with a light flow. Highs should be around 90 statewide.
For tomorrow night and Thursday, heat and humidity will briefly increase, as the cold front that is currently over the Delmarva will by then be pushing into Connecticut. The "thermal" portion of the front probably never makes it north of the Long Island Sound, but the humidity will, so expect Thursday's temperatures to be similar to those of tomorrow, but with more humidity.
Longer Term: Thursday night, the boundary moves rapidly back southward. By Friday morning, this boundary should be over Virginia. Interestingly enough, in a very hot pattern, a coastal low will develop on this boundary. This low will stall the boundary, allowing it to slowly drift northward, and then eventually dissipate by Friday night. Because of all this, Friday should feature periods of rain, with imbedded thunderstorms. There could even be a period of very heavy rain. The timing has come into better agreement, with the GFS slowing down and coming more into line with other models. Therefore, it looks like the period of heaviest rain will be during the afternoon hours on Friday. That being said, if there is no sun on Friday, this would mean much cooler temperatures. For now, to be conservative, since the coastal low idea is not 100%, I'll call for high temperatures within a few degrees of 80. But if the coastal low pans out, these temperatures could be as much as 10 degrees too warm!
Another concern with Friday's system, if the strong coastal low pans out, could be flooding, especially across Southern areas of the state, where very heavy rain fell yesterday. However, due to uncertainty as to where the heaviest axis of rain will fall, and still some uncertainty as to whether or not there will even be a coastal low, confidence in widespread flooding is still fairly low for any location in the state.
The ironic thing is that by Friday night, the coastal low and frontal boundary will be washing away somewhere over the Atlantic Ocean. High pressure will build in, and the predominate Western Atlantic Ridge will be able to reassert itself again. However, temperatures will not be nearly as hot as what we've seen, since the origin of this air mass will be the Great Lakes, and not the Southern Plains. There will be very weak sea breezes each day. In general, high temperatures from Saturday through Tuesday will be in the 80-85 degree range statewide. There are no foreseeable precipitation chances during this period, for now.
Looking even further out, the same Western Atlantic Ridge with a connection to Texas reestablishes itself so that by next Wednesday temperatures and humidity will both be much higher again. Right now, the long range looks something like this: Another major heat wave August 3 to 7, followed by a cooler and stormy period August 8-11, and maybe another big heat wave thereafter.
Let's take a look at the GFS' perspective of the coastal low Friday afternoon. Other than that, there really isn't much to "talk about" graphically.
First off, for tonight, clear skies will allow for good radiational cooling conditions, despite the hot temperatures today. Humidity levels were low today, and this is also conducive to temperatures falling quickly at night. On nights like this, there is also a large discrepancy between temperatures in warmer areas, such as the cities and near the coast, and cooler areas, such as the interior and sheltered valleys. Low temperatures will range from the low 60s to around 70.
Tomorrow will be very similar to today. High temperatures should be fairly uniform throughout the state. There isn't supposed to be a big sea breeze, but a weak sea breeze should keep temperatures in check at the coast, with a light flow. Highs should be around 90 statewide.
For tomorrow night and Thursday, heat and humidity will briefly increase, as the cold front that is currently over the Delmarva will by then be pushing into Connecticut. The "thermal" portion of the front probably never makes it north of the Long Island Sound, but the humidity will, so expect Thursday's temperatures to be similar to those of tomorrow, but with more humidity.
Longer Term: Thursday night, the boundary moves rapidly back southward. By Friday morning, this boundary should be over Virginia. Interestingly enough, in a very hot pattern, a coastal low will develop on this boundary. This low will stall the boundary, allowing it to slowly drift northward, and then eventually dissipate by Friday night. Because of all this, Friday should feature periods of rain, with imbedded thunderstorms. There could even be a period of very heavy rain. The timing has come into better agreement, with the GFS slowing down and coming more into line with other models. Therefore, it looks like the period of heaviest rain will be during the afternoon hours on Friday. That being said, if there is no sun on Friday, this would mean much cooler temperatures. For now, to be conservative, since the coastal low idea is not 100%, I'll call for high temperatures within a few degrees of 80. But if the coastal low pans out, these temperatures could be as much as 10 degrees too warm!
Another concern with Friday's system, if the strong coastal low pans out, could be flooding, especially across Southern areas of the state, where very heavy rain fell yesterday. However, due to uncertainty as to where the heaviest axis of rain will fall, and still some uncertainty as to whether or not there will even be a coastal low, confidence in widespread flooding is still fairly low for any location in the state.
The ironic thing is that by Friday night, the coastal low and frontal boundary will be washing away somewhere over the Atlantic Ocean. High pressure will build in, and the predominate Western Atlantic Ridge will be able to reassert itself again. However, temperatures will not be nearly as hot as what we've seen, since the origin of this air mass will be the Great Lakes, and not the Southern Plains. There will be very weak sea breezes each day. In general, high temperatures from Saturday through Tuesday will be in the 80-85 degree range statewide. There are no foreseeable precipitation chances during this period, for now.
Looking even further out, the same Western Atlantic Ridge with a connection to Texas reestablishes itself so that by next Wednesday temperatures and humidity will both be much higher again. Right now, the long range looks something like this: Another major heat wave August 3 to 7, followed by a cooler and stormy period August 8-11, and maybe another big heat wave thereafter.
Let's take a look at the GFS' perspective of the coastal low Friday afternoon. Other than that, there really isn't much to "talk about" graphically.
In January, this would be a snowstorm, especially in the interior.... but anyway, there is a mature surface low on or just off the Delmarva. The heavy slug of rain you see on the map over PA and NJ is moving NE and will be in Connecticut a few hours later.
Anyway, that's all for now! Have a great rest of your week!
-GP!
Anyway, that's all for now! Have a great rest of your week!
-GP!
