Currently: Generally fair weather across the Eastern CONUS, dominated by high pressure currently over Southern VA. A weak trough is along the immediate coast, from DE to ME. However there is so little moisture in the atmosphere that this feature is unable to even generate sprinkles.
Tonight: We'll have opportunity to radiate a bit for about half the night, so I can see temps turning out a degree or two cooler than guidance. Cirrus clouds stream in later at night, effectively shutting off radiational cooling. Low temps should be 55-60- maybe a degree or two warmer in the cities.
Tomorrow: Aside from a slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm in the NW Hills most of the day should be dry. Thunderstorm coverage could increase everywhere late tomorrow night, but not during the day. Humidity increases. Guidance temperatures of around 80 look reasonable, maybe low 80s in the CT Valley.
Tomorrow Night/Fri: There could be two rounds of thunderstorms that affect the state during this period. The first, centered on late tomorrow night and early Friday morning, will mostly affect Southern CT, with the second, centered on Friday afternoon, mostly affecting Northern CT. Temperatures should be close to guidance, generally 80 along the immediate SE coast to 85-87 in the CT valley on Friday.
Long Term: (the weekend and beyond): For Saturday, once again, it appears there could be two rounds of thunderstorms- the first, early in the morning, which would probably affect the entire state. The second round, centered on the afternoon, would affect mostly northern locales. Saturday's temperatures should be very similar to those of Friday.
For Sunday, temperatures should be a few degrees warmer- in the mid to upper 80s, except locally cooler along the immediate South coast. This, combined with an approaching cold front, should lead to more widespread showers and thunderstorms for everyone.
Heading into next week, it appears the cold front may hang out near the area and wash out. This is consistent with a Bermuda High pattern, as the front encounters resistance from the strong high pressure offshore. Therefore, there could be chances of showers and thunderstorms and lingering humidity each day. There could be a fairly concentrated round of showers and thunderstorms during the day on Monday. In addition, if the front really does wash out, we could very well see temperatures pushing 90 degrees!
Tuesday should be generally fair- maybe the only true dry day of the forecast period. There could be a rogue thunderstorm in the NW hills at night, where instability is higher, but other than that, Tuesday could be largely dry. With downsloping flow, it should be warm and dry, so I'll go a bit over guidance, and call for highs generally in the mid 80s. This should be good news for those with BBQ and outdoor fireworks display plans for the fourth!
On Wednesday, chances for showers and thunderstorms increase again, as humidity levels increase and another frontal system approaches. Again, guidance looks a little too cool for my liking- I prefer mid 80s statewide. For now, will not try to time showers and thunderstorms on day 7, and just say there will be scattered thunderstorms at any point.
Looking into the long range, there does not seem to be any significant impetus for a pattern change. Temperatures should be at or a bit above average (but no major heat waves), with frequent chances of showers and thunderstorms- no it isn't going to rain all the time or every day. However, when you look at a long range prog this time of year and frontal boundaries are near the area, that is a good trigger for showers and thunderstorms.
Now, let's take a look at some of the systems lined up to affect our area, in graphical format. First, let's look at the round of showers and thunderstorms for late tomorrow night.
You can see this particular band of showers and thunderstorms affects more of the state. And you can also easily trace the cold front, from Texas to Upstate NY, moving only very slowly Eastward. That is why the weekend will largely be unsettled.
Anyway, that is all for now! Enjoy the rest of your week and Fourth of July weekend, and heed any warnings about lightning if you are at a pool, the beach, or a ball game.