Good evening from Southern Connecticut Weather.
Much like yesterday I don't have much time, but not much time is needed to grade this one. It's a quick turnaround, as more winter storms are on the horizon.
Much like yesterday I don't have much time, but not much time is needed to grade this one. It's a quick turnaround, as more winter storms are on the horizon.
Above: the verification map for the clipper yesterday. Overall, a good map, with a little bit of a surprise in southeast and south central CT!
Timing
I thought this would be a fast mover, but wow--this thing was out of the state for most by midnight! There are some point deductions there. Snow did begin around the time I expected, and the heaviest was toward the end for most, which fortunately crossed over with when I forecast the worst to be--it was just compressed. I don't recall a system that wrapped up faster than expected by this much in recent memory, but it wasn't an impactful error.
Grade: B
Snow Accumulation
I wasn't enthusiastic about a C-2" zone, but I'm glad I gave respect to possible coastal warmth. Unlike last time, the shoreline had two very important factors working in their favor. First, temperatures were cold to start, rather than the last system where coastal folks were waiting for temps to drop. That said, temperatures blasted to the mid 30s for some coastal spots during the storm, which leads to the second factor. Unlike the last system, we had actual moderate to isolated heavy precipitation falling. That helped overcome temperatures above freezing at the shoreline, for most. Note that one spot in far SE CT. Even though the region did well overall, along the immediate coast there was enough warmth to overcome precipitation, and that spot reported just a coating.
While I considered a 1-3" zone in the coastal zone and in hindsight that would have worked well, most reports were within striking distance of that 2" ceiling. Still, it was a bit off, so we deduct points here. For interior CT, I think the 2-4 call worked just fine. Although most ended up in the 2-3" range as I stated in the final forecast, the last minute trend really required a ceiling of 4" in my opinion. I know some areas in southern CT were at or near 4", but the NWS published observations did not report a 4" number in CT.
Again, snow accumulation is weighted twice, and after the bust last system, things are all right in the world again with a good, but not perfect, forecast. Interior CT carries the day again. Shoreline climatology is tricky! Maybe my mention of Guilford brought snow lovers there good luck.
Grade: B+
Impact
I didn't realize until I reread my final forecast that the update came with language about trending toward a moderate impact event. I'm glad I said that! The first call thought it would be minor, but with more snow on the table in the final forecast, I thought there would be a greater chance of delays. Probably could have had more direct wording, but that's semantics. Worth a minor deduction though.
Grade: A-
Final Grade
Overall, the forecast was solid. Nothing spectacular, but I am happy with the snowfall forecast. Southern folks finally had one fall in their favor. I'll take the grade, because the real grind of the season is coming.
There will be no easy forecasts ahead.
Final Grade: B+
As always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.
Thank you for reading SCW.
-DB
Timing
I thought this would be a fast mover, but wow--this thing was out of the state for most by midnight! There are some point deductions there. Snow did begin around the time I expected, and the heaviest was toward the end for most, which fortunately crossed over with when I forecast the worst to be--it was just compressed. I don't recall a system that wrapped up faster than expected by this much in recent memory, but it wasn't an impactful error.
Grade: B
Snow Accumulation
I wasn't enthusiastic about a C-2" zone, but I'm glad I gave respect to possible coastal warmth. Unlike last time, the shoreline had two very important factors working in their favor. First, temperatures were cold to start, rather than the last system where coastal folks were waiting for temps to drop. That said, temperatures blasted to the mid 30s for some coastal spots during the storm, which leads to the second factor. Unlike the last system, we had actual moderate to isolated heavy precipitation falling. That helped overcome temperatures above freezing at the shoreline, for most. Note that one spot in far SE CT. Even though the region did well overall, along the immediate coast there was enough warmth to overcome precipitation, and that spot reported just a coating.
While I considered a 1-3" zone in the coastal zone and in hindsight that would have worked well, most reports were within striking distance of that 2" ceiling. Still, it was a bit off, so we deduct points here. For interior CT, I think the 2-4 call worked just fine. Although most ended up in the 2-3" range as I stated in the final forecast, the last minute trend really required a ceiling of 4" in my opinion. I know some areas in southern CT were at or near 4", but the NWS published observations did not report a 4" number in CT.
Again, snow accumulation is weighted twice, and after the bust last system, things are all right in the world again with a good, but not perfect, forecast. Interior CT carries the day again. Shoreline climatology is tricky! Maybe my mention of Guilford brought snow lovers there good luck.
Grade: B+
Impact
I didn't realize until I reread my final forecast that the update came with language about trending toward a moderate impact event. I'm glad I said that! The first call thought it would be minor, but with more snow on the table in the final forecast, I thought there would be a greater chance of delays. Probably could have had more direct wording, but that's semantics. Worth a minor deduction though.
Grade: A-
Final Grade
Overall, the forecast was solid. Nothing spectacular, but I am happy with the snowfall forecast. Southern folks finally had one fall in their favor. I'll take the grade, because the real grind of the season is coming.
There will be no easy forecasts ahead.
Final Grade: B+
As always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.
Thank you for reading SCW.
-DB
