As the calendar has turned into November, one more very warm (dare I say spring-like day) tomorrow, followed by a strong cold front will begin to ease our weather back into winter. The pattern is changing, as has been much heralded by myself and my cohorts. However, pattern changes don't happen overnight, and they begin in a "step down" fashion, wish we're beginning to see on our weather charts.
Currently: A bit of a mess, with weak low pressure, really just a sea breeze boundary, over Eastern New England, and warm high pressure over the Southeast. A strong cold front was extending from far Northern New England into the Great Lakes region.
For tonight, temperatures will not fall all that much, as strong warm air advection takes hold. Expect low temperatures to only be in the 50 to 55 degree range. Very little in the way of precipitation is expected tonight, except for maybe a brief sprinkle early over the NW Hills, with the warm frontal passage.
For tomorrow, the strong cold front will approach the area. As it does so, a line of showers will accompany it. Expect the precipitation to be centered around the afternoon hours. Now, there will be two types of rain across the state. Across the north, including the NW Hills, greater Hartford and the Northeast, expect a more stratiform, or steady rain. There, temperatures will be cooler. Further south, in the warmer air, expect more of a convective type of rain, with showers and thunderstorms. I don't really want to predict strong thunderstorms in November, but down here in the NYC Metro where I live, penny-sized hail occurred wit the last cold front. Upper level temperatures are cold, so that's not entirely out of the realm of possibility. Expect high temperatures generally in the 65 to 70 degree range.
Tomorrow night and Friday will feature more seasonable temperatures and gusty winds as cold air funnels into the region. Low temperatures tomorrow night will be generally in the 40s, with highs on Friday in the 55 to 60 degree range. Friday could also see winds gusting to 35 MPH.
Longer Term- the Weekend and Beyond: The rest of the forecast period should generally be devoid of any precipitation, with just seasonable, and occasionally changeable temperatures. Highs through the long term should generally be in the 50 to 55 degree range, with low temperatures in the 30 to 40 degree range, for the most part. The biggest exception could be Saturday morning, where many northern locales will be into the 20s and some mid 20s will be possible in the NW hills.
Long Range: The long range guidance has been highly variable from run to run regarding specifics of the pattern. This is to be expected, since computer models do not handle a changing pattern well, especially in a transition season. However, the ensemble guidance, which is generally a better predictor of long range weather, has been very consistent in showing a pattern that gradually becomes colder (not just as climatological normals drop), but relative to average, as well.
Most of the state is in a moderate to severe drought. Unfortunately, there isn't much currently appearing in the forecast to show a major drought busting rainfall event coming. At least as the temperature gets colder, evaporation and water usage drop. In other words, it's easier to handle a smaller amount of precipitation when the weather is cold than when it's hot.
Now, let's take a quick look at a graphic, representing the cold frontal passage slated to pass through tomorrow afternoon.
Currently: A bit of a mess, with weak low pressure, really just a sea breeze boundary, over Eastern New England, and warm high pressure over the Southeast. A strong cold front was extending from far Northern New England into the Great Lakes region.
For tonight, temperatures will not fall all that much, as strong warm air advection takes hold. Expect low temperatures to only be in the 50 to 55 degree range. Very little in the way of precipitation is expected tonight, except for maybe a brief sprinkle early over the NW Hills, with the warm frontal passage.
For tomorrow, the strong cold front will approach the area. As it does so, a line of showers will accompany it. Expect the precipitation to be centered around the afternoon hours. Now, there will be two types of rain across the state. Across the north, including the NW Hills, greater Hartford and the Northeast, expect a more stratiform, or steady rain. There, temperatures will be cooler. Further south, in the warmer air, expect more of a convective type of rain, with showers and thunderstorms. I don't really want to predict strong thunderstorms in November, but down here in the NYC Metro where I live, penny-sized hail occurred wit the last cold front. Upper level temperatures are cold, so that's not entirely out of the realm of possibility. Expect high temperatures generally in the 65 to 70 degree range.
Tomorrow night and Friday will feature more seasonable temperatures and gusty winds as cold air funnels into the region. Low temperatures tomorrow night will be generally in the 40s, with highs on Friday in the 55 to 60 degree range. Friday could also see winds gusting to 35 MPH.
Longer Term- the Weekend and Beyond: The rest of the forecast period should generally be devoid of any precipitation, with just seasonable, and occasionally changeable temperatures. Highs through the long term should generally be in the 50 to 55 degree range, with low temperatures in the 30 to 40 degree range, for the most part. The biggest exception could be Saturday morning, where many northern locales will be into the 20s and some mid 20s will be possible in the NW hills.
Long Range: The long range guidance has been highly variable from run to run regarding specifics of the pattern. This is to be expected, since computer models do not handle a changing pattern well, especially in a transition season. However, the ensemble guidance, which is generally a better predictor of long range weather, has been very consistent in showing a pattern that gradually becomes colder (not just as climatological normals drop), but relative to average, as well.
Most of the state is in a moderate to severe drought. Unfortunately, there isn't much currently appearing in the forecast to show a major drought busting rainfall event coming. At least as the temperature gets colder, evaporation and water usage drop. In other words, it's easier to handle a smaller amount of precipitation when the weather is cold than when it's hot.
Now, let's take a quick look at a graphic, representing the cold frontal passage slated to pass through tomorrow afternoon.
With low pressure passing right over Hartford along the cold front, the best chance for appreciable rainfall amounts appears to be over the NW hills, with the least chance over the SE Coast. That's all for now! Have a great rest of your week!
-GP!
-GP!
