Good evening from Southern Connecticut Weather.
Can you do, what you do, when you absolutely have to do it.
There are no higher stakes than when the hype is high, a big storm is coming, and all eyes are on you to get the forecast right. There is a lot to consider. If you come in too high with snow totals, the public may consider the storm (or forecast) a bust. If you come in too low, people may be caught unprepared for the severity of a winter storm. Big storms are when you have to be at your best.
With confidence in a big storm higher than normal, we issued our first call forecast for a "blockbuster" storm on 1/22--earlier than normal. There were a number of ways we could have gone, especially considering the risk of mixing that was showing up on models. With even more uncertainty by the time we issued our final call forecast, we stuck to the first forecast.
Did that work out? Let's take a look.
Can you do, what you do, when you absolutely have to do it.
There are no higher stakes than when the hype is high, a big storm is coming, and all eyes are on you to get the forecast right. There is a lot to consider. If you come in too high with snow totals, the public may consider the storm (or forecast) a bust. If you come in too low, people may be caught unprepared for the severity of a winter storm. Big storms are when you have to be at your best.
With confidence in a big storm higher than normal, we issued our first call forecast for a "blockbuster" storm on 1/22--earlier than normal. There were a number of ways we could have gone, especially considering the risk of mixing that was showing up on models. With even more uncertainty by the time we issued our final call forecast, we stuck to the first forecast.
Did that work out? Let's take a look.
Above: the final verification map, using NWS reports and approximate locations. Unfortunately, the New York NWS never issued an update to the Sunday totals, so the numbers in southern CT may be lower than they actually are. Special shoutout to Jacob, a budding meteorologist who wants to follow his passion when he gets to college, for submitting one of the Vernon snowfall totals!
Timing
Despite uncertainty over onset timing, we did an excellent job.
There is a chance the onset time slides a little later in the morning, but overall the expectation is that snow begins from SW to NE between 6-10am. It may take a little time for the atmosphere to saturate because temperatures will likely be near zero or in the single digits Sunday morning, but once things get going we will quickly go to moderate and heavy. It is strongly advised to be off the roads once this begins.
Sure enough, while some areas started a little before 6am, Bridgeport reported its first snowflakes at 6:20am. Indeed, once we started snowing it did not take long for moderate and then heavy snow to start falling across the state. We were a little off with the timing of sleet, but not by much. We were right in timing the heaviest snow. Overall the timing forecast was excellent, though looking back at the forecast I could have been a little clearer in discussing the end time rather than just referencing models.
Grade: A
Snow Accumulation
This is an aside, but for the first time in 10 years we had a storm bring 6" of snow from DC to Boston. It was a pretty easy call in hindsight, but pattern recognition is important and it was spot on here. This was a big dog, with this being a top ten snowstorm for Hartford (BDL) and top 15 for Bridgeport.
The soundings that I posted were very helpful, because they helped our forecast that the mixing line would not significantly hurt snowfall totals. That was the biggest unknown in the forecast, and we were on the money in the face of some guidance wanting to punch the sleet line deep into the state. To be sure, there were lower totals right along the coast, but all but a baffling 9" report and 10" report were within an inch of our forecast. Several coastal communities were over a foot, including Bridgeport.
In addition, we added text calling for isolated amounts over 20" in NW and/or NE CT, and in NW CT we had isolated reports. The forecast was as good as you can get. Going 8-12" in southern CT would've been too low. Excellent, excellent call.
Grade: A
Wind & Power Outages
We didn't expect significant wind and that was the case. It was breezy but never overwhelmingly so. Power outages were minimal as a result.
Grade: A
Overall Impact
We were very clear that this was going to be a high impact event.
This is likely to be a high end event. There will be heavy snow, high end accumulation, and cold temperatures throughout the storm, especially if the mix line remains well to the south. Road conditions will be severely impacted from Sunday possibly through Monday, with residual impacts possible into Tuesday. Everything is likely to be closed on Monday, with a chance of delays and cancellations on Tuesday.
We had very heavy snow for much of Sunday which led to those high end accumulations. It was the coldest storm that we've had in a while as well, with snow starting with many locations in the single digits and wind chills below zero. Roads were a mess as expected and not only did we have issues Monday but residual delays and cancellations on Tuesday. Excellent call.
Grade: A
Overall Grade
I didn't even need to calculate the numbers! This may be the first time that I can recall that we were solidly in A territory all the way through. Very proud of this forecast. Only downhill from here haha.
Final Grade: A
As always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.
Thank you for reading SCW.
-DB
Timing
Despite uncertainty over onset timing, we did an excellent job.
There is a chance the onset time slides a little later in the morning, but overall the expectation is that snow begins from SW to NE between 6-10am. It may take a little time for the atmosphere to saturate because temperatures will likely be near zero or in the single digits Sunday morning, but once things get going we will quickly go to moderate and heavy. It is strongly advised to be off the roads once this begins.
Sure enough, while some areas started a little before 6am, Bridgeport reported its first snowflakes at 6:20am. Indeed, once we started snowing it did not take long for moderate and then heavy snow to start falling across the state. We were a little off with the timing of sleet, but not by much. We were right in timing the heaviest snow. Overall the timing forecast was excellent, though looking back at the forecast I could have been a little clearer in discussing the end time rather than just referencing models.
Grade: A
Snow Accumulation
This is an aside, but for the first time in 10 years we had a storm bring 6" of snow from DC to Boston. It was a pretty easy call in hindsight, but pattern recognition is important and it was spot on here. This was a big dog, with this being a top ten snowstorm for Hartford (BDL) and top 15 for Bridgeport.
The soundings that I posted were very helpful, because they helped our forecast that the mixing line would not significantly hurt snowfall totals. That was the biggest unknown in the forecast, and we were on the money in the face of some guidance wanting to punch the sleet line deep into the state. To be sure, there were lower totals right along the coast, but all but a baffling 9" report and 10" report were within an inch of our forecast. Several coastal communities were over a foot, including Bridgeport.
In addition, we added text calling for isolated amounts over 20" in NW and/or NE CT, and in NW CT we had isolated reports. The forecast was as good as you can get. Going 8-12" in southern CT would've been too low. Excellent, excellent call.
Grade: A
Wind & Power Outages
We didn't expect significant wind and that was the case. It was breezy but never overwhelmingly so. Power outages were minimal as a result.
Grade: A
Overall Impact
We were very clear that this was going to be a high impact event.
This is likely to be a high end event. There will be heavy snow, high end accumulation, and cold temperatures throughout the storm, especially if the mix line remains well to the south. Road conditions will be severely impacted from Sunday possibly through Monday, with residual impacts possible into Tuesday. Everything is likely to be closed on Monday, with a chance of delays and cancellations on Tuesday.
We had very heavy snow for much of Sunday which led to those high end accumulations. It was the coldest storm that we've had in a while as well, with snow starting with many locations in the single digits and wind chills below zero. Roads were a mess as expected and not only did we have issues Monday but residual delays and cancellations on Tuesday. Excellent call.
Grade: A
Overall Grade
I didn't even need to calculate the numbers! This may be the first time that I can recall that we were solidly in A territory all the way through. Very proud of this forecast. Only downhill from here haha.
Final Grade: A
As always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.
Thank you for reading SCW.
-DB
