Felt like spring outside today with snow quickly melting and temperatures well above normal. There will be more days like this rather than cold for the next 10-15 days. However, big changes are afoot in the pattern and will make it here in about two weeks.
Currently: Surface warm front extends from NE MO into far W PA. An area of moderate rain has develped ahead of this warm front over much of the mid-Atlantic states and is moving NNE. This rain will affect the state tonight.
Tonight: Tonight will not be a cold night, but will be a rainy night. Temperatures will be fairly uniform, due to both the lack of radiational cooling and, believe it or not, sea breezes along the south coast. Lows should be in the lower 40s. Rain develops around 9 PM in the SW and about midnight in the NE. It should rain pretty hard for a few hours and then end. Amounts around half an inch possible.
Tomorrow: Very warm. Near record highs possible. I will add a climate section on the bottom for stats nerds who want to see if their backyard is getting close, but either way, it will be warm. Highs should be in the low to mid 50s, with a few locations possibly warmer than that. The only fly in the ointment is a little upper level disturbance which will move through around midday and could produce a round of light showers or sprinkles. This could deter heating in a few areas.
Tomorrow Night/Friday... Tomorrow night's lows should get into the low to mid 40s and then not rise much during the day on Friday. A very strong cold front will move through early Friday morning, accompanied by a wind shift and some decent gusts. But other than that, the weather will be fair.
Long Term: The weekend and beyond: There is a chance of a small accumulating snow event on Saturday, especially for the south coast. There is no real storm to speak of, but we do have a very strong Canadian high pressing very cold air down into the region, as well as very warm air south of the Mason Dixon line. These are good ingredients to get an overrunning snow event. However, the high pressure is really too far south to give snow for much of Connecticut, since the high pressure system is modeled over the Saint Lawrence River. We'd need that high pressure to move further up into Quebec to provide significant snow to Connecticut, especially given that it's a 1046 (very strong) high! As is, a light accumulation could fall over the south coast, 2" or less. We will watch for trends, since most trends this season have been north. Saturday will be remarkably colder, with lows from the mid teens to low 20s and highs in the mid 30s.
Sunday should be a cool respite between two systems, with highs generally in the low 40s.
Another system tracks to the west of the local area on Monday. What type of precipitation falls across the state will depend largely on where that low tracks and how strong it is. If the low is weaker and way west, a light wintry mix would fall, with mostly frozen north and a mix to rain south. If the system tracks closer and is stronger, any mixed precipitation would change quickly to rain. For now, I'll call for highs near 40 on Monday and assume that the cold air holds in a bit better than progged.
Beyond this period, nearly all of the statistical guidance available is pointing to a very anomalously warm pattern. That is reflected in my forecast for Tuesday and Wednesday, with highs in the upper 40s Tuesday and low 50s Wednesday, but this will also last well beyond this period. There could also be periodic rain Tuesday and Wednesday, from the various waves of low pressure tracking to our west. However, it is an exercise in futility at this time range trying to time each period of rain. This segues very well into the long range portion of the discussion.
Long Range: As mentioned above, there is a long-duration warm pattern at hand. However, it will also be a wet pattern, as most days will feature rain at least some of the time. And how should a warm and wet pattern end? Well, even warmer and wetter, right? Much of the long range guidance is setting up a signal for a very large, very warm, and very wet storm centered around the 1/22-23 time period, as a strong low pressure system would cut off over the Ohio Valley before moving up the St Lawrence Seaway. This storm could very well be the catalyst for a major pattern change, as the same ridge that will produce all the warm weather here gets lifted into Eastern Canada and becomes a block. Nearly all long range guidance is pointing to a pattern that would much more largely favor cold and snow into this region toward the end of the month and into February...
Climate Section: Here are some record highs, with the year in parentheses, followed by my forecast highs for tomorrow:
BDR: Record: 52 (1980, 1975). Forecast: 56
BDL: Record: 57 (1913) Forecast: 56
So, Bridgeport/Sikorsky should easily break their record.
Bradley Field, which has a much longer period of record, should come close.
Let's take a look at some of our weather systems that will be affecting our state in graphical format.
First, tonight's rain event.
Currently: Surface warm front extends from NE MO into far W PA. An area of moderate rain has develped ahead of this warm front over much of the mid-Atlantic states and is moving NNE. This rain will affect the state tonight.
Tonight: Tonight will not be a cold night, but will be a rainy night. Temperatures will be fairly uniform, due to both the lack of radiational cooling and, believe it or not, sea breezes along the south coast. Lows should be in the lower 40s. Rain develops around 9 PM in the SW and about midnight in the NE. It should rain pretty hard for a few hours and then end. Amounts around half an inch possible.
Tomorrow: Very warm. Near record highs possible. I will add a climate section on the bottom for stats nerds who want to see if their backyard is getting close, but either way, it will be warm. Highs should be in the low to mid 50s, with a few locations possibly warmer than that. The only fly in the ointment is a little upper level disturbance which will move through around midday and could produce a round of light showers or sprinkles. This could deter heating in a few areas.
Tomorrow Night/Friday... Tomorrow night's lows should get into the low to mid 40s and then not rise much during the day on Friday. A very strong cold front will move through early Friday morning, accompanied by a wind shift and some decent gusts. But other than that, the weather will be fair.
Long Term: The weekend and beyond: There is a chance of a small accumulating snow event on Saturday, especially for the south coast. There is no real storm to speak of, but we do have a very strong Canadian high pressing very cold air down into the region, as well as very warm air south of the Mason Dixon line. These are good ingredients to get an overrunning snow event. However, the high pressure is really too far south to give snow for much of Connecticut, since the high pressure system is modeled over the Saint Lawrence River. We'd need that high pressure to move further up into Quebec to provide significant snow to Connecticut, especially given that it's a 1046 (very strong) high! As is, a light accumulation could fall over the south coast, 2" or less. We will watch for trends, since most trends this season have been north. Saturday will be remarkably colder, with lows from the mid teens to low 20s and highs in the mid 30s.
Sunday should be a cool respite between two systems, with highs generally in the low 40s.
Another system tracks to the west of the local area on Monday. What type of precipitation falls across the state will depend largely on where that low tracks and how strong it is. If the low is weaker and way west, a light wintry mix would fall, with mostly frozen north and a mix to rain south. If the system tracks closer and is stronger, any mixed precipitation would change quickly to rain. For now, I'll call for highs near 40 on Monday and assume that the cold air holds in a bit better than progged.
Beyond this period, nearly all of the statistical guidance available is pointing to a very anomalously warm pattern. That is reflected in my forecast for Tuesday and Wednesday, with highs in the upper 40s Tuesday and low 50s Wednesday, but this will also last well beyond this period. There could also be periodic rain Tuesday and Wednesday, from the various waves of low pressure tracking to our west. However, it is an exercise in futility at this time range trying to time each period of rain. This segues very well into the long range portion of the discussion.
Long Range: As mentioned above, there is a long-duration warm pattern at hand. However, it will also be a wet pattern, as most days will feature rain at least some of the time. And how should a warm and wet pattern end? Well, even warmer and wetter, right? Much of the long range guidance is setting up a signal for a very large, very warm, and very wet storm centered around the 1/22-23 time period, as a strong low pressure system would cut off over the Ohio Valley before moving up the St Lawrence Seaway. This storm could very well be the catalyst for a major pattern change, as the same ridge that will produce all the warm weather here gets lifted into Eastern Canada and becomes a block. Nearly all long range guidance is pointing to a pattern that would much more largely favor cold and snow into this region toward the end of the month and into February...
Climate Section: Here are some record highs, with the year in parentheses, followed by my forecast highs for tomorrow:
BDR: Record: 52 (1980, 1975). Forecast: 56
BDL: Record: 57 (1913) Forecast: 56
So, Bridgeport/Sikorsky should easily break their record.
Bradley Field, which has a much longer period of record, should come close.
Let's take a look at some of our weather systems that will be affecting our state in graphical format.
First, tonight's rain event.
You can see on this map, midnight tonight, it is already raining across the entire state, with heavier rain in NJ poised to make it in, from the weak low near Toronto and attendant warm front.
Next, let's take a look at the snow potential for this weekend.
Next, let's take a look at the snow potential for this weekend.
You can see there is light snow in N PA and NNJ, moving East, that could graze the south coast with a light snow accumulation. As modeled, this doesn't have much room to come north, because that high pressure center needs to be north of there to get significant precipitation to Connecticut. However, even high pressure centers can be modeled incorrectly, so we will continue to watch.
That's all for now, have a great rest of your week!
-GP!
That's all for now, have a great rest of your week!
-GP!
