Although I agree with GP that the patten doesn't look terribly active in the week ahead, things are timed just right to bring unsettled conditions. After a few days of quietly tracking, it's also time to talk about another area of interest in the Atlantic that could be close to home in a few days. Let's dive in.
It is a warm but decent start to the day. That haze you see in the sky? Thats more smoke from western wildfires that has reached the area. According to the National Weather Service however, most of that smoke is between 1,000-6,000 feet above the surface, so we are not expecting any significant air quality issues today. Today will be warm and slightly humid with highs in the 80s, but nothing terrible for outdoor activities. It'll feel like summer.
I'm highlighting today because later this afternoon will see increased thunderstorm chances, especially in northern CT. A cold front will be approaching, and before it arrives there should be some ingredients in place for isolated thunderstorm activity. Again, I don't see anything to suggest that plans this afternoon need to be changed, as most of the high resolution guidance doesn't bring anything to the state this afternoon, but it is worth just keeping an eye to the sky.
Overnight however (after midnight), we do expect there to be a greater chance of thunderstorms, some of which may be strong to severe, as the front pushes through the region. Strong winds would be the greatest hazard.
The start of the week actually looks pretty nice. We will see some gradual clearing on Monday as the front passes, and temperatures will be knocked down a bit, although still warmer than normal. Tuesday looks nice as well, with partly sunny skies and temperatures in the 70s. However, we should see increasing clouds and showers late as another weak disturbance comes in from the Midwest.
The odd thing about the pattern this week is that the rain chances look to be confined to the later evening and overnight hours, meaning that most of Wednesday looks good right now too. Wednesday does look warm and humid in advance of our next front however.
During the evening and overnight hours another line of showers and thunderstorms are likely to be nearby. In fact, the SPC has issued a Day 4 slight risk for parts of the region, including northern CT. We don't see that often around here, so that has my attention. Overall, it means that there's greater than usual confidence that some period between Wednesday night and Thursday morning could be active with thunderstorm activity, some of which would be strong to severe, in parts of the state.
It's nothing anyone should be fretting over right now, but something we will be keeping an eye on.
I think it is important to note that while I am talking about the tropics here, I am not declaring a SCW Period of Interest. This means that although we're watching an area of interest in the Atlantic more closely and talking about it, we do not have high confidence in a significant weather event. Let's talk about why.
The area highlighted near the US coast has a 50% chance of developing into a tropical depression in 5 days.
I have been quietly watching the guidance the last few days, and now there's enough confidence to start talking about it. There has been a subtle signal that a tropical wave and upper level low would interact off the coast of the Bahamas, and form an area of low pressure. The GFS has actually led the way in showing potential development, but has bounced around quite a bit on both track and eventual intensity. That's not uncommon as nothing has formed yet.
Essentially, a broad area of low pressure forms next week, and depending on which model you believe (you should believe none right now) the low tracks up the US coast before either moving inland or getting kicked out to sea.
Here's what you need to know right now: this is not a situation where anyone needs to panic or feel anxious. Unlike Henri and Ida, we don't see much of a strong signal with this area of disturbed weather right now. I do think a tropical system forms, but right now it looks weak. I do think it comes close to the region, but it's unclear how strong it is and if it ever actually comes over land.
We will be watching closely, and as things come into better focus, we will let you know. I know a lot of you are shell shocked by how active this season has been, but we've been talking about an active season for months. We're nowhere near done with hurricane season but that's ok. We're here to provide you with the information you need as we get the data. For now, the data says watch and wait.
As a result of this disturbance, the weekend looks unclear and unsettled. For now, we will just have chances of rain each day.
Monday: Decreasing clouds and partly sunny. Highs in the low 80s. Chance of rain late 20%.
Tuesday: Partly sunny with increasing clouds and showers late. Highs in the mid to upper 70s. Chance of rain showers 40%.
Wednesday: Partly sunny, warm, and humid, with increasing clouds. Showers and thunderstorms late. Highs in the low to mid 80s. Chance of rain 50%.
Thursday: Mostly cloudy with rain showers. Partial clearing possible late. Highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Chance of rain 50%.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. Highs in the mid to upper 70s. Chance of rain 40%.
Saturday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. Highs in the mid to upper 70s. Chance of rain 40%.
Sunday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. Highs in the mid to upper 70s. Chance of rain 30%.
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