A hotter pattern overall is commencing right now. Overall, this pattern will be more summer-like, and could bring about more chances for thunderstorms.
First off, for tonight, seems like the ECMWF was right, as dry air aloft kept any thunderstorms from developing. So will not mention any precipitation in the forecast. It will be a warm night, with lows 65-70. Some locations along the south coast may not make it below 70!
Tomorrow: Sunny and hot. Highs near 90 statewide. No sea breezes. No chances for precipitation. A few areas in the CT River Valley may make a run at 95.
Tomorrow Night and Thursday: More humid with better thunderstorm chances, as a backdoor cold front will approach the state, but not get here. The proximity of the front could serve as a trigger. Overall coverage will not be that high, but it seems like there will be two potential times for thunderstorm development- one centered around mid to late morning, and another late in the day. As for temperatures, they will be a bit more tricky. If it's sunnier and less stormy than forecast, it could be hotter than what I am forecasting here. There won't be any sea breeze to worry about. In general, a little cooler than Wednesday, due to clouds and possible precipitation- generally in the upper 80s, though CT Valley locations could pass 90.
Longer Term- For Friday, The backdoor cold front will pass through late in the day on Friday. However, it will die as it does so. Despite the frontolysis, there will be a good chance for showers and thunderstorms late Friday into Friday night. It appears that any storms should come after daytime heating, so temperatures will still be able to be quite warm, with highs in the upper 80s to near 90. Once again, it could be a couple degrees warmer, in the low 90s, in the CT Valley. (The I 91 corridor North of the Merritt).
For Saturday, the backdoor front will have mostly died by this point. However, it could leave a little cooler air in its wake. Therefore, skies should clear and temps should remain quite warm. Humidity levels will be lower than those of Friday. Expect high temperatures in the mid to upper 80s.
A traditional cold front will go through late Saturday night. This front has little to no moisture associated with it, so don't expect a line of thunderstorms with it. Do expect temperatures to cool to more seasonable levels, in the 80s. Some locations in the NW Hills may even stay in the 70s on Sunday. Expect similar conditions through early next week. The Bermuda High may begin to flex its muscle after that, with more hot weather returning beyond the 14th or so.
Now, here is a look at our weather in graphical format. First, let's look at the GFS model predicted high temperatures for tomorrow.
First off, for tonight, seems like the ECMWF was right, as dry air aloft kept any thunderstorms from developing. So will not mention any precipitation in the forecast. It will be a warm night, with lows 65-70. Some locations along the south coast may not make it below 70!
Tomorrow: Sunny and hot. Highs near 90 statewide. No sea breezes. No chances for precipitation. A few areas in the CT River Valley may make a run at 95.
Tomorrow Night and Thursday: More humid with better thunderstorm chances, as a backdoor cold front will approach the state, but not get here. The proximity of the front could serve as a trigger. Overall coverage will not be that high, but it seems like there will be two potential times for thunderstorm development- one centered around mid to late morning, and another late in the day. As for temperatures, they will be a bit more tricky. If it's sunnier and less stormy than forecast, it could be hotter than what I am forecasting here. There won't be any sea breeze to worry about. In general, a little cooler than Wednesday, due to clouds and possible precipitation- generally in the upper 80s, though CT Valley locations could pass 90.
Longer Term- For Friday, The backdoor cold front will pass through late in the day on Friday. However, it will die as it does so. Despite the frontolysis, there will be a good chance for showers and thunderstorms late Friday into Friday night. It appears that any storms should come after daytime heating, so temperatures will still be able to be quite warm, with highs in the upper 80s to near 90. Once again, it could be a couple degrees warmer, in the low 90s, in the CT Valley. (The I 91 corridor North of the Merritt).
For Saturday, the backdoor front will have mostly died by this point. However, it could leave a little cooler air in its wake. Therefore, skies should clear and temps should remain quite warm. Humidity levels will be lower than those of Friday. Expect high temperatures in the mid to upper 80s.
A traditional cold front will go through late Saturday night. This front has little to no moisture associated with it, so don't expect a line of thunderstorms with it. Do expect temperatures to cool to more seasonable levels, in the 80s. Some locations in the NW Hills may even stay in the 70s on Sunday. Expect similar conditions through early next week. The Bermuda High may begin to flex its muscle after that, with more hot weather returning beyond the 14th or so.
Now, here is a look at our weather in graphical format. First, let's look at the GFS model predicted high temperatures for tomorrow.
This map is a pretty good illustration of how the heat should play out tomorrow. Basically, the whole state is above 90, with the exception of two normally cooler locations- the NW Hills, and the immediate South Coast. Next, we'll look at the thunderstorms expected to affect the state later Friday and Friday night.
Most of the state does pretty well in this setup. Thunderstorms over Western Connecticut are poised to move east into the rest of the state on this map. As is fairly typical of summertime convective events, the immediate SE coast should get the least, while the NW hills get the most.
That's all for now, have a great rest of your week!
-GP!
That's all for now, have a great rest of your week!
-GP!
